Supply, Demand and USDollar

The economic theory in textbooks must be updated to account for Fiat Soft Science. An important third factor determines price. It is not demand, as most Deflationist Knuckleheads claim. It is not supply, as the moronic followers of Laffer Curve advocates insist. Instead, it is the falling USDollar since all commodities are priced in US$ terms. Lower demand will not result in lower commodity prices, since the monetary effect trumps all. The twist lies in the pricing denomination units, not in the Price Demand dynamics. An inflationary recession is deeply rooted in progress, with a depression next to occur. The price effects continue to confuse the challenged economists who have actually foreseen almost nothing in the current ongoing crisis. Their collective value is far less than garbage collectors who tend to the landfills, or landscapers who improve the appearance of home lawns. The crisis toward wreckage all occurs like a wrecked house floating over a waterfall for all to observe in sheer horror, as wealth evaporates and national sovereignty is forfeited to creditors.

What follows is my analysis of the erroneous path taken by the myopic Deflationist fools. The entire table of commodity prices is rising. Since the advent of QE, QE-Lite, and QE2, the full price structure has been rising steadily and noticeably. As the USDollar declines in value, the price of any commodity priced in US$ terms rises. The USDollar is not the constant, as they along with Wall Street mavens believe. Gold is constant, and the USDollar is falling versus Gold. This is basic science, but something that demand side Deflatinionist fools miss, and something that supply side Laffer fools miss. It is best to offer some solid evidence to these people with dull intellectual capacity, and move on without waiting for their awakening. Sadly, it is over their heads. Gold is the constant, as the USDollar moves in shifting patterns within its stable golden sphere. The commodities therefore all change in US$ terms as a result. The Knuckleheads miss utterly basic principles, spout nonsense repeatedly, remain steadfastly ignorant of their errors, learn nothing in the process, sound arrogant while on the wrong path, and continue to litter the landscape with their mental drivel. They are an annoyance, even inside the gold community.

SUPPLY & DEMAND SHIFTED IN SCALE

As the USDollar (and all major currencies) lose value from grand debasement, the vertical scale loses its price delineation markings. The entire vertical price scale itself suffers from inflation. The numbers blur, only to come into better focus with different numbers tied to the vertical tick markings. What used to be $8 is suddenly $10. What used to be $40 is suddenly $50. What used to be $120 is suddenly $150. The Deflationist Knuckleheads expect that slower economic activity will reduce demand, and thus bring about lower price. But they miss the bigger effect of price scale alteration and decay, the result of currency instability. The fiat paper monetary system, based upon denominated debt rather than sacrosanct inert metal with no counter-party risk, is decaying into a international scrap heap. All price dynamics change. It is that simple. It is that complex.

The honorable T-Ferguson pitched in with a comment that sets the tone. He said, "Remember Econ 101. Increasing the supply of an item decreases its value. More dollars equals a less valuable dollar. A declining dollar causes all things denominated in dollars (gold, oil, corn) to rise. The dollar is going to be declining farther with the advent of QE3. So the way must be prepared by smashing commodities first, so that they start their next upleg from a lower point. Thus, the fundamentals are overridden." Neither the demand siders nor supply siders can observe that the USDollar itself is subject to Supply & Demand dynamics, with the commodity prices as victims. The bad science artisans focus only upon Supply & Demand for the commodity, steeped in myopia. Note tragically that wages have not risen during the hyper-inflation episode that began with Quantitative Easing.

DEFLATIONIST KNUCKLEHEAD FOOLS

Turn to my colleague and friend Rob Kirby, who always has deep insight. The Jackass yields to Kirby as a smarter expert on monetary and bond matters. He helps to comprehend the failings of the Knucklehead gang. He said, "If those Deflationist guys had any sense at all, any economics knowledge at all, they would realize that if deflation were in progress, the interest rates would be much higher. Instead, the cost of money is near 0%, which goes hand in hand with hyper monetary inflation. If cash money was dear, then the price of money would not be free. It would instead be higher than say 8% or 10%, since it would be valuable. Today, money has been trashed in a grand debasement process, where money no longer has value. This is utterly basic." My response was thanks, but such basic points are way over the heads of Deflationist Knuckleheads who are focused only on the wrecked housing market and falling final demand generally within the USEconomy.

The Jackass has an old friend and fellow investor from 1999-2000, during the tech telecomm bubble & bust era. TomV has remained a friend, and will be served up as example of a typical misguided soul. He is constantly caught in the deflation nonsense coupled with bizarre notions of USDollar strength through USMilitay power and the lack of alternatives at the global level. So he compounds his ignorance, blind to the global revolt against the USDollar in the form of diversification, bilateral currency swap facilities, and broad energy & resource projects. TomV is a successful fellow who managed to garner a couple $million in profits from Apple stock and option transactions in the last two years. That does not make him intelligent, only shrewd and wealthy. Besides, he has a near 300-yard straight drive off the tee on golf courses. He is a great guy, still a friend. But our conversations have turned vacant and without substance on the other side of the wall. When confronted about wrong forecasts related to the USDollar or gold or crude oil, he repeats simply that "You will see. Like I have said, all countries will be forced to choose deflation." But my forecasts are 80% to 90% correct in the last three years, while his have been the opposite and lack value. He never offers any analysis of a wrong forecast, which have been many consistently. This is typical of the misguided clan. What the Jackass sees is another Deflationist Knucklehead incapable of debate, unable to comprehend the basic arguments of monetary matters and their effect on either the USEconomy or its financial markets. He sees falling values of homes, falling values of stocks, and falling prices of liquidated items at stores. TomV he does not comprehend the rising cost structure of commodities generally from the USDollar effect in impact, or broadly as all currencies decline. He sadly believes the USFed and its promise to tighten on rates, bank reserves, and drain of liquidity. He does not expect a QE3, even disguised. My belief is TomV could not detect it in disguise. He does not see the bluff.

My response has been steady over the last several months. The Jackass argues, "The key part is the second half that you constantly ignore, miss, and are blind to. QE3 will be rolled out strong firm and powerful. Gold will tell you, as it calls the USFed's bluff. It knows how to properly interpret such news. Gold is smarter than the Deflationists, and contradicts them. The gold price has risen a few hundred $$$ while Deflation Knuckleheads like you continue to have your heads lodged firmly up a nether orifice. Gold expects a brisk QE3 soon to be announced that you cannot see. When Bill Gross of PIMCO says QE3 is unlikely, he is goading the USFed. He has shown tremendous disrespect for the entire USTreasury complex recently. When QE3 starts, or better described as Global QE begins, Gross will probably not join the USTBonds again, but rather the Gold train. All nations have chosen hyper-inflation, will continue to choose hyper-inflation, or else the Elite will go broke. This is a truly dumb clueless comment. The Q3 program will not end, only its public billboards will be taken down, since they cause bad publicity. They will inflate but much more in secrecy, and try to suppress the rising prices with controls, but they will fail badly. They will blame the speculators and try to limit their attempts to protect against the falling USDollar. They will try to control the financial markets more, but fail with that also. You have shown a consistent lack of comprehension for much of anything regarding the monetary effects of the QE programs. All you see are the asset crunches in housing and products caught in liquidation. You are half blind. The Deflationist Knuckleheads are focused on housing and mortgage bond assets, plus the cost of labor, which are all distractions to the hyper monetary inflation. You do not read the creditors well. Foreigners are feeling a nightmare on US-based assets, and try to flee from them."

My favorite line with friend TomV points to how Deflation and Inflation will both continue, create a nightmare of a storm in the economy and financial sector, and continue to confuse most people. Instead of demonstrating comprehension, he constantly repeats his errant mantra and another wrong forecast after a skein of wrong forecasts. Thus the lack of intellectual acumen typical to his misguided clan. No, his crude oil forecast of $50 did not come to pass. No, his strong USDollar rally in the last six months did not come to pass. No, his gold forecasts of a 20% retreat did not come to pass. My refusal to follow his advice and sell all the gold & silver in accounts in December during the consolidation has been a good decision. Instead of awakening, he goes deeper into the wrong chamber of perceptions. He does not understand the entire price structure dynamics in US$ terms, and its separation from the Supply & Demand dynamics that move away from the product (like silver or wheat or cotton) and move toward its USDollar pricing. The blindness, stubbornness, and inability to dissect past errors makes the Deflationist clan a laughingstock. If the Deflation Knuckleheads were correct about demand serving as the key influence on price, then gasoline would not have doubled in price in the last 3 or 4 years. Gasoline demand has fallen, a contradiction gone unnoticed. It is about the USDollar which the USFed has debased. The QE and QE2 initiatives have flooded the system with increasingly debased money. One might even conclude that despite $3 trillion in fresh phony USDollars printed, they did not even notice, or gave it no importance. TomV is half blind like the others of that misguided clan. He even called the precious metals investors Gold Knuckleheads. My response was simple, that such a comment is stupid, since gold has risen from $800 to $1530 per ounce since the early months of 2009, when he began his vacant vapid empty Deflation commentary. A knucklehead by definition does not realize a near 100% profit in two years. A knucklehead misses the opportunity, and shows defiance.

TomV offered a rebuttal that lacks logic or insight. He responded to the Kirby argument about 0% cost money that contradicted the Cash is King principle implicit to the Deflationist clan. TomV recently wrote, "This is exactly what I am talking about. Again you and your cohorts are precisely correct on your theory, but your psychological brightness is leaving a lot to be desired. Expensive money is not just dictated by interest rates, which really indicates a lack of borrowing desire but most important the willingness by the bankers to lend." My response was direct and firm and quick. The Jackass replied, "Wrong again, Tom. The cost of money is always a reflection of the value of money. Banks are not lending because they are insolvent. Geez, I hope you noticed that great event as their stocks descended over 80% across the board in 2008. Geez, I hope you noticed the FASB accounting rules changes that permitted the banks to hide their insolvency. Geez, I hope you noticed the continuing load of seized homes in their foreclosure inventory (REO), which suffocate their balance sheets. Geez, I hope you noticed the new wave of Option ARMs that are resetting much higher to harm their borrowers, again. Maybe you did not notice these important things. Maybe you never read the Hat Trick Letter that you claim. Maybe you do not understand the articles and analysis. Maybe you dismiss the evidence. The Gold price confirms the 0% rate, which is far below the prevailing price inflation rate. The Gold price reflects the bank insolvency. The reluctance by bankers to lend reflects their insolvency. The inability to float corporate bonds by bank clients reflects their insolvency also. This seems to be something you choose to ignore, either from stubbornness or ignorance. You should stick with searching for the next Apple trade and seize it, and leave monetary analysis to the experts. It is a smart man who knows his limitations."

Last August 2010, TomV and the Jackass made a gentleman's bet, with full accounting to be made at the end of last year. He pounded the table with three forecasts nine months ago. 1) Crude oil would go to $100 per barrel. We agreed, but in doing so, he contradicted his silly Deflationist stance, without even realizing it, as most of their clan do. 2) The Euro would move to 100 parity. We disagreed, as the Jackass said 130 might be the lowest it goes, a couple months into the bet. A good call since 129 was the low, as the Euro went nowhere near 100 parity. He did not understand my point how the many national EuroBond yields enabled differentiation, thus taking pressure off the Euro currency. He did not respond to my point that the USFed would be last in hiking interest rates worldwide. 3) Lastly, Iran would be attacked. We disagreed, as the Jackass called this event absurd in the summer of 2005, the summer of 2006, the summer of 2007, the summer of 2008, the summer of 2009, and the summer of 2010. Not likely since patriots have a nifty Stuxnet tool for jamming the Iranian Bushehr nuclear facility. So TomV got 1/3 correct, and the Jackass 3/3 correct. He owes me a shiny pre-1964 dime, my booty.

My admiration over TomV's Apple stock and option call continues to this day, a gain worth over $1 million in a brilliant investment. He has some other past big profitable trades that have sustained his wealth and comfortable retirement. The housing market demonstrates the systemic failure with staggering momentum in my view. The Deflationists incorrectly believe housing and a weak USEconomy will send all commodity prices down in unison, a short-sighted thoughtless call. Their position is lunatic since they do not notice its steady error. Housing will remain a chief factor for justifying more Quantitative Easing and more USGovt stimulus. The effect to force a declining USDollar exchange rate will continue to lift all costs. The Deflationist Knuckleheads (DK) are experts at focusing on the wrong things, and then making the wrong conclusion with a poor knowledge base of most important factors. So crude oil will go past $120 on the West Texas product, not back to $80 as TomV expects. It looks like oil could fall close to $90 though, as it views the gap from 90 to 95. The DK were talking three weeks ago about crude oil going down to 80. It returned over 100, precisely as the Jackass forecasted in rebuttal two weeks ago, and will climb again. The main error the DK nitwits make is to expect low demand to result in lower prices. No way!! Low demand will accompany inability to handle higher costs and deeper insolvency. Thus the result will be systemic breakdown during the hyper-inflation price process. Prices will not come down across the board in order to enable people to afford them. Rather, the entire cost structure will rise because the USDollar is being debased badly. The DK crowd seems totally blind to the monetary effect on the rising cost structure.

This week, yet another vacant clueless message came from TomV. After the miniscule drop in the gold price, despite crude oil remaining within spitting distance of the $100 mark, he continues his display of mediocrity. He said, "Gold is saying fear of deflation, not inflation." There is no end to Deflationist blindness nor lack of intellectual potency. Give them credit for consistency and persistence, even if wrong all along the way. My response, having lost patience, followed, "What another nitwit comment. Gold is taking the head fake of no continued QE, but not coming down much at all. Geez, a real crater from 1570 to 1530, a mere pittance. Gold will rise hard and fast when QE reappears in whatever form, possibly even Global QE. Please define deflation in view of $3 trillion in USFed monetary expansion. You seem a tiresome empty gong. The part you fail to comprehend is that Gold does not move hand in hand with home prices. Assets bound by debt instruments are cratering, as in DEFLATION. Assets not encumbered by debt and counter-party risk are rising, as in INFLATION. Your clan never sees both forces, and certainly not the harmful effect on commodity prices from the weak USDollar. Your commentary for the last two years is truly lacking in depth. Perhaps it is because you take a view from the third floor of the building. At higher floors more can be seen, like monetary effects."

A final volley occurred a week ago, as the full effect of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil release was felt. The comment from TomV was again shallow and evidence of learning little or nothing from the series of exchanges. He wrote, "As you saw, when the big boys whiffed a scent of deflation, your Gold price dropped. Then when they thought it was over, up it went. Now they are sniffing more deflation, the high as I have said should be 1550 and you will settle in around 1250." Try not to laugh, but the Jackass cannot tolerate more drivel and spittle on my desk. My response was impatient and dismissive, a bit harsh. It came as "The Boyz got very scared with the USGovt debt debate going nowhere, combined with the Greek and now Italian sovereign bond crackup. When the Boyz got scared, they just sold naked a few $billion worth of gold. So Gold shot back up today, Silver too, on what, no more deflation fears? Such a pathetic moronic viewpoint you put forth. The Japanese Yen shot over 126 today, my alarm level being 125. The global sovereign debt crisis is turning viral. The Deflation Knuckleheads continue to talk about deflation. They cannot define it! They cannot spot the multi-$trillion in monetary inflation. They are some of the biggest idiots I have ever encountered in my professional life. No need for any further communication. Stick with golf, as your consistent straight 280-yard drive is enviable."

CAPITAL DESTRUCTION

Hyper monetary inflation destroys capital, but low rates encourage asset speculation that leads to asset bubbles. Their inevitable busts lead to tremendous loss of additional capital in a swirl of wreckage and ruin. Hyper monetary inflation destroys capital, and only indirectly destroys liquidity over time during the pathogenesis. It produces liquidity from printed money, to be sure. But that effect is in the financial market. The tangible economic effect is the death of capital from the rising cost structure, and businesses shut down. Plant machinery and business equipment go out of service. They are sold off or simply rot like the steel mills. Profits and discretionary spending are harshly squeezed. The USFed monetary policy is destroying capital from ruined businesses and foreclosed households. The result is lost investment capital going into a death process, otherwise known as business failures and capital liquidation. The business owners invest less in everything downstream because they struggle to survive. The same is true for households, who over time have much less in discretionary spending. Their capital is tied up in the homes, which all too often have gone into foreclosure. The bank puts them in mothballs on the balance sheet or sells in liquidation similarly. The result often is an empty home. The consumers are crippled. But the hyper monetary inflation will continue with QE, if not GLOBAL QE, because they must prevent USTreasury defaults. Doing so will create more cost inflation, which must be distinguished from price inflation. The latter is more benign, since rising wages help the process. The import trade from Asia will bring the price inflation to the USEconomy. Remember the bankers and beholden politicos desperately want to avoid secondary inflation effects, namely higher wages. Therefore their desired outcome is systemic collapse, since the cities and communities will not be able to afford the higher costs.

The liquidity shock is horrendous within the USEconomy, bad for businesses, households, and the stock market. That is a big reason why the USFed produces its Quantitative Easing, to buy USTreasurys and to provide grandiose hidden support for the stock market. But no support comes for households, stuck in foreclosure, stuck with inadequate wage increases, stuck with unemployment checks. The USGovt homeowner aid programs have been a parade of charades. The place to be during the ruinous process, the grotesque deterioration, and massive liquidation phase is MONEY, as in GOLD & SILVER. The collapse of the monetary system is well along, as sovereign debt turns into toxic paper just like mortgages did. People and institutions are fleeing formerly sacred safe haven government bonds. Witness the pathogenesis process go up the ladder and attack all forms of paper wealth. Fiat funds will chase true money and struggle if not flail until it finds true money. All paper asset investors will find Gold & Silver eventually, some very late. The last round of prominent buyers will be buyers as we sell and enter retirement. The final huge challenge is to find the right yield producing investment to park all that cash from selling in a few years. Right now maybe Brazil bond or Iceland bonds, even Chinese bonds, just a guess without extensive research. That research will come in 2015.

KEY DEVELOPMENT FACTORS

The July Gold & Currency Report is be to posted next Sunday night, as part of the Hat Trick Letter. Last Sunday the July Global Money War Report was posted to the Golden Jackass website. It featured the looming USGovt debt default, the USTreasury deep distress, the USDollar currency reserve cracks, China buying the world (like Southern Europe and the Persian Gulf), and the European contagion spreading to Italy. Here is a list of topics developed in the Gold & Currency Report due this weekend. The analysis has become interwoven with crisis events that have turned into the norm. The global money war is also called the competing currency war, but it is much bigger since a revolt is underway to survive the financial crisis. That requires breaking up the Euro Monetary Union and replacing the USDollar as the currency reserve. The list below of important topics analyzed in the Member only report is mind boggling in importance, as nothing has been fixed since the collapse of the US banking system in September 2008. The crisis has turned worse, gone viral, and mushroomed globally.

• Core Euro currency must remain after shedding the gangrene in the South, as the Latin Euro is jettisoned. The only viable solution is one cited by the Jackass a year ago. The PIGS nations are stuck until they exit the European Monetary Union and discard usage of the common Euro currency. The core nations will build around the German center. The Latin nations will revert to their old currencies, devalue by at least 30%, and recapitalize their banks. The impact on big European banks will be staggering, but more constructive than the series of bankaid bandaids. Many big banks will fail.
  

• Sovereign debt risk has extended to London banks, evident in Credit Default Swap activity. Watch Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Barclays, which all have some exposure to the toxic Southern European sovereign debt. It is amazing how many analysts expect the Euro currency to fall badly, wrong!! What has fallen in the sovereign bonds, which effectively differentiate the various increasingly toxic floating bonds. The Euro trades on interest rate factors.
  

• Euro Central Bank in a race with the USFed to be the biggest bagholder of toxic bonds. The buyers of last resort actually purchased a considerable amount of toxic swill paper that will not see recovery in their value. The EU ruin of PIGS debt and the US housing market terminal slide guarantee major losses over $1 trillion for each central bank.
  

• GATA Gold Rush 21 to convene in London this August. It will feature whistle blower Andrew Maguire who still has much to say about the gradual disintegration of the COMEX and LBMA metals exchanges. The last such meeting took place in the remote Canadian Northwest at Dawson Creek in August 2005, with huge impact. Expect more fireworks this August in the conference wake, like a greater awakening.
  

• Japanese Yen over 126 and climbing. Large financial firms have amplified their USTBond sales in order to raise reconstruction funds and meet insurance damage claims. The move over 125 flashes a surefire signal that GLOBAL QE comes, as major central banks will coordinate efforts to soak up large tranches of USTBonds during a time when debt monetization tarnishes their image.
  

• Pan Asian Gold Exchange launch will crush the illicit COMEX shorts. The Chinese gold futures contracts will offer competition by adding another price fix to compete with London and New York price discovery. The dominance by Anglos will change markedly. Imagine the impact of 320 million China Ag Bank clients hooked in.
  

• China's asset managers have been approved to raise $70 billion for gold purchases. The nation moves slowly toward investment overseas. Many firms have won approval, more lined up, as significant funds have entered their tills for investment in precious metals.
  

• Pathetic ploy to release strategic oil reserves has lost its impact. The West Texas crude oil price is back toward the $100 per barrel mark. The Brent spread is back to $20. What a ridiculous transparent ploy to support the USEconomy. But the release by the USGovt alone was less than two days worth of demand. The ineffective policy is matched by ineffective actions.
  

• Foreign central banks were net USTBond sellers in May, as they increased gold holdings. The trend is clear and growing. The main buyers of USTreasurys are Johannes Gutenberg and his many elves at the Printing Pre$$ sequested in the USDept Treasury basements. Somehow debt monetization in the shadows of hyper monetary inflation tends to discourage bond investors for investment of their hard earned foreign reserves.
  

• JPMorgan sidesteps rules to become COMEX vault operator, as inventory levels are in doubt. Rules do not apply to the syndicate dons. Rumors fly that COMEX silver inventory might be about 1/3 of advertised levels. Meanwhile, the SLV exchange traded fund managed by JPMorgan is believed to be illicitly satisfying COMEX short positions. Rumors fly that SLV inventory might be about 1/3 of advertised levels. At least there is symmetry amidst the smoke.
  

• US GDP on a year/year basis stands at minus 8% recession, with proper inflation adjustment used. The best CPI index is produced by John Williams at the Shadow Govt Statistics offices. They measure the true CPI at between 9% and 10% annually. Again, as forecasted in December and January, most supposed increase in USEconomic activity is actually inflation mislabeled as growth.
  

• Ben Davies, John Embry, Jim Sinclair, John Hathaway, and James Turk share their aggressive price forecasts for Gold & Silver. They have been amazingly accurate so far during this historic bull market. Contrast their correct insightful views with the hapless compromised Nouriel Roubini, who said in December 2009 that deflation forces would keep the gold price down and that gold bulls had it all wrong expecting a global financial crisis. The gold price was $1125 back then. Nouriel needs a new job!
  

• Sprott Physical Silver Trust sourced and bought $340 million in silver, adding to its excellent legitimate fund. The placement complements the $360 million sourced and bought by the Central Exchange Fund (roughly half gold, half silver). The pressure is on in a major way in the physical market. The paper driven game is being unmasked.
  

SILVER TARGET OVER $100

A powerful dynamic has been at work for a few years. A Silver deficit remains a boon to investors but a plague to central bankers. The USGovt silver stockpile was depleted in 2005. Gold will continue to fight the political battles in the open fields. But Silver will run through the broken battle lines on a white horse to take triple the price gains. The march toward $100 Silver sounded like lunatic forecasts two years ago, but are more realistic with each passing month nowadays. Silver is growing in investment demand, the object of purchase by central banks as a reserve asset in allocations. Some unique traits are known to silver, which is often mined as a byproduct. When demand for industrial usage of base metals like zinc, lead, tin, and others goes into decline, the actual mined output of silver enters a decline even though investment demand grows radically from systemic monetary risk. So as the global monetary system crumbles, and economies slow from cost shock, the silver supply struggles to keep pace at a time when investment demand skyrockets. The deficit in silver, the amount by which demand exceeds supply, has been chronic for over a decade. It is a wonder that analysts do not recognize this basic fact, but many are paid to be wrong with precious metals, in support of the Great Paper Chase. The silver price is heading over the $100 level in the next couple years. The price rise will continue in a powerful way. The naysayers are consistently being proved wrong and trampled by the multitudes. Thanks to the Casey gang for a great chart. The next few months will bring great entertainment on stage, as the many misguided analysts calling an end to the Gold & Silver bull market in May will be forced to explain why the gold price is moving on the $1700 level and the silver price is moving on the $60 level. The autumn months will be the timeframe.

Jim Willie CB

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