Your independent Swiss asset manager
THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND
THE TIMELESS ENERGY FUND
THE SIERRA MADRE GOLD AND SILVER VENTURE
CAPITAL FUND
NOVEMBER 30 , 2011
Silverinstitute
Silver/Ounces
in US$
|
Buy Date
|
Amount/oz.
|
Buy Price
|
Total (USD)
|
Price Today
|
Value Today
|
November 15, 2002
|
10'000.00
|
4.54
|
45'400.00
|
|
|
Total
|
10'000.00
|
4.54
|
45'400.00
|
32.16
|
321'600.00
|
Profit
|
|
|
|
|
276’200.00
|
Profit (in
%)
|
|
|
|
|
608%
|
OUR
LONG-TERM RECOMMENDATION
|
|
|
BUY
|
|
OUR
SHORT-TERM RECOMMENDATION
|
|
|
HOLD/BUY
|
|
1980 to 2011: From bear to bull
In 1980, the price of one ounce of silver reached $50. Today, the
purchasing power of the US dollar is substantially less than in 1980. The
price of one ounce of silver would have to rise to $ 135 to reflect the value
of the US dollar thirty years ago.
The long-term picture of the silver price
The bull market of the silver price started towards the end of 2002.
On the way from $ 4.02 to the recent high of $ 48.42 (an increase of 1,100%),
several significant corrections took place, the most severe one in 2008 when
the silver price sank by 56% only to jump 440% to a new high since the bull
market started. “The bull market is not over. However, at present, a
correction seems to be overdue.”, we wrote in
March. It is time to consider re-entering the market (if you have sold).
“Extremes never last but no extreme is an absolute extreme and
there is no guarantee that the extreme of 2006 will actually be repeated.”, we wrote in our last report. The 2006 peak was in
fact surpassed in March 2011, followed by a sharp correction.
In the past, excluding 1980, it would have paid off to play the
extremes, always assuming that one can buy back at the right moment which is
far from easy. A long-term investor may feel better simply remaining invested
as he believes that prices will eventually go much higher.
The medium-term picture of the silver price
Critics of technical analysis include well known fundamental analysts.
For example, Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts
are great for predicting the past." Warren Buffett has said, "I realized
technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and
didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there
was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."
Fundamental Considerations: THE RISING
SILVER DEMAND
Silver is unique. Its natural beauty is legendary. Its range of
applications is exceptionally broad. As a precious
metal, it has been a source of human adornment since the beginning of time.
Such as a component of fine tableware, appropriately called silverware. As a
light-sensitive element, it has revolutionized preservation of memories in
the form of photographic images. More recently, its unique properties
comprising of anti-bacterial qualities, corrosion resistance, malleability,
ductility, reflectivity and conductivity have opened new possibilities for a
myriad of other industrial applications.
The demand that pushes
the silver price higher
World Silver Demand in millions of ounces
(Source: World Silver Survey 2011)
Implied Net Investment demand, industrial demand and demand for coins cause the silver price to increase. Without it, the silver
price would never have performed as it did. Industrial demand and demand for coins
and medals are expected to grow further.
The Gold / Silver-Ratio
The gold/silver ratio has been steadily declining since its high in 1990 and reached a recent low early of this
year when the silver price just about touched $50 an ounce. Since then the
ratio has rebounded almost 30 points. This ratio may well move lower as the
silver price is poised to recover from its oversold level.
Silver is again our preferred precious metal!
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