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The US Dollar rally in the last
several weeks has been remarkable. At closer examination, it highly resembles
a spurt prior to death. Imagine an old man who just had a heart attack, lost
feeling in certain body parts, his mind not working right, plenty of nonsense
gibberish coming from his mouth, and now he is dancing hard on some last
gasps. The vast liquidation movement is akin to the old man going through an
embalming process while dancing atop the tables at the funeral parlor, as
bidding proceeds for his cadaver.
Are Americans last to
realize the financial structure destruction means the US Economy does not
enter a recession, but rather a bizarre unprecedented disintegration? It
seems so. The liquidation of speculative positions, the massive de-leveraging,
the payout's of defaulted bonds, these events are the opposite of
developments toward revival or resuscitation, like business investment!! Liquidation
is the exact opposite of investment, and precedes job cuts, not job creation.
The following survey
of important issues is covered in depth in the October Hat Trick Letter. This
month, an additional Crisis Coverage report was included, since too much has
been happening, most of it confusing. Plenty of stories are occurring behind
the stories, many covered. Here is a quick survey touching the surface on
issues discussed and analyzed more in depth for subscribers.
FACTORS BEHIND US
DOLLAR RALLY
What is pushing the
US Dollar up cannot be construed as anything remotely resembling healthy
factors. In no way whatsoever does it resemble investment. It is more like
paid off death contracts, paid off death investments, paid off transfers from
toxic US bonds into what are falsely regarded as safer US bonds with a
guarantee from a crippled USGovt. Foreign financial entities are liquidating
on massive scale. They need a tremendous amount of US Dollars in order to
complete transactions. Also, a tremendous amount of US Dollars are needed for
CDSwap payout's as defaulted bonds are resolved. Almost all CDSwap and other
credit derivatives are paid out in US Dollars The Lehman Brothers payout was
full of lies, again. The Lehman Brothers total volume of corporate bonds was
$160 billion, but $400 billion existed in total CDS volume tied to them! It is no surprise that the Dow and S&P500
stock indexes fell hard (by almost 400 points on Dow) and on the Lehman
resolution day. And market mavens boasted of no impact on the
Lehman funeral date!
The DTCC (Depository
Trust & Clearing Corp) reported only a net $5.2 billion payout on the
Lehman Brothers failure CDSwap resolution. The ‘Dis-Trust Clearing
Corp' might want to check credit derivative experts who claim between $220
billion and $270 billion in that total after netting. By the way, the DTCC is
the official banking entity that oversees all stock clearing overnight,
including all the naked shorting. The
de-leveraging process has left the central bankers empty handed, exposed as
having empty financial cupboards. Thus the need for massive central bank
swaps from the US Fed, which has perversely farmed out its function to
foreigners. In fact, the foreign central banks might be in
possession of more US$ inventory items than the US Fed So the US central bank
has asked foreign central banks to do its job, and to manage the world reserve
currency? This amidst a US$ rally!?!
The Credit Default
Swaps are capable of burning Hiroshima holes all over the US financial system, resulting in US Economic implosion from eliminated bank and financial
system structures almost entirely. The process has only begun, but in
darkness. The other purpose for big bailouts was to prevent CDSwap
explosions, risking a string of bombs to go off. The key aspect of CDSwap
contracts is their hidden nature, with fuses intersecting in the dark.
When the market mavens
talk about the de-leverage process, they refer to speculative investments
being liquidated. Oftentimes, they do not include in the story how Wall
Street firms, desperate to stave off bankruptcy, are targeting viciously
their own clients. The big accounts lie in hedge funds, where the private
wealthy are being decimated. Credit is being pulled. Margin calls are being
delivered. Margin ratios are being raised. Those funds whose positions are
aligned with the predators on Wall Street continue in their investment
portfolios. Those funds in opposition are attacked with artillery, carpet
bombs, and early morning raids. The
US
Dollar is rallying
amidst this type of sinister liquidation.
The result has been
numerous spread trades anchored by the USTreasury Bond are forced into sale. That
means a USTBond buyback occurs from the short cover on the trade. Whether a
spread on mortgage bonds, corporate bonds, emerging market bonds, or crude
oil, or gold, the trade is liquidated, and a USTBond is bought back. NO TANGIBLE
END DEMAND, ONLY USTREASRY BOND SHORT COVERS. This is the basis for a US$ rally?
WORSENING US$
FUNDAMENTALS
How many times have
we seen the US stock market go down, non-government bond yields rise, the US
Dollar rise, and the USTBond yields fall? That has been the norm in the last
few weeks. These are death signals, not investment signals. The US Economy
cannot afford liquidation and constricted credit, a well-known fact,
seemingly forgotten today. These signals come amidst falling confidence, more
bank distress measures, more job loss, more home foreclosures, and lately,
trouble with letters of credit at port facilities.
Financial markets,
including the US Dollar, have yet to factor in the deep US Economic recession.
The US Dollar rally
flies in the face of deteriorating fundamentals. See job cut
announcements at Caterpillar, Merrill Lynch, General Motors, Chrysler,
several Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs today. Weekly jobless
claims at close to half a million per week, equal to peak during the
unrecognized 2001 recession. See the UMichigan consumer sentiment, Philly Fed
index, Empire Fed index, leading economic indicators, durable goods orders,
on and on. Retail sales, the backbone of the backwards US Economy, are
plummeting. That is, the plummet is before inflation price adjustments. Car
sales are plummeting also.
Exports are to be
worse from the higher US$ exchange rate on the table, combined with slower
foreign economies. The improved export trade has been a big boast from the
lunatics running the asylum. The US Economy is accelerating in its decline,
certain to produce a recession and huge USGovt deficits. That deficit is
likely to at least double and possible quadruple next year. USTreasury Bond
issuance cannot conceivably finance all, or at least half, of the
commitments. The printing press will do the rest, which will cut down the US$ valuation. The US Dollar decline lies ahead, when the distortions slow or come to an
end. Gold will soar on the other side of this liquidation.
An extreme backlash
attack is coming against the US Dollar Rising import prices in foreign
economies have already caused alarm. Foreigners will soon attack the US$ in a matter of time, using heavy US$-based reserves. Their banking sectors are in
disarray, primarily because they are intimately tied to the US$ and USTBonds. The process has begun with Brazil and Mexico in Latin America, to use
their strong reserves and sell into this queer US$ strength. That is what
reserves are for. The process will spread to other nations.
GOLD MARKET CLOSE TO
BREAKING
The gap between the
physical gold market and paper gold market is widening. An example bears this
out. In Toronto this week, a major off-market gold transaction took place. The
price paid was $1075 per ounce on the physical transaction. Its volume was in
the multi-million$. There was no US involvement in the transaction, and the
settlement was in euros. Enormous repositioning is ongoing by the groups that
will participate in the new, partially gold-backed currency. My take is this
movement is from a large financial entity with global activity, and ties to
central banks. It might be tied to the upcoming split in the euro, into a
Nordic Euro and trashed Latin Euro. The Nordic version might contain a gold
component. This and other transactions are taking place with European
settlement. They are being satisfied in the alternative market, far from the
distortions of COMEX. This was a physical transaction with the real metal
being moved. Big shifts occur behind the scenes. A couple of months ago, 400
metric tonnes were moved into storage with the Royal Canadian Mint by a
sovereign entity.
The more massive the
paper manipulation, the more violent the coming correction. The asylum
managers are losing control of their paper-physical arbitrage. Watch the gold lease rates, and silver lease
rates, which have each more than tripled in the last two months. Lease rates
precede price movement. Bullion bankers, including central
banks, are reluctant to lease their physical supply. This time is no
different, an event to come after the COMEX criminality is swept aside, or
simply overwhelmed in return. One well-informed source, with over two decades
of gold market experience, actually expects arrests to take place among COMEX
officials before long.
John Embry of Sprott
Asset Mgmt has raised the possibility of a December gold futures contract
default. He is not predicting it, or claiming it as certain, but rather
mentions how talk centers on the December gold contract as having extreme
stress for actual delivery. Pressure is building. The December contract not
only is end of quarter, but end of year. He suggests a possible default. He
said, “there is probably going to
be such an event to change perceptions.” He cited a
possible force majeure that could act as a “seminal
event that defines the whole situation.” He explained that
the physical gold price would then dictate the paper gold price, a return to
normalcy, and with a gigantic move up in the gold price. Right now the paper
gold market is overwhelming the physical side, but the physical side is
constricted on supply. He explained that hedge funds are being unwound on a
massive scale, slaughtered by margin calls. The long side must call for
delivery on many contracts. He also expects there will be many questions on
the Exchange Traded Funds soon as well, although those are surely not as
important as the COMEX contract defaults. Watch and listen to his interview
on the Canadian Business News Network (CLICK HERE ), and be sure to move to the 10
to 11 minute mark.
NEW BRETTON WOODS II
FARCE
Last weekend in Brussels, G8 Finance Ministers met. Among other things, they discussed a reform to the
global banking structures. For the many challenged on geography, that city is
in Belgium, headquarters for many European Union functions, in Western Europe. Creditors were not present, which
means the finance ministers were talking to themselves. Credit masters were
not invited. The nations whose banking systems are in the process of
implosion are essentially attempting to revise the global currency system. Those
in attendance constitute the losers! However, the Arabs and Chinese were not
present. This seems entirely backwards. The bankrupt nations do not dictate
to the creditors terms of a revised agreement.
Imagine a large
business saying the following. “We
are bankrupt. We want a meeting. We are going to dictate to you bankers
anyway. We are broke. Our economies are shattered. Our banking systems are in
ruins. But we going to tell you how we are to restructure our debt and rework
a new system. We realize our debts to you are bigger than we can ever repay. We
realize we cannot continue in commerce without your continued extended
credit. But we will force upon you a new system. It does not matter what your
opinion is. You do not have a seat on this elite committee, sorry!” THIS
FLOW IS NOT FROM THE WORLD OF REALITY!
No! Bankruptcy
receivership is next, where creditors will be left with few options. They
will be compelled to run management committees, and dissolve many functions
of government. Creditors will
probably await the G8 initiative, then summarily reject it. They will next
propose their own new global financial structure. The
teenager's credit card is about to be taken away, when the irresponsible kid proposes
a new repayment system, new promises, new chores done even. The kid has
burned down half the neighbourhood, yet thinks he can call the shots! Sadly,
the parents will probably ground him and force a tutor to direct his studies,
and force a strict drill sergeant to direct his work activities. His friends
will not be permitted to form new teams that include him. A ‘Post-US
World' is being planned, and Americans are the last to know. Entire new
barter systems between a key pair of nations is about to be launched. Regional
bond and commodity organizations are being formed, with exclusion of the US. The US press reports nothing on these important developments.
Foreign creditors
will form new committees, which will be recognized in time as the Receivership
Committee. Foreigners are watching in horror. Decisions have already been
made, with Americans the last to know. In
order to arrest the cancer they so clearly see, they are ready to force a
complete upheaval. The US Dollar will lose its global
currency status, a thoroughly abused privilege. The above lack of
disclosure only reinforces their motive to take action. They will move when
they must, upon a system failure, or when they are challenged, or when flimsy
attempts by debtors are made to dictate reform.
Without any changes
forthcoming soon, the foreign banking systems and economies face huge threats
to failure. To friends, family, and contacts, my approach has been to attempt
to explain the underlying forces behind revolutionary financial change. Foreigners
must cut off a cancerous body part, the one attached to the United States. Foreigners must cut off flow from a toxic systemic organ, the one attached
to the United States. CUT IT OFF OR RISK DEATH. They must disconnect of US
Dollar from the global currency system attached intimately to their own
financial and economic systems. They must to survive.
ARAB GOALS &
MOTIVES
Arabs clearly lust to
control and manage a global gold trading center. It will be in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The new Gulf dinar currency will pave the road to that
center. The Gulf Coop Council is biding time, cutting time delay deals,
warding off pressure by the USGovt, appeasing with weapons contracts from the
USMilitary, and is working behind the scenes to create a new dinar currency. The new Gulf dinar is likely to be primarily gold
in its backing. So, foreign nations will soon be forced to
purchase the dinar for all or most of crude oil payments. This forces the
purchase of gold in order to purchase crude oil. The demand for gold will
thus fortify the global banking system, by means of commodity settlements. Many
details are unknown, but the basic structure has been slowly come to light. A
new motive flashes red in front of Arabs to institute some changes FAST. The
crude oil price is down, cut in half from July. Their revenues are sharply
reduced. Russia figures into the complex deal to launch the dinar. The Saudis
and small sheikdoms need security protection. The next chapter will involve
protection amidst a gold-backed currency, not a military-backed currency, in
Saudi eyes.
ISOLATED US TREASURYS
The other side to the
Arab dilemma is that the USTreasury Bond demand is quickly eroding from
Petrodollar recycle on trade surplus. The USGovt finds itself as relying far
too much on foreign central banks for demand of USTBonds, relying far too
much soon on the printing press. The
USTBond demand is missing the oil surplus in recycle. Their
reduced and unstable oil revenue motivates the Arabs to install a new payment
system, based upon an end to the ugly defacto Petrodollar standard. It
shamefully is the basis of what my analysis has called a Protection Racket.
The incredible fact
evident in the data is that until mid-September, the US Federal Reserve has
drained liquidity from the US private banking system in order to offset its
colossal bond swap bailouts for major Wall Street and New York money center
banks. Their objective was to avoid undue US$ money supply growth. THEY WERE
TARGETING GOLD. They essentially
drained the lifeblood from the US Economy on Main Street in order to
subsidize fraud sanctioned and approved on Wall Street. Only since
mid-September has the US Fed been monetizing USTBond debt issuance. They
are running scared, printing with abandon. The gold price is falling as the
US Dollar printing press is rapidly heating up, no longer offset by bank
system drains. Details are in the Hat Trick Letter report.
DESERVED DISRESPECT
TO GREENSPAN
Can you believe what
is happening before a Congressional banking committee? Greenspan is being
grilled, as his past errors are vividly pointed out. His past memos are being
read back to him. His wrong premises are being questioned as having being
totally discredited. His opposition to credit derivative disclosure is being
challenged. His opposition to Fannie Mae reform is being challenged. He has
been brought to task for his steadfast opposition for reform in the past
during his tenure as US Fed Chairman. He is being interrupted by lowly
Congressional reps. His time to speak is being cut, in defense of others to
be grilled. HE IS BEING SHOWN THE DISRESPECT DESERVED OF ANY FAILED PUBLIC
OFFICIAL. Maybe they will demand to know who paid his second paycheck from Switzerland, and what his agenda was! Not likely! My view is that Greenspan was a primary
key person used to take down the US banking system, to pave the way for a
bigger agenda. These are intelligent people who knew what they were doing,
who were the cheerleaders, even the Mythology High Priest.
Greenspan admitted a
grand flaw in his free market ideology. He admitted being shocked that
financial markets did not self-regulate. Hey Alan! They never self-regulate
amidst a Fascist Business Model, since regulators and law enforcement is
compromised as much as humanly or institutionally possible! He admitted a failure in the
global financial market structure as he perceived it, a stunning admission. He acknowledged the US
Economy is faltering badly. He sees the rise in job layoffs and unemployment.
He sees the retrenchment in consumer spending. He sees the price declines in
housing without abatement. He forecasted a worsening recession.
His biggest admission
is this. He admits to a flaw in the structural model perceived in the
critically function for global banking. Wow! THAT IS A BIG ADMISSION, NOT
PROPERLY PERCEIVING THE GLOBAL BANK STRUCTURE. He admits to how his risk
pricing model did not take into account periods of financial stress. Hey
Alan! Is that not what they are designed for? He used to boast for a full
decade how offloaded risk via credit derivatives was a sign of
sophistication, which enabled economic expansion. Instead, my view is that
risk offload devices contributed toward an expansion atop a bubble, which
when burst, killed the entire US banking system and then the US Economy He
used to boast that credit derivatives shared the risk, but in fact it
resulted in destruction on a widespread systemic basis. Recall the many
claims made by Bernanke, that the subprime mortgage bond bust would be
contained. The former Princeton Professor is not a good student of banking
and economics! Unlike me, he is greatly encumbered by the limitations of
economics credentials! Mathematics and statistics are pure science and its
application as artistry.
NO SOLUTIONS FOR
ECONOMY FROM BAILOUTS
Almost all US-based
bailouts to date are to pay for dead financial firms. Their shareholders and
bond holders and asset base have been repaired but not restored. To think
this benefits the loan process is folly. It facilitates retirement to the Caribbean for corrupt bank executives. The flow of federal funds will not find its way to
the people, or at least only pennies per dollar will. The ‘Top-down Approach' is destined to fail
because the corruption, bond fraud, accounting fraud, financial instrument
shell game, and other assorted illicit procedures are the cause of the
problem, and all lie at the top of the structure intended to trickle down!
To expect benefits
downstream is lunacy. In fact, the devices to assist and subsidize the
criminal behaviour at the top are vastly expanding with multiple branches. No
less than five special purpose vehicles created by JPMorgan Chase were
announced on Wednesday. The number of US Fed lending facilities, all to big
banks, none to people on Main Street, has exploded to such an extent that one
needs a sports book guide to comprehend all the acronyms. David Rosenberg of
Merrill Lynch even coined the YAP, yet another program. Proliferation might
be what the architects of the Financial Coup d'Etat intended. Confusion is
the best friend of coup architects, just like truth is the first victim of
war.
The people receive $1
for every $500 given to Wall Street elite in fraud redemption. The rank &
file population entered a ‘Revolving Door' of loan repayments that
often do not reduce the loan balance, assured to end in foreclosure within a
year or so. The same nonsense of ‘Trickle Down' was prevailed when it
has no past precedent of succeeding.
The lack of
disclosure is a tragedy. Congress demands no better disclosure, and receives
none. The Lehman Brothers resolution has been conducted in total darkness. Evidence
coming my way indicates that JPMorgan is using the dead Lehman carcass as a
vast private arsenal to attack hedge funds. Some such funds have most of
their assets frozen, while their positions are attacked. What is happening is
criminal, a climax of this administration, which has been taken over by Wall
Street. A complaint has been made
that Treasury Dept documents look like redacted CIA documents, hardly what is
needed to instill confidence. One official decree after
another undermines investor confidence, the last being short rule
restrictions on financial stocks, with an exemption given to Goldman Sachs. This
is a selective bailout of Wall Street, a process run by Wall Street,
permitting financial crimes worthy of 1000-page indictments.
DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS
INTERUPTED
Big disruptive events
are occurring in the distribution system. Letters of credit are routinely
being refused by export nations who distrust US sources. A fall of 10% to 20%
in shipping traffic to western US ports has been reported. Ships are empty at
Asian ports, some even loaded but interrupted on their voyage to US ports and
European ports. Many details are given in the October Hat Trick Letter
reports. Even manufacturers of shipping vessels are being severely affected,
as credit has interrupted construction projects. Indian suppliers are often
demanding 100% upfront on costs to east coast retailers, again showing the
distrust. Almost total attention has been given to banks and credit markets
and stock markets. The US Economy is moving from recession toward something different from depression. The current
interruption could actually be more like disintegration. Short-term
credit is soon to interfere greatly with truckers and railways in
distribution channels on the domestic side, much like letters of credit are
wrecking havoc on the overseas shipper side.
The next big shoe to
drop is credit cards. Bank of America has announced plans, not yet fully
implemented, to cut back on credit cards to lower FICO scorers. The lower
60%-ile of credit score recipients will find themselves without credit cards
at all. One friend told me that he used to own 10 credit cards. Recently, all
but four were simply discontinued, but a few were not used. Other friends
said most of their credit limits were slashed. Changes are coming. Then the
next big shoe to drop will be commercial mortgage default. No reprieve, rest,
or respite for US bankers. Changes are coming. It will force defaults in most
every conceivable financial corner.
DISHONOR AMONG
BANKERS
The system is
breaking down. Just when the heart attack signals are actually improving,
although only slightly, the US Economy is falling off a cliff, as
unprecedented decay is occurring. Some improvement has been seen with the
short-term LIBOR rate, the money market funding, TED spreads, and mortgage
bond spreads. But bankers and financial subsidiaries are in focus for
dishonour.
The following message
came yesterday to my desk. It pertains to General Electric. It involved
dishonoured Letters of Credit (L/C). The US banks not only distrust each
other, they are engaging in criminal activity, like contract fraud. If big
enough, or connected well enough to the power center, it is permitted. Again,
no solutions, only proliferation of chaos.
“Try this one
on. One of our clients did a bond early last year (underwritten by RBC/Dain
Rauscher) backed up by a General Electric Letter of Credit. There is a tag
end of $1 million. The deal was the sale and lease back of 13 bank branches. One
remains. The tenant is a regional bank. RBC cannot remarket the bond now
because the market is still frozen. So the client, per the documents, called
on the L/C for performance (as allowed in the L/C, which extends to 2021). GE
has reneged on the L/C and will not pay unless the two principals come up
with $1M in cash. The client has said no way, the L/C has no such provision. GE
has said, too bad, if you don't like it, talk to our attorney. We're not
paying.” Stories like this are probably surfacing all over the
North American landscape. US banks are defending themselves by dishonouring
contracts.
COSTA RICA PREVIEW
If people inside the United States and Canada need to try an alternative location, options abound, but time is not
plentiful. One can get out of Dodge! Try Costa Rica, where the operating
attitude is PURA VIDA! (pure life!) See the ‘Living Costa Rica'
magazine website (CLICK HERE
),
whose manager VictorF joined me recently for a nice dinner in San
José. I am a cheap date, no alcohol, no coffee, no supersized body.
http://www.livingcr.com
Living Costa Rica is the number one
magazine about Relocation, Real Estate, and Lifestyle in Costa Rica. Its quarterly 5000 printed issues and online versions cover the entire country, in both
coastal areas as well as the central valley where the capital San José is located. The magazine can be found in five star hotels, business
centers, realtor offices, even gourmet restaurants. Consider a trip to the
greenest country ever my laid eyes have seen, whose land has the highest
proportion of national reserves on the planet. Gorgeous beaches, rich flowers
and orchids, stunning trees, and more abound. The central valley has no
humidity, few if any flies or mosquitoes (honestly!), and cool breezes, not
without a rainy season though.
My favorite trees are
the emerald eucalyptus (light green smooth bark easily shed) and the fuego de
monta ñ a (fire of mountain, with fiery red blossoms at top of huge
tree structures). The national economy is almost self-sufficient in
agriculture and electricity production. Restaurants, clothes, and dental care
come at 60% to 70% discounts. Rents come at 30% to 50% discounts. The nation
contains the greatest diversity of ants, birds, and other creatures, like red
frogs. Eco-tours are common to visit tropical forests with their ziplines
(aerial clothes lines for movement), white water rapids (like the famous Pacuare River enjoyed last November), volcanoes (active and dormant), even butterfly
sanctuaries. Check it out. The nation has no standing army, prefers love to
war, and the police are friendly.
The national real
estate market has little leverage with bonds and mortgages, which would put
it at greater risk. My apartment balcony includes a westward view, with
rooftops, beautiful cloud structures, the northern foothills to the city, all
lush and green. The dawn is absolutely stunning here. The air is fresh
outside the main city. Ten thousands of ex-pats in the greater metropolitan
area and 30 thousand in the entire country cannot be wrong.
THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE
CURRENT CRISIS.
At least 30 recently
on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization
deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.
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distant horizon.” (RichardB in Texas )
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ability to find and unmask a string of significant nuggets, and to wrap them
into a meaningful mosaic of the treachery-*****-stupidity which comprise our
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Jim Willie CB
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