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It always takes some bad gold day to get the ultra gold bulls to wake up from their slumber. This one
is getting fun to watch. Notice how the ultra-bulls attack the messengers and
not the message? You will see that in the following piece. But first,
let’s get to the wager…
Peter Grandich of The Grandich Letter has put it out there … He is so
convinced that gold will see $2,000 before it sees $1,000 on the Comex again that he is willing to put up $1 million
dollars. And to quote Grandich,
the wager is being offered up to “The Three Stooges” (how mature)
being Dennis Gartman, Kitco’s
John Nadler and Jeff Christian. Let’s look at
Grandich’s offer:
In almost three
decades in and around Wall Street, I’ve never seen such widespread
distaste and outright hatred of an investment that for almost a decade has
greatly outperformed just about every other investment vehicle: gold. I will
discuss why I believe this is the case in a moment, but I want to first
respond to what I can only describe as one of the “Three Stooges of
Gold Forecasting’s” latest forecasts that has once again caused
near hysteria among gold players and the media that follows it.
Dennis Gartman, a true master of self-promotion but who’s
actual track record (if anyone in the media actually delved into it I believe
they would see for themselves) better suits him for the lead role in
“The Boy Who Cried Wolf,” has once again grabbed headlines with
yet another the-gold-bull-market-is-over assertion.
Mr. Gartman is one of three people who many in the media
continue to quote despite a nearly decade-long poor overall track record on
gold. He, Jeff Christian and Jon Nadler have demonstrated to me (and I
suspect many others) that a broken clock’s percentage of telling the
correct time in any given day is about the same as their actual accurate
forecasts for gold in the last decade.
Yours truly has called
this the “mother” of all gold bull markets and, by making the following
offer to the Three Stooges of gold forecasting, I would like to offer up a
million reasons why:
I
will wager any one of them (or a combination of all three) one million
dollars U.S. that gold will hit $2000 before it hits $1,000 on the COMEX. I
have arranged for the law firm of Lomurro, Davison,
Eastman & Munoz of Freehold, New Jersey to hold the funds in trust. For
once, let one or all of the most arrogant and often wrong gold forecasters
truly put their money where their mouth is when it comes to gold forecasting.
This offer shall be good until midnight, December 31, 2011 (I will donate my
winnings to charities).
With regard to gold
and the fact that I was supposed to be on vacation until January 3rd,
I will be short and sweet: the great “Bull Run” won’t end
until the price of gold has at least a “2” in the front
($2,000+).
In all fairness … gold came pretty close to
hitting $2,000 an ounce didn’t it? Is he really this cocky that he is
convinced it must see $2,000 or isn’t $1920 enough?
This illustrates my point about the ultra gold
bulls. Is it really responsible to call those that disagree with you a
“stooge” publicly? Does this sort of language expect to garner
anyone any more respect? This is a perfect example of why the ultra bulls
often get laughed at and lose respect … because there is no convincing
them that they are wrong or that for a moment, they may be incorrect in their
way of thinking. That might be the subject for another day but the reality
is, it is exactly this kind of talk that gets investors into trouble. By
continuing to follow the herd, despite
what the tape is telling you, it is not inconceivable that there
those out there who are still holding on to $45.00 silver and $2,000 gold
nuggets.
Back to the topic … Grandich has offered a wager of $1 million
dollars that gold will see a settlement price on the Comex
of $2,000 an ounce before it ever sees $1,000 again.
Consider this when trying to handicap this wager
… Gold’s high this year was $1,916.20. Gold’s 52 week low
is $1,321.10. It was $800.00 at the start of 2009. So after being up 125%
since the start of it’s
2009 run, it has now corrected almost 20%. We are almost at the in-between
point for this bet. This kind of stuff makes it more fun to watch the price
of gold. One thing is for certain though, the name calling wreaks
of immaturity. You know, $1,000 gold still means a gain of over 20% from the
2009 low and represents an ever bigger gain if we go further back. This one
is interesting. I’m convinced gold will encounter more selling pressure
but enough to see it at $1,000? Given the damage inflicted will it have the
legs to rally back to $2,000? This one is one that I would prefer to watch
from the sidelines.
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