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The price of Rice doubled in the last 2
months raising fears of fresh outbreaks of social unrest across Asia, where the grain is a staple food for more than
2.5bn people. (See article in FT.com here)
This should come as no surprise since
grains, energy, and just about every other commodity prices have risen a minimum of 50% in the last 6 months. And a strong
physical demand and lax monetary policy will continue to fuel high commodity
prices.
You might have also read that Carlyle
Fund and Bear Stearns blew up in the past month. Two companies going down is
not a cause of concern as companies rise and fall all the time. However, when
considering they have about $300 billion worth of mortgage positions with
their counterparty sweating, you begin to understand why the New York Fed
agreed to advance $30 billion to help JPMorgan
assume Bear Stearns positions. Last year, I wrote that the mortgage mess was
minimum a $2-3 trillion problem. We are about half way through, so expect to
still see massive write downs from pension funds, endowments in 2008,
together with perhaps another major blow up besides Bear Stearns.
All those bailouts are creating moral
hazards and the Fed has no room to raise rates to combat inflation. Monetary
instability and fears of inflation are gold's best friends. This is why my
focus right now is on precious metals. I expect the mortgage mess climax to take
place in 2008, which will more or less correspond to a spectacular rise for
gold this year.
Asia
barely sneezed at subprime but they sure are
catching cold feet on inflation and fever on gold. Technically, at $920/oz
Gold is comfortably above previous all times of $850/oz set in 1980. I am
very confident the downside is $850-$890/oz. While the upside is anyone's
guess, studies suggests a gold price between $1,500 to $2,000/oz based on
today's oil and copper price of $100/barrel and $3.7/pound respectively.
Interestingly though, gold juniors as a
whole are trading today at their lowest level this decade relative to the
price of gold as illustrated in the chart of the following article:
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=9509
It makes no sense that the American
mortgage crisis is impacting Canadian gold and resource juniors. One can now
margin at 5% to buy oil trusts paying 15% dividend and gold juniors for less
than $10/oz in the ground. I am confident the situation will reverse, offset
not by higher interest rates but by higher junior stock prices.
Within two months and as soon as we hit
the bottom of interest rates, I expect all the hoarded money to spill out
looking for a new home as it simply does not pay to park money earning 2%
with real inflation running at double digits.
I monitor hundreds of companies every
day and pick entry points. In the last 6 months, juniors have decisively
bottomed after their prices have been slashed up to 90% in some extreme
cases. I am now seeing nice pops here and there like mushrooms on a sunny
spring day after the storm. There are many quality junior companies with good
cash positions, a low market cap and good prospects. Some of them are
featured at www.goldmau.com.
I hope you have enjoyed this update. I
invite you to join the gold ride.
By :
John Lee, CFA
www.goldmau.com
John Lee is a
portfolio manager at Mau Capital Management. He is a CFA charter holder and
has degrees in Economics and Engineering from Rice University.
He previously studied under Mr. James Turk, a renowned authority on the gold
market, and is specialized in investing in junior gold and resource
companies. Mr. Lee's articles are frequently cited at major resource websites
and a esteemed speaker at several major resource
conferences.
Please visit GoldMau
for instant market alerts and stock updates.
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