Last week I wrote about how Israel's newfound natural gas wealth is catalyzing a shift in
Middle-Eastern relations. It was a topic that generated much discussion
in our office – we knew that the Mediterranean Sea resource is highly
significant for the Jewish state, which has long struggled with energy
insecurity, but the deeper we delved into the issue the more we realized that
Israel's new resource is already having wide global implications. In
particular, we were very intrigued to realize just how cozy Russia and Israel
are becoming – this being the same Russia that usually supports Iran
and Syria, Israel's sworn enemies.
The article generated a fair bit of feedback from our
readers as well, including several good questions. In answering the questions
and in continuing to discuss the issues among ourselves, we placed Russia's
advances on Israel as but one part of a shifting global web, wherein old
allegiances are being dropped in favor of new friends with benefits. Those
benefits are energy resources, and the race to control them is changing the
way the world turns.
Dozens of countries are slowly altering their
international allegiances because of energy considerations. Here I will shine
a light on a few of the more significant transitions and how they might
impact US and EU energy security.
Russia's
Strategic Steps Toward Israel
I discussed this at some length last week, so rather
than repeat myself I will just summarize the situation in order to address
some questions that arose following that Dispatch. The gist of it is
this: The Middle East has long been informally divided into two camps, with
US allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar making up the camp that can
get along with Israel, while Iran and Syria lead the group that cannot
befriend the Jewish state. In a holdover from the Cold War, Russia has long
backed the anti-Israel group, providing arms to Syria and support to the
increasingly isolated Islamic Republic.
Now Israel, long the oil- and gas-poor brother in the
squabbling Middle-Eastern family, has delineated trillions of cubic feet of
offshore natural gas. It is hard to overstate the significance of this
discovery. Instead of having to rely on a strained peace with Egypt for its
natural gas, Israel now has far more natural gas than it can use – the
country will be self-sufficient in terms of gas to generate electricity and
will be able to fill its coffers with export revenues.
Israel's transition from a nation constantly in need of
resources to one that could well play a major role in the global gas trade is
earning it new respect. Greece and Cyprus are discussing paths for potential
pipelines to Europe. Turkish leaders are likely kicking themselves for having
destroyed what was a close friendship with Israel in recent years; now Turkey
will have to sit on the sidelines and watch as Israel, Greece, and Cyprus
work together to develop these gas riches. Egypt's Islamists, finally in
power after decades of having to abide their nation's peace accord with
Israel, have been stripped of the opportunity to cut off Israel's gas supplies
– the Jewish state doesn't need Egyptian gas anymore. Syria and
Lebanon, among others, are considering how to stake their claims on the gas
bounty, which sits in waters laced with international boundaries.
And then there's Russia. Vladimir Putin's third
official international trip after retaking the Russian presidency in May was
to Israel. The two nations now share $3 billion in annual trade and
considerable immigration. Arching over all those ties is the fact that, in
the wake of the Arab Spring, Russia and Israel share an interest in
preventing the rising tide of radical Islam.
The Russia just described sure doesn't sound like a
very good friend to Iran, does it? But why the shift – is Russia that
concerned about radical Islam? No, Putin has never cared much about religion;
his decisions are always far more strategic than that. The reason is simple:
Israeli gas.
That brings us to the most common question we were
asked following last week's energy Dispatch: Why does Russia, a
natural gas giant in its own right, want Israeli gas? To our questioners, you
are absolutely right: Russia does not need any more gas for itself. Russia is
home to one-quarter of the world's known natural gas resources,
roughly 1,600 trillion cubic feet (TCF) according to the EIA. And that
doesn't count potential reserves of unconventional gas. We think that all
told, Russia may control as much as one-third of the world's natural gas.
Russia has gas. What Putin desperately wants is to
maintain his country's stranglehold over European natural gas supplies.
Putin loves using control over resources to enhance
Russia's power, and natural gas is a key part of his scheme – we
dedicated an entire issue of the Casey Energy Report to this topic recently. It was
only a few years ago that Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe for a few
days in the middle of winter in order to punish Ukraine for siphoning fuel
from Russian lines. Europe relies on Russia for 34% of its natural gas; Putin
wants to increase that reliance. To that end, he has spent years building new
pipelines to Europe that avoid transiting
troublesome countries (i.e., Ukraine). As if controlling Europe weren't
enough, Putin is also developing Russia's ability to sell gas to Asia by
jumping into the liquefied natural gas (LNG) scene with new facilities in the
Far East. And he's several steps ahead of the United States in this LNG game.
How does Israel factor in? Israeli gas could join the
world market in two ways: through a pipeline to Europe running under the
Mediterranean Sea (with a stopover in Cyprus); and/or as LNG, which would be
sold to Europe and beyond. Both would turn the Jewish state into an
unexpected competitor in Putin's plan to continue controlling European
natural gas supplies. Since he can't prevent Israeli gas from flowing, Putin
is trying to control where it flows and siphon off some of the profits.
That control is so important, it seems that Putin is
considering coming out as a full-fledged friend of Israel. Such a move would
almost certainly sever those long-time ties between Russia and Iran, but when
the currency in question is energy then alliances formed over decades can
change overnight. If Russia does take that strategic step away from Iran and
toward Israel, it will rock the ever-delicate Sunni-Shiite balance in the
Middle East… to what end is anyone's guess. As for whether Israel will
reciprocate Russia's advances: never forget that Israel is a pragmatist
nation, its very survival dependent on making
strategic decisions. We would not be surprised to see the Jewish state
playing both sides of the ex-Cold War game, if that's what makes sense for
them.
Africa's New
Best Friend
Late last week the news broke that China will lend $20
billion to African governments over the next three years. The funds will be
directed at infrastructure and agriculture projects, but to anyone who views
the world with an eye out for strategic resource relationships, the growing
friendship between China and Africa is all about energy and minerals.
Specifically, China is cultivating the relationship
very carefully in order to cement its role as Africa's best friend and top
ally. Caring for Africa's needs puts China in a perfect place to negotiate
resource deals with countries across the African continent – after all,
aren't sharing and caring the first rules of friendship?
This isn't a new tactic – Chinese involvement in
Africa has increased dramatically over the past decade. Today annual trade
between the African continent and the People's Republic is worth more than
$166 billion, a threefold increase since 2006. What is new in the
relationship is China's new breadth and depth of caring. Until recently, most
Chinese aid to Africa went to projects that were clearly designed to
primarily benefit China's extractive industries on the continent, not
Africa's people. To boot, Chinese laborers were brought to work on the
projects, reducing the number of jobs available for Africans. The result:
China was accused – by Africans and by international observers alike
– of being dastardly self-serving in its African endeavors.
This has become particularly problematic in Angola,
which has received more Chinese money than any other African nation. Angola
is rich in oil, diamonds, gold, and copper, but a devastating 27-year civil
war destroyed most of the country's infrastructure. China has been helping
Angola rebuild by providing infrastructure-related loans in exchange for oil;
bilateral trade between the countries topped $25 billion in 2010. But the
projects, such as rebuilding the 840-mile Benguela
Railway, are all designed to make it faster and easier for China to access
Angola's resource wealth, and Chinese laborers are now a common sight in
Angola. With jobs and resources ending up in Chinese hands, Angolans in
recent years have started questioning whether China has their interests in
mind at all.
Lopsided relationships like this are nothing new for
Africa. From colonialism to aid dependency, Africa has been in a lopsided
relationship with Europe for decades. However, it seems the continent has
learned from the past and now wants to try to craft a deeper relationship
with China... one that would hopefully result in a more sustainable
partnership.
"Africa's past economic experience with Europe
dictates a need to be cautious when entering into partnerships with other
economies," said South African President Jacob Zuma
at the recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing. He continued to
say that China has demonstrated its commitment to Africa with investment and
development aid and that Africans are generally pleased that they are treated
as "equals" in the relationship. However, he cautioned that the
trade balance "… is unsustainable in the long term."
It was seemingly in response to that worry that Chinese
President Hu Jintao promised $20 billion in loans aimed at projects
specifically not related to mining or oil. Instead, the money is earmarked
for agriculture, manufacturing, education, safe drinking water, protected
lands, and the development of small businesses.
Has the Chinese leadership suddenly taken to caring for
the health, welfare, and economic prospects for the people of Africa? It
might be nice to think so, but the truth is much more strategic: China
realized that it needs to improve its standing in the hearts and minds of
Africans if it wants to continue securing access to African oil, gas, and
minerals. And it did so with a bang – the $20 billion pledged for the
next three years is twice what China pledged for the last three-year period.
With a show of renewed friendship and caring, China
will now go about seeking new resource deals to add to the plethora of
extractive deals it has signed with African countries in recent years. In
Nigeria, China is spending $23 billion to build three oil refineries and a
fuel complex; the two countries are also building one of Africa's largest
free-trade zones near Lagos, a $5-billion, 16,000-hectare project. In Sudan,
where Darfur-related sanctions bar American companies from investing, China
has invested billions in oil ventures and buys 90% of the country's oil
exports. A billion dollars in bilateral trade between China and Mauritania
revolve around oil; the magnitude of China's investment in the country has
carried Sino-Mauritanian relations through two military coups in the last
decade. In Botswana the expansion of the Morupule
coal-fired power station is being funded through an $825-million Chinese
loan, but that is only one of 28 infrastructure projects that China is
backing in the country.
China has money, Africa has resources, and both have
tainted views of many other global powers. It's a match made in heaven.
Asia Stakes a
Claim on Canada
They came only a month apart: two multibillion-dollar
offers from Asian energy giants to buy up Canadian oil and gas companies. The
first was in late June, when Malaysian state energy company Petronas offered $5.5 billion in cash for Canadian
natural gas producer Progress Energy Resources. The offer represented a 77%
premium over Progress' closing price the day before the deal was announced
and is the biggest deal to date for Petronas. Why
did the Malaysian firm play such a huge hand? Because Progress has 1.9
trillion cubic feet of proved and probable gas reserves in British Columbia's
Montney shale region, a massive resource that Petronas hopes to export to Asia asLNG.
News of the second deal broke just yesterday; the
dollar size of the deal sent it reeling across business headlines around the
world. China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) is buying Canadian oil and
gas producer Nexen (T.NXY) for $15 billion in cash.
It is the largest investment China has ever made into Canada – its
previous Canadian investments total $23 billion – and the offer
represents a 66% premium to Nexen's 20-day
volume-weighted average share price.
CNOOC wants Nexen for its
diverse project portfolio – the company has operations in Colombia,
Yemen, the North Sea, and the United States – but it is the company's
Canadian projects that hold the vast reserves that China seeks. Nexen is only a mid-sized player in the Canadian oil
sands, but it has 900 million barrels in proven oil reserves plus another 5.6
billion barrels of less-certain contingent resources. In addition, Nexen is on the cusp of producing from its significant
shale gas reserves in BC. Between those two forays – oil sands and
shale gas – Nexen has major exposure to two
of the world's most rapidly growing, major energy sources.
New, fast-growing supplies are exactly what Asian
energy giants need. In the race to secure oil and gas resources for the
future, importers have to look beyond historic suppliers to new frontiers.
Big oil reserves in historic producing countries are generally either state-owned
and therefore closed to investment – examples include Saudi Arabia,
Iran, Mexico, and Venezuela – or have already been staked out and
carved up among domestic and international partners who aren't likely to give
up an inch of their claim.
That means nations looking to buy up international oil
and gas reserves have to look at newer regions – the oil sands, the
Arctic, the shale fields of North America, the sub-salt oil riches off
Brazil's coast, and the like. The risks and costs may be higher, but at least
these regions still offer the opportunity to stake a claim on a massive
resource. When it comes to the oil sands and the shale fields of British
Columbia and Alberta, the fact that these massive resources are in western
Canada – pretty darn close to the Pacific Ocean – makes the
opportunity almost picture-perfect.
That is precisely why Asian energy giants are moving on
Canadian oil and gas companies... though to be fair, they were invited to do
so. Led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the Canadian government has been
actively courting Asian investment for its energy riches; these two
multibillion-dollar deals are the first fruits of that labor.
The growing, energy-based relationship between Asia and
Canada represents a seismic shift for Canada, which until now relied on the
United States market to buy almost all of its oil and gas. Today, southbound
oil pipelines are almost at capacity and political theater is slowing the
approval process for new lines to a snail's pace, just as production in the oil
sands is set to ramp up. Similarly, shale gas discoveries across western
Canada have delineated vast new reserves that are begging for new buyers.
Canada needs to diversify its export list if it wants
to capitalize on its unconventional energy resource wealth. Asian nations,
led by China, are racing to put down payments on the oil and gas deposits
that will fuel their futures. Sure, Canada and Asia are in the honeymoon
stage of a new relationship, with multibillion-dollar deals keeping things
new and exciting. When CNOOC, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, Korea Gas, and the other Asian
energy firms pressing Canada to permit oil and gas pipelines to the west
coast come up against regulatory roadblocks and popular opposition, the new
relationship will get a real test.
For now, however, it looks like the United States is
losing a race that it has always led – the competition for Canadian
energy resources (it's especially losing out to China, whose purchases of North-American
energy resources include a stake in a Texas oil shale project).
Interestingly, this is happening a few short years after the army of oil
refineries along the Gulf Coast spent billions upgrading their facilities to
process heavy oil in preparation for an onslaught of Canadian oil sands
bitumen. If Asia beats out the US for access to Canadian oil, US refiners
will be left paying a premium for heavy oil from other suppliers – not
an ideal situation.
It's also interesting that this is happening just as
the US seems to be at risk of finding itself distanced from two of its
strongest Middle Eastern energy allies – Egypt under its new Islamist
government and Israel, which might move gently away from the US in order to
secure strategic ties to Russia. Is a hegemonic outlook still clouding US
views on the security of its relationships and energy supplies, leaving the
nation complacent while its competitors race to lock up new resources and
secure new friends?
It's a very interesting thought, but the details of
that discussion are best saved for another day. The point for today is that
increasing desperation from resource-needy nations to secure oil and gas for
their futures is putting the world's complex web of relations under
incredible pressure. Longstanding allegiances are being tested, and any
nation that assumes its historic friends and suppliers will simply stay by
its side risks losing precious supply streams. Lubricated with money and the
potential for future profits, new friendships are being forged that could
alter the global balance of power.
Energy security underlies every country's abilities for
today and prospects for tomorrow. Without secure access to the resources that
power buildings, move vehicles, connect people, and enable growth, a
country's economy will stagnate and its global influence dwindle. From that
perspective it is easier to understand why Russia is considering a 180-degree
shift in its Middle-Eastern relations, why China is willing to spend tens of
billions of dollars on schools, wells, and hospitals in Africa, and why Asia
is offering fat premiums to take over Canadian energy producers in a down
market.
Energy is the new global currency, and its influence is
starting to change the rules of the global diplomatic game. China is playing,
Russia is working its hand, and countries with resources from the Black Sea
to the Horn of Africa are placing their bets. As for the United States, it
seems to be a couple of steps behind and had better figure out a game plan
before new allegiances solidify and the US finds itself alone.
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