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The
spin/delusion/lie (take your pick):
"US Not in 'Jobless
Recovery': White House's Goolsbee" (CNBC)
The United
States is not in a jobless recovery, and the private sector is creating jobs
in a broad-based way that augurs well for a sustained recovery, White House
economic advisor Austan Goolsbee
said on Wednesday.
While drags on
the economy continue, including higher fuel prices, a housing sector "in
the dumps" and state and local government spending cuts, positive signs
on the U.S. economy are beginning to outweigh negative ones, Goolsbee said in a speech in Chicago.
The reality:
"Chart
of the Day: Has Hiring Really Recovered?" (The
Atlantic)
You've probably
read recently that businesses have begun hiring again. That isn't quite
right: firms had been hiring throughout the recession. Unfortunately, their
firings outnumbered their hires so unemployment climbed. Their hiring did
slow down, however, a lot. In 2006, over 5 million workers were hired per
month, on average. In 2009, that number shrunk to average less than 3.5
million. But the labor market recovery began in 2010. How does the picture
look now?
Here's the
chart for private sector hiring updated through March, based on a report
released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
As you can see,
hiring isn't exactly flourishing just yet. In March, new hires rose to 3.78
million. That happens to be the most since December 2008, but this isn't
saying much. As mentioned, in 2006, when the economy was humming, 5 million
hires per month was normal. And that wasn't a recovery, just normal business.
In a recovery, you would expect hiring to be even more aggressive than usual.
How weak is
hiring following the latest recession? Let's compare it to the one in
2002/2003. You can see hiring for that period above as well. At no point did
it fall below 4 million, and it quickly began to rise back to levels above
4.5 million when unemployment peaked at 6.3% in mid-2003. This time around,
unemployment peaked in late-2009, but hiring has barely ticked up since.
Instead of
"blessing us" with his insights on the economy, perhaps it would be
better for all concerned if Mr. Goolsbee stuck to standup
comedy...?
Michael J. Panzner
Editor, Financialarmageddon.com
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