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Below
are the numbers for soybean consumption in first seven months of crop year
for 2008/09 and 2009/10.
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Soybean
Consumption in first seven months of 2008/09
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|
(Metric Tons)
|
|
Crush
|
Exports
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Combined
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September
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3,276,153
|
481,268
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3,757,421
|
|
October
|
3,902,693
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4,658,425
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8,561,118
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November
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3,794,428
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4,387,222
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8,181,650
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December
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3,668,363
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3,974,350
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7,642,713
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January
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3,785,746
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4,570,448
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8,356,194
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February
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3,501,828
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4,311,998
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7,813,826
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March
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3,735,587
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2,759,809
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6,495,396
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|
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Total
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25,664,798
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25,143,520
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50,808,318
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Soybean
Consumption in first seven months of 2009/10
|
|
(Metric Tons)
|
|
Crush
|
Exports
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Combined
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|
September
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2,922,427
|
749,922
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3,672,349
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|
October
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4,225,611
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4,928,534
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9,154,145
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November
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4,361,609
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7,158,597
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11,520,206
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December
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4,473,684
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7,182,776
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11,656,460
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January
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4,419,797
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5,838,697
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10,258,494
|
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February
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4,037,521
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4,537,477
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8,574,998
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March
|
4,000,000
|
3,676,375
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7,676,375
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|
|
|
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Total
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28,440,649
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34,072,378
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62,513,027
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= Guesstimate
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Graphic of Soybean Overconsumption
Over two thirds of the US soybean crop has been consumed in first six months
of the 2009/10 crop year.
(Note that even if the USDA's insane estimates were true,
the numbers still don’t add up.)
Accumulated Exports Show Surging Demand
My reaction: Things are going to get really interesting in the next
two months. As I wrote in my first entry on Soybean Overconsumption:
What
this means
The soybean prices are going way up. How high they go depends on how long the
current overconsumption lasts. In other words, right now it would take a 50
to 80 percent rise in prices to ration demand until next harvest. However,
with [one month] two or three months more of the current
overconsumption, soybeans prices will have to double or triple to ration
demand.
Watch for the USDA’s Madoff Moment
As his ponzi scheme collapsed due to withdrawal requests, Madoff had to face
reality and shocked the world by admitting the truth. Investors who believed
they owned billions found they had a little over 100 million to divide among
themselves. The USDA, in the next [two] three to four months,
will also have to face the reality and admit to the world that the US is
missing a ten to twenty million metric tons of soybeans. The news should be
as well received as Madoff’s announcement.
Eric de Carbonnel
Market Skeptics
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