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Here
are a pair of articles about the recovery in Texas that simply did not
happen. Please consider New data, new story
on jobs.
For
much of 2009, Central Texas business leaders hung their hats on reports that
showed, even in a recession, Austin was still adding jobs.
Turns out there was a problem with those positive reports: They were wrong.
Revised figures show Austin lost more in '09, and numbers began to decline
earlier than thought.
The revised data also show that Texas as a whole
had a tougher job market last year than thought. The state lost 354,000 jobs
in 2009, which is 78,000 more than the 276,000 previously estimated,
according to the updated data.
The commission and its counterparts around the country revise their job data
each year based on newly available information from employers' tax records
that show how many people were on payrolls. The monthly numbers are
estimates, based on surveys from employers.
The California Employment Development Department
on March 1 reported the state had lost 292,000 more jobs in 2009 than
officials had thought; the new estimate is 871,000 jobs cut, compared with
the earlier estimate of 579,000. Oregon reported losing 28,000 more jobs in
2009 than previously estimated.
Texas
cannot escape budget shortfall
It goes to figure when unemployment is soaring, tax revenues will drop off.
And so they did. Please consider Officials: State
cannot escape budget shortfall.
The
Texas economy seems to have turned a corner, but the improvement will not be
enough for the state to avoid a significant shortfall in the next budget,
state officials said Monday.
Sales tax collections are slowly picking up as more jobs are added in Texas,
said John Heleman , the Texas comptroller's chief revenue estimator.
In February, the state's sales tax collections were down 8.8 percent compared
with the same month a year earlier. Though still in the red, the February
figure looked better than the previous months' double-digit decreases that
have put the state 13 percent behind last year's collections six months into
the budget year.
"One month certainly doesn't make a trend, but it is encouraging to see
that we are beginning to move in the right direction," said Heleman, who
added that he expects to see sales tax growth starting this summer.
The state's sales tax revenue collection is a key indicator of Texas' fiscal
health because that money fills more than half of the state's general revenue
fund, which pays for expenses such as education, health care and prisons.
Even so, the state's budget shortfall is expected to be about $11 billion at
a minimum and could reach as high as $15 billion, John O'Brien, the executive
director of the Legislative Budget Board, told the House Appropriations
Committee.
Heads In The Sand
It is pretty amazing when you can put a positive spin on horrendous data like
this:
"In February, the state's sales tax collections were down 8.8 percent
compared with the same month a year earlier. Though still in the red, the
February figure looked better than the previous months' double-digit
decreases that have put the state 13 percent behind last year's collections
six months into the budget year."
Good Grief.
Nationally, retail sales for February 2009 were completely shell-shocking
horrendous, and December 2009, and January 2010 figures were revised lower.
Please see Please consider Stimulus About To
Wither On Vine; A look At February Retail Sales for
details.
Texas could not even beat remarkably easy year over year comparisons, at
least judging from national sales numbers. Regardless, there should be no
conceivable way to spin that data positive, yet John Heleman, the Texas
comptroller's chief revenue estimator, managed to do just that.
Mish
GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com
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