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Of all the "investments" one might
make at this time, one of the best may be to be prepared for a breakdown of
the economy as we know it. This is not necessarily a prediction -- any more
than having fire or flood insurance is a prediction that you will have a fire
or flood. Nevertheless, it is based on an observation that there are many
factors which may render the relatively near future quite a bit different
than the recent past. This may seem kooky to some, but at least I am kooky in
good company. I note the billionaire master investor Richard Rainwater has
gone public with his own "preparing for major change" plans, and if
you begin to pay attention you will find that many wealthy individuals have
been making similar preparations for themselves. Is there something they know
that you aren't hearing about on the evening news?
What I am talking about could be summed up as:
the lights go out and don't come back on again. Foreign oil shipments stop,
or are blocked. Maybe freight shipments of goods from China and elsewhere
become impossible. Maybe food is no longer delivered to the supermarket. In
short, an economic breakdown something like what happened to the Soviet
Union, but possibly on a worldwide scale. In such case, there will be no
rescue because there will be nobody to do the rescuing.
There is a surprisingly long list of factors
that may lead to such an outcome. The gradual and irreversible decline of
world oil production, beginning approximately now, is one that has been
getting the most attention. I would also note the much more dramatic
potential collapse of North American natural gas production, which is
imminent since the continent's natural gas production verifiably peaked in
2001. Major ice deposits such as the Antarctic ice shelf or the glaciers of
Greenland have been melting at an accelerated pace, with some geologist and
geophysics types now whispering that their collapse could take place within a
couple decades, raising sea levels by tens if not hundreds of feet. Given
that most of the metropolises of the world are less than a hundred feet above
sea level, we can imagine the effects of all of these going underwater
simultaneously. Fisheries production is near collapse, and grain production
has been falling for several years now. Grain production is now well below
consumption, and formerly large world grain stockpiles have been run down to
multi-decade lows on a days-use basis.
This is just a short list, which does not
address the verifiable and dramatic increase in geophysical activity
worldwide, notably earthquakes and volcanic activity, or increasingly bizarre
weather. Seattle was just hit by a hurricane -- in December. It was called a
"windstorm" in the news, and downplayed, since we all know Seattle
doesn't have hurricanes, but when you have a cyclonic storm hundreds of miles
wide with hurricane-force winds in excess of 100mph, what is it if not a
hurricane? Disappointed skiers in North America (where the temperature is 14
degrees Fahrenheit above normal, again) might try getting on the plane to
Israel, which recently got snowfall. A New Madrid fault quake would cut every
connection -- bridge, gas line, electric line, etc. -- across the Mississippi,
and potentially reroute the river itself into the Atchafalaya drainage, where
it would have naturally gone years ago if not for a lot of levee work. This
would bring to an end the entirety of Mississippi-based shipping. Even this
doesn't get at all the things that have been going on, and the more
perceptive have probably noticed that the moon and stars have been misaligned
for a number of years now, or that anomalous weather has not just been an
Earth phenomenon, but a phenomenon of other planets in the solar system as
well.
Living doesn't really take anything more than
keeping warm and dry -- you don't even need to be dry if you are warm -- and
maintaining a stable caloric and nutritional intake. Nevertheless, a great
many people, when faced with the idea of "preparation," conclude
that they should try to maintain life as it exists today. (Toilet paper seems
to have become a sort of totem for modern industrialized life.) This is
vastly complex and difficult. They purchase high-capacity electric generators
and may store several years' worth of food and petroleum products. Let's
think about the food to begin with. If everyone is starving (as would quickly
occur if shipments from food-growing areas ceased), then you will a) share
your food with the hungry, in which case your supplies will quickly run out,
or b) you will attempt to keep others from making use of your supplies, in
which case you will man the machine gun posts until you are eventually
overrun by those who become aware that you have the supplies they need. Many
wealthy people have taken the well-stocked bunker approach, but it is
expected that this will not be successful as they will become natural targets
due to their large stockpiles, perhaps falling victim to the very mercenaries
they hired to protect them from the hungry hordes.
Thus, in the interests of suggesting something
that might work better than the rich guy's strategy, and also something that
a person of any means could undertake, I propose a much simpler, lighter, and
more flexible approach. The ultimate goal should be to be able to produce
food, and this means seeds, animal husbandry, gathering, hunting and fishing.
As far as shelter is concerned, the goal should be basic foul-weather clothing
and a knowledge of simple shelter design. Since mobility will be key -- many
places where people now live will not be habitable -- and there will
ultimately be little means of mobility except for walking, we should be able
to carry our lifestyle upon our backs. Thus, let us consider preparations
which, in total, weigh less than thirty pounds, and cost less than $1000.
1) A basic backpack. It's hard to carry stuff
in your hands. Maybe something by Lowe Alpine, which is well designed and not
very expensive. Shoot for 40-90 liters.
2) Good footwear. Running shoes are fine,
although there are more durable alternatives. Plus at least two pairs of good
quality athletic socks. Clothing can be begged/borrowed/improvised, but good
shoes can be hard to come by.
3) Clothing for all kinds of weather. Modern
outdoor clothing is amazingly good. The basic "outfit" consists of
"midweight" long underwear tops and
bottoms and a polyester "pile" jacket. Maybe two pile jackets for a
bit more warmth, an extra pair of midweight or
fleece bottoms, and a hat and gloves. All of this might weigh 5 lbs.
4) Some sort of outerwear/raingear. Among the
most versatile is the basic military poncho, which you can buy for about $20.
You can bet this has been used in every conceivable situation, and works as
both outerwear and as a rudimentary shelter. It's also good camouflage, which
may be useful.
With that alone, you can get from point A to
point B by foot in all sorts of conditions. A person, even a relatively
out-of-shape one, can easily walk 15 or 20 miles a day on paved
roads. Thus, in ten days' time, you could go 150-200 miles. Don't be
afraid to walk out of wherever you may be.
A simple blue poly tarp, the sort you can buy
in a hardware store, makes a fine shelter. However, you can also make all
sorts of simple structures from branches and other such natural material. I
would recommend the Tom Brown books for instructions to build anything for a
night to multi-year residence, from basic forest materials. You can make your
own cordage from natural materials, but it would save quite a bit of time and
effort to bring a roll of sisal twine and some nylon rope. I would also
suggest a "space blanket" or two, which can be used as a fire
reflector, cape, or rudimentary blanket. The books by John and Geri McPherson
are also good.
Learning how to make fire with a bow drill is
worthwhile, but for the shorter term it is easy enough to stock up on butane
lighters, Esbit fuel bars, magnesium lighters, and
so forth, all of which might weigh perhaps a pound.
A good knife is indispensable, and indeed a
couple good knives might be the right way to go. Something good for hacking
like a machete or hatchet, and a smaller knife for filleting fish and
butchering game, or small-scale carving perhaps. Plus a sharpening stone. If
you had to have just one tool, a Chinese-style cleaver would be good for
everything from chopping small trees to mincing garlic.
The best way to hunt animals is not with a gun
or even a bow and arrow, but with snares and traps. Indeed, this method is so
effective that it is illegal in most places, which is why nobody does it. A
wide selection of snares and traps, of good-quality steel cable, might weigh
another five pounds. Shop at Buckshot's Camp (www.bcamp.com).
Likewise, fishing with a rod and reel is fine,
but a gillnet may be better. That's why net fishing is also illegal in most
places. Pack a broad selection of hooks and line (tough to make yourself, but
you can make a pole out of anything), and a couple gillnets, which can also
be used to net birds.
A selection of a hundred varieties of fruit
and vegetable seeds is remarkably lightweight -- about three pounds. Be sure
to get "heirloom" non-hybridized seeds.
A light sleeping bag and foam sleeping pad
could be very welcome. For a very light sleeping bag, you can buy some
reflective "space blanket" survival sleeping sacks, which weigh
about 9 oz
and cost maybe $20. They also have the advantage of being waterproof. These
can be made warmer simply by piling leaves on top. (www.campmor.com)
A little plastic trowel is handy for all sorts
of digging projects, from latrines to post holes to drainage ditches. With a
folding military-type shovel you can make entire underground shelters.
Thus, we've covered seeds, hunting and
fishing. Gathering you can learn from a book, and again the Tom Brown books
are a good one-volume reference. Animal husbandry is a bit tougher since
you're not going to be hitting the road with a breeding pair of goats or a
box of live chicks. However, it might be worth learning about this anyway.
You can even raise wild animals, such as ducks, and there could be feral
chickens and hogs about. A hurricane in Hawaii in 1992 freed a population of
chickens from their cages, and they have been happily breeding in the wild
ever since.
A good week's worth of no-cooking food should
also go in the pack. Consider nuts, peanut butter and jelly, cheese, hard
sausage, chocolate, etc. A water bottle -- a 2 liter
plastic soda bottle is fine -- a cooking pot (two to four liters
aluminum, with a lid), a frying pan, and so forth.
At home, you might keep a few months' worth of
food. Secure a good supply of water and, if climate demands, a reliable heat source.
The image of preparedness also includes a
chunk of good farmland, I suppose, but this is not really necessary. In the
event of such turmoil, upon migrating to farm country one would find either
small survival communities willing to take new members (strength in numbers)
or land whose previous owners will never show up to claim possession.
Have a splendid 2007!
Nathan
Lewis
Nathan Lewis was formerly the chief international
economist of a leading economic forecasting firm. He now works in asset management.
Lewis has written for the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal Asia, the
Japan Times, Pravda, and other publications. He has appeared on financial
television in the United States,
Japan, and the Middle East. About the Book: Gold: The Once and Future
Money (Wiley, 2007, ISBN: 978-0-470-04766-8, $27.95) is available at
bookstores nationwide, from all major online booksellers, and direct from the
publisher at www.wileyfinance.com or 800-225-5945. In Canada,
call 800-567-4797.
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