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Earlier today, my web
server was down but hopefully it is now back. What timing! Here is what I
wrote on the main page of SILVERAXIS earlier:
Stupid hosting server has been up and down all day.
Silver got crushed today and it was not just the markets at work. Collapsing
copper prices set the sentiment but this was simply not normal market action.
Heck, gold was up $7 (+1%) while silver was down 60 cents (-5%). No, not
normal at all. It was three steps back in the two-steps forward,
one-step back bottoming process for silver. I just hope it wasn’t the
beginning of a stumble down a long fllight of stairs.
Now, it truly was
copper that put the big pressure on silver early. But the drop from $12.70
down to below $12.20 starting around 11AM EST was pure boolsheet. The only
thing that even makes sense is that physical buying was not very strong from
the start today, so that when the paper selling began in earnest and
overwhelmed the paper buying, there was little left to support the silver
price. How do I discern this? By looking at SLV, that’s how. I’ll
be able to explain better once the subscription service is up and running,
but for now all I will say is that yesterday SLV was trading at a decent
premium all day, yet today it traded at a bigger and bigger discount as the
silver price crashed. There might be a ray of sunshine, however, as SLV
returned to trading at a decent premium by day’s end.
I hope to share my
actual “system” for following the SLV (and GLD) premiums and
discounts — which are actually one of the basis indicators I follow —
at Prof. Fekete’s GSUL session in Canberra, Australia to be held Nov.
11-14, 2008. I am considering, however, sharing the “system” now
with those who have already confirmed their attendance at GSUL 5 and who are
willing to verbally commit to following through as a “Founding
Member” of our subscription service (by actually subscribing when we
launch). The “system” isn’t really a trading tool; it is a
very simple, rough, manual chart annotation. But I still find it to be one of
the most effective sources for analyzing the silver (and to a lesser extent
gold) market. Later on, we will hopefully be able to do this same thing in a
much more sophisticated, and perhaps real-time, manner, but for now it works
just fine.
As for the value of
what I’m offering here, I believe this “system” alone is
worth the price of the subscription service. So, if I’ve got you
curious enough, please e-mail me with
a statement that says “Yes, I will definitely be subscribing to your
service and I will be attending GSUL 5 in Canberra.” If you are one of the 22 winners of the 2 free subscription contests,
then I just need confirmation that you are attending GSUL 5. If you
haven’t signed up for Canberra yet, please make sure to let Philip
Barton know that I sent you.
More cheap and
shameless promotion to come later.
Tom Szabo
Silveraxis.com
Tom Szabo was born in Hungary
during the Communist era and escaped to the West with his family, eventually
settling in California. After graduating from the University of California at Berkeley with a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration, he spent 8
years as a financial statement auditor with Deloitte & Touche, focusing
on financial institutions. He has co-founded several
precious metal related businesses and investment funds, invests for his own
account and runs the website at www.silveraxis.com. His specialty is
original, controversial, unpopular and contrarian thinking.
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