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The Reason for Gold
Over the long term, value, wealth, and money perception shifts from hard assets to paper assets and from Public to Private. There’s hard cash (metal) and cold cash (paper). Historically, paper has always failed. Odds favor the shift back to hard assets as value and wealth will occur due to a coming debt default and currency crisis.
There is only one event that can explain where we are today.
The most important event of the 20th century was taking the reserve currency off the gold standard. Odds favor the most important event of the 21st century will be putting it back on.
 
Monthly Closing Observations;
Let’s look at some monthly charts
GOLD
I’ll start with the last sentence from the last report to our subscribers and let that lead into the discussion.
“Odds are gold remains in a trade range for the moment of 1304-1366”.
Since that last update, the high has been 1362 and the low has been 1313. Our main premise for that statement was that odds favored an inside month in February (lower than Jan’s high but higher than Jan’s low) and February did end up being an inside month.
How important is an inside bar on a chart?
Often enough to pay attention to it because important TRENDS often take place after an inside bar.
An inside month can often (but not always) be a warning that a trend change is about to develop. But beware as fakeout's in all markets can and at times do take place. Here is an example using a gold daily chart in 2015 showing a fake out.
Notice that price first broke above the bar but then quickly reversed and once it took out the low on the INSIDE bar, a meaningful TREND ensued. In this example its a downtrend, but it often works the same way when an uptrend is selected.
Thus as we hit March, the opposite could also take place where gold would take out the JANUARY LOW at 1304 and then reverse higher.
Let’s look at the yearly gold chart.
Isn’t it interesting that gold had a DOUBLE INSIDE YEAR before the 21st century gold bull market began?
Isn’t it interesting that gold had an inside year in 2012 and a 5 year bear market has taken place?
Isn’t it interesting that gold had an inside year in 2017?
Summary
The bottom line is we should be on guard for favoring gold to EXIT (one way or another) the current 1304-1366 price range and form a more meaningful trend thereafter. For the bulls, it’s just one more factor on how important it is for gold to get above the 1366-1388 price range. For bears (and bulls), watch 1290. If gold closes below there, it should return towards 1200-1250 area.
FOR THE UPSIDE to be selected, the trend line change on the chart has to be taken out for odds to favor the upside. And that means Gold needs to take out 1366-1388. It’s the most important number in gold right now.
Until 1366-1388 is taken out, let’s remain very cautious here and not rule out any more downside just yet. Let’s also keep the inside year scenario on our radar.
A monthly close above 1366-1388 favors that the move from the inside year is HIGHER. That's the price point to remember.
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