Happy New Year ! ! ! (Published 12/28/05)
The Optimist hopes 2006 will be the best year ever for all of us. He
invites the market manipulators and COT commercials to close out their
bankrupting silver and gold short sales, to open profitable long positions,
and to follow our lead so they can share the prosperity and excitement that
lie ahead for us.
Resolution for 2006
We have arrived into the magical time zone in which we can relax and enjoy
happy time with friends and relatives, the gifts we have given and received,
and a plentiful bounty of food and beverage, without yet being rudely
reminded about reality by stepping on the scales or opening the stack of
bills which will soon follow. This is also the traditional time to resolve to
stop smoking and drinking, to reduce weight and exercise more, and similar
self improvement fantasies that we seriously think are possible until we
happily forget them over the next few days.
The Optimist will focus instead on a resolution to improve an investment
area in which he has been a notoriously poor performer. The Optimist vows to
eliminate leverage from his investment portfolio. As a relative youngster
more than 30 years ago, I was one of the very few people to buy IBM stock and
actually take a loss because I bought too early on margin and then sold in
fear when prices dropped further before staging the rally I hoped to profit
on. In 1979, I bought futures in gold as it first rose above $400, only to
get stopped out at a loss when it corrected back to $390 before rocketing to
$850 without me. In 1981, I bought futures in 30 year bonds at 52, but was
again stopped out as bonds plunged into the 40s before beginning a two decade
rise to much more than double those early levels. In more recent years, there
were other occasions in which I was right on market direction, but too early
in timing and I lost money because of leverage and fear. All of those
previous timing and leverage errors were valuable lessons to prepare me for
this unprecedented bull market for silver and gold. My resolution for this
year is to insure that I do not miss the explosive moves in silver and gold
which are certainly coming. This Optimist will maintain a substantial fully
funded core position of investments in both precious metals markets without
the leverage that transforms fear into panic, will only take modest partial
profits near the top of channel, and will reinvest those profits near the
bottom of channel to build a larger core position.
Silver Hopes
The Optimist has silver hopes for desirable events which may be unlikely,
but are nonetheless possible during 2006. First on the Optimist's silver wish
list is a strong hope that silver prices will not explode yet, but will
become even more volatile during 2006. The Optimist wants frequent price
spikes to the top and quick crashes down to the bottom of the bullish
channel! Volatility implies price spikes which allow the Optimist to take
partial profits on a small portion of his position, and heart stopping
mini-price crashes that make it easy for the Optimist to convert all his
accumulated fiat funny paper into the real money of physical silver and gold
and the shares related to them. The Optimist is sure that the silver rocket
will lift off in the future. The silver hope here is that the lift off can be
further delayed at least another year so we all have more time to accumulate
additional reserves for the once in a lifetime trip!
Another of the Optimist's silver hopes for 2006 is that independent
candidates will be successful at the polls for state offices and for the U.S.
Congress. The Repubocrats have had a monopoly on political
power in America for too long. As a result, Repubocrats have merged into a
like minded monolith which consistently spends too much taxpayer money and
which always expands the power and expense of government at all levels. The
only significant choice we now have at the polls is whether we want the
Repubocrats branch which taxes and spends too much or the branch which
borrows and spends too much. Repubocrats shout endlessly about what groups
they want to spend more on in perpetual giveaway programs and how they
want to expand the government without limit for their favorite initiatives.
The only times Repubocrats even mention the disastrous debt situation which
our nation faces is in connection with their vague fantasies about unknown
politicians in the future possibly reducing something to pay a little for the
Repubocrats clearly defined plans to substantially increase spending now. The
Optimist has silver hopes that someone will have the courage and integrity to
run a major political campaign which honestly levels with the American people
about our out of control debt and our massively bloated government. Although
the glimmer from this part of my silver hope shines a little less brightly
because the probability may be low, the Optimist nevertheless hopes that some
of you who read this message may choose to run for office in 2006 as
Independents. America needs to break the Repubocrats stranglehold on the
political process. One way to accomplish that is to have successful
Independent parties which are strong enough to carry into the mainstream our
united voices calling for a smaller, more efficient, and less costly
government at all levels, and a return to the honest money of silver and gold
as required by the Constitution. Interjecting your voice into the political
process is just as important as contributing resources to the Independent
candidate of your choice. 2006 is a great year to push, or pull, or get out
of the way.
True to his name, the Optimist has shining silver hopes that during 2006,
people with proven leadership skills and a clearly demonstrated devotion to
freedom and financial integrity in government will step forward to launch
exploratory efforts leading to a run for President in 2008. Try to imagine
the electricity and excitement that would be generated during an Independent
primary in which Congressman Ron Paul, and Jim Sinclair, and your favorite
Independent candidate debate directly to the American people about the
serious problems inflicted on America by a century of unchallenged rule by
Repubocrats. Even if there was no chance of electoral victory, the simple
process of educating the people about financial freedom would make all of us
winners. Add into the mix that America may finally be ready to hear an honest
view about the wrong financial road our nation has traveled for so long, and
about the difficult adjustments that are necessary to correct our problems,
and we will all be energized by the dazzling brilliance of a silver hope that
together we can win in 2008 and chart the path for a revitalized America. The
Optimist asks everyone to send new years greetings to their favorite
political Independent, and to strongly request that person to step forward to
the leadership tasks which lie ahead. 2006 is the year to energize the
Independent political process which can result in victory in 2008 and can
begin the transformation into an America in which everyone can build a better
future for our children.
Golden Dreams
The Optimist's silver hopes are prospects that may be improbable but offer
at least a glimmer of possibility. In contrast, the Optimist also has a wish
list of golden dreams that even he cannot view as possible for 2006. Even
though the Optimist concedes that the following golden dreams are impossible
for 2006, it is nevertheless important to present those dreams as continuing
goals for the future. When the time is right, the Optimist is sure that all
of his golden dreams can become reality, and he will present more detail
about each topic in future commentaries.
And now on to the list of the Optimist's golden dreams. Here is an easy
one for a quick start. The U.S. Government will announce an irrevocable plan
to return to the constitutional money of silver and gold, before our worth
less fiat dollars become worthless.
Our Nation's political leaders will embark on the path to return our
government to its proper limited role of protecting rights and enforcing
responsibilities. Government should not be in business (such as the post
office), and should not provide "free" insurance (like FEMA
giveaways after a natural disaster). A smaller government will result in much
less of a tax burden, and taxes on income, savings, and investment can be
completely eliminated.
There will, in contrast, be sharp increases
in a tax on the combustion of hydrocarbons. That hydrocarbon
combustion tax will immediately help us conserve a vital resource, improve
our business and personal energy efficiency, encourage the development and
deployment of alternative forms of energy, and reduce the proportion of our
national wealth that we transfer to OPEC each day.
Personal responsibility will be more clearly
defined and enforced, and our nation's education system will be reformed, so
that many of the problems in society will be solved or substantially reduced.
The people will have a direct vote on the budget and
political power of each elected office. The politicians who win a
political campaign will be held accountable for fulfilling the promises they
make while running for the office.
Imbalances in world wide debt will be resolved and the structure of
international finance will be improved to eliminate current and future
problems.
The successor organization to the UN will emerge and will begin to lead
the world into peace and tranquility.
Best Wishes to All
2006 will be a dynamic time filled with opportunities, and punctuated with
problems. The Optimist wishes all readers health, wealth, and stealth (from
excessive taxes, crime, and big city turmoil). Cheers!
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