Tasman Metals (TASXF), General Moly (GMO) and Uranium

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Published : May 10th, 2011
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

 

 

 

 

Good Morning Readers.

 

Before I begin I just want to quickly update my readers on Tasman Metals (TASXF). As you are aware, yesterday I devoted my blog to Tasman Metals and even created a YouTube videohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zQofI9g0w0devoted to this stock. Well the stock spiked 14.6% and closed at $5.43. Take a look at the chart and Google Tasman Metals because I consider this stock a buy under $6.00 and if this stock acts out as predicted it won’t last long below $6.00. I also wanted to alert my readers that tomorrow at 9AM in Eureka Nevada will be a big day. The Bureau of Land Management will hold a hearing on the water permits for General Moly that I wrote about on Wednesday May 4th. Please review the archives for an in depth analysis of this company that I consider a sure fire winner. I also posted a video of this company on YouTube. Please take a look by visiting this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWCeWBCAk0E devoted to GMO.

 

          Today I wanted to devote this post to uranium stocks that are yesterday’s news and to the media, who believe they are no longer worthy of even mentioning. Before the tragedy at Fukishma uranium stocks were on a tear and had tripled in value since last October. The media pays no heed to the fact that they stopped the nuclear renaissance dead in its tracks. That was yesterday’s news. What havoc can we wreak today to sell air time and protect our “Phony Baloney” jobs? It’s times like these when we need to focus and remember that just because it was reported in the media does not make it so. In fact it usually works the other way. We should all realize that very little has changed in our uranium stocks, other than stock prices being taken out to the woodshed and beat to a pulp thanks to the ubiquitous media whose job seems to be to create frenzy and wreak havoc  before moving on to their next victim. The fact is that no other country, other than Germany whose leadership is in flux and is quite weak, has not abandoned nuclear energy.

 

          If you recall my post from Thursday May 5th I spoke of Bill Gates speaking at the TED conference in Long Beach California. Mr. Gates was asked, if he had one wish for the future what would it be? Surprisingly he answered that he would wish for “energy miracles.” He went on to talk about a company (which sadly for my readers is not a public company) called Terra Power. He spoke passionately and frankly about the use of nuclear energy to become energy independent, not only in this country but in the world. I found it remarkable that Mr. “Green” techno-geek was completely bullish on nuclear energy. Mr. Gates went on to say that people killed per kilowatt produced is much safer in nuclear energy because while an accident using nuclear energy is a catastrophic event, the burning of fossil fuels kills more people but at a slower rate which is more preferable to politicians.

 

           We must remember that nuclear energy is still in its infancy. Nuclear energy is forty years old and most of the reactors that are on line are forty years old. Since the emergence of nuclear production the technology used to create nuclear energy has made quantum leaps. We have developed newer and safer reactors. Lessons have been learned, technological advances have been made and precautionary measures against cataclysmic events are being implemented. I have no doubt that in the next 10 years we will see reactors come on line all over the world as nuclear energy is a critical element to the development of emerging economies that require a great deal of energy.

 

          Yesterday, in the New York Times, Japan’s Prime Minister was quoted as saying that “Japan is not reconsidering its dependence on nuclear power.” The article reaffirmed Japan’s nuclear energy use.

 

          China, Korea, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates are proceeding with their nuclear plans. Moreover, President Obama declared his position to go ahead with nuclear construction. With the advent of new, safer technology in reactors we will produce the needed energy for the world.

 

Mistakes were made and lessons were learned but with the advent of newer and safer reactors the world will quickly reconsider the perils of nuclear energy and replace the old antiquated reactors with the newer safer reactors.

 

          The media has little ammunition left to fire at the nuclear sector. They are running out of stories to report whose sole purpose is to sell toaster ovens, bath products and air time. We must never forget that uranium stocks are like money buried in the ground. If not used today it will always be there for potential use tomorrow.

 

          It takes time, effort and money to build uranium mines and go through the permitting process. Our uranium mines are irreplaceable. Our uranium stock selections will survive and grow as we are in the midst of a turnaround process right now. It may be slow in coming but with patience and fortitude, investment in our uranium stocks will be amply rewarded.

 

          Cameco (CCJ) is the “Apple” of uranium stocks and is the largest publicly traded North American uranium company. This company is the leading producer of pure uranium. See chart below.

 

 

Before the Fukishma accident this stock was trading in the $45.00 range. Yesterday it closed at $28.99.

 

          According to a report from Indie Research one catalyst giving a boost to the downtrodden uranium sector today is the Uranium Stocks Index is up 3.1%.The Index has plunged more than 40% since the Fukishma accident which led to a massive sell-off in uranium stocks. Despite reporting first-quarter results that missed analysts' estimates, Canada-based Cameco said it still expects to produce 21.9 million pounds of uranium this year and the company expects to sell 31-33 million pounds of the materials. Cameco added that it expects sales to be heavily weighted toward the second half of the year and that it has a strong outlook for uranium in the future and is sticking with a plan to boost annual production to 40 million pounds by 2018.

 

          Positive comments from Bill Gates and Warren Buffet also appear to be helping calm fears about uranium stocks. Warren Buffett, speaking at shareholder meeting of Berkshire Hathaway was reported to have said that "nuclear power is important for the world."

 

I am long Cameco (CCJ) which is up 4% from my entry point, Uranium Energy (URG) which is up 3% and Dennison Mines (DNN) which is up 2%. I also am watching Uranerz Energy (URZ) in which I have no position but that stock is also up 2%.

 

          If you believe, as I do, that until the next Mark Zuckerberg comes along that discovers some way to produce tremendous amounts of energy with no environmental impact in a way that we can’t even begin to imagine, then nuclear power is not going away. Until that “dream” day comes, however, we need to continue our efforts to make the production of nuclear power safer. We need to move to take the old reactors off line and replace them with the new technologies and continue to refine them. I believe that the production of nuclear energy is a “work in progress.” We most certainly have come a long way towards that goal in the last forty years and I can only imagine how much safer the new reactors will be in 10 or 20 or 30 years from now. If you believe as Bill Gates does and Warren Buffet does and as I do that the production of nuclear energy is important for the world to continue to prosper, I suggest that you take a look at the four companies I have just mentioned, study them and if you feel comfortable with the new technology in nuclear reactors, consider opening a position in uranium stocks. 

 

Thanks for visiting and Stay Tuned!

 

 

 

 

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George Maniere has an MBA in Finance and 38+ years of market experience, and has learned by experience that hubris equals failure and that the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. Please post all comments and questions, and feel free to email him at maniereg@gmail.com. He will respond.
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