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The
following essay is derived from selected newsletters starting with our May
2006 letter, which began with the following quote:
Quote:
“High Ho, Silver! Away!”
~The
Lone Ranger
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For those not familiar with The Lone Ranger, the story centered
on a masked man, who, with his faithful Indian companion, Tonto, led the fight
for law and order in the Old West. When the Silver-Investor.com Web site was
first established it was indeed lonely. In fact, it took nearly six months
for our first subscriber to sign up. This indicates just how tough it is to
get any interest into a market at a bottom.
In fact, we had what we perceived as a very important marketing piece
at the time. We were promoting a way for investors to actually purchase
silver and gold bullion below spot price. We received some very critical
e-mail messages at the time, letting us know just what kind of scam artists
we were. The important fact however was simply that Central Fund of Canada
(CEF on the Amex) was selling for a 12 percent discount at the time. Moreover,
we addressed our critics with the facts, and yet not even one sent us an
apology.
Regardless, we have been proven correct about the huge potential in
the silver market, and this month we have seen just how quickly silver can
move. As we have stated in our radio interviews and seminars, it is much easier
to call a bottom in a market than a top. We still think that silver and gold
have much farther to go, but at this point we must pay particular attention
to what the market itself is telling us.
Again for clarity this was in May 2006:
We sent out an e-mail alert, stating that those who were inclined to
trade a portion of their holding might consider lightening up near the $11.50
area; we also stated that we were usually early and silver might go to
$15.00. We sent another alert to our e-mail subscribers and emphasized that
profit taking might be considered. This would be on a portion of your
holdings perhaps twenty-five percent
Certainly looking back it was prudent to lighten up on your positions
during the May time frame. We went on to say, “For those who are
willing to take partial profits here, we suggest you look at which companies
hold up best under the selling pressure we see ahead. These are the companies
that will snap back the fastest when this consolidation ends. Some investors
think that buying the laggards is the best way to play “catch
up,” but our experience tells a different story.”
In our May issue we had the pleasure of interviewing Mr. James of www.financialsense.com some of our
subscribers thought his insights on the economy, oil, and the metals were
worth the price of a year’s subscription alone. Regardless, all readers
should be tuning into the weekly metals report each week.
In our June
issue we stated the following,
“We sent out an alert to our e-mail subscribers on the 19th of
May and gave a buy signal, not knowing if this would be a short-term trading
bounce or a more significant move to the upside. At this time, all
indications are that we had a tradeable bounce here
and we sent out another alert on May 31st stating to either sell
this short term trade or sell at least part of your “trading”
position.”
Of course this essay mainly focuses on timing yet there is much more to
being a successful investor/trader in the resource sector. Sometimes it pays
to buy right and sit tight and we do wish to re-emphaize
that extremely important point. The “problem” is from a bigger
picture perspective is many investors are just now coming into the market or
perhaps came in at the top in May 2006 and are still frustrated.
We like to find what others refer to as discovery investments and in the
June issue provided information on a company that had just located a
geophysical conductor that bears a striking similarity to the Voisey’s Bay Nickel Deposit in Labrador.
For those that are not familiar with the Voisey
Bay story
“Diamond Fields” was looking for diamonds and discovered one huge
nickel discovery. The stock started at around eighty five cents and topped
our near $300.00 AFTER splitting two for one. It doesn’t take many of
these types of speculations to make investors smile!
Additionally in the June issue we were able to uncover a company that
many of our subscribers have pestered us about and that was “what
company” was Mr. Puplava talking about on his
radio show, here I cannot take credit one of our astute readers found the
information and did an excellent write up on this company for us here at The
Morgan Report.
Moving on to our July issue we stated,
“As the market has been trying to find a bottom, the top-tier
companies such as Glamis Gold (GLG) and Silver
Wheaton (SLW) have had very solid performances, making gains of well over 20%
off the recent low. We wish to affirm this important fact to our readers
because the safest and, most of the time, easiest money can be made by
placing funds into these investments and speculating with the juniors only.
We do not wish to belabor the point that the right junior can make up
for lots of mistakes, but it is the most difficult area to analyze and access
risk. The way to approach the junior sector is to place “small
bets” on companies we feature or are of your own choosing. This is
money you can afford to lose. There are several ways to obtain this
“play” money, but let me share one example.
We went on to give and example of what could be achieved with one
stock from our Asset Allocation Model, where the right amount of trading
volume and institutional support made this a good selection as would any of
the others in this classification.
In the August edition we wanted to affirm the bigger picture
especially looking at the institutional side and how it will influence
precious metal demand going forward.
“We thought that the second leg up in the
metals would be due to increased participation by the retail investor, but at
the same time the institutional investment community would start to
understand the importance of having this exposure, and I made a commitment to
work more on the institutional side over the next few years.
Our initial step into this venue was our recent trip
to New York City
at the Princeton Club on July 19 and 20 for the Triple Gold Investment
Conference. The first day was devoted to silver and the second day was
devoted to gold and oil markets. Jeff Christian from CPM Group gave an
overview of the silver market very similar to what we reported to you last
month.
My presentation focused primarily on the requirement
for all investors, especially institutions, to have exposure to physical
metals with a weighting of between 7% and 15%. The 7% exposure is a minimum
for low-risk performance. The basics are simple; precious metals are the only
assets that correlate negatively to all other investments, and therefore a
small amount (7%-15%) will protect a portfolio during any investment
environment and increase returns.
The reason it is especially important for managed
money (institutions) to have exposure to the precious metals is because now
that a validated study is available (Ibbotson Study), these people are
responsible to take prudent action. And in the event of a large general
market breakdown, the institutions are vulnerable to possible legal action. As
the fund and money managers throughout the world know of this report, it should
generate more interest in the sector.”
More interest has come into the sector and will
continue as tension increases in the geopolitical and financial arenas. With
energy prices abating recently investors with clear fundamental understanding
of today’s world are staying calm and holding or adding to their
holdings.
In the September issue we wrote,
“Although your editor
does a great deal of technical work, we focus more on the fundamentals. But
we need to step back, focus on the big picture, and get clarity. If you look
at a chart of Newmont Mining, from the bottom in October 2000 near $17 per
share, and connect all the bottoms, a very clear picture emerges. Newmont
could get as low as $40 per share and still be in the major bull market. In
fact, with Newmont’s current price near the $52 level, the stock is
really in the middle of its current range forecast.
Many major analysts are looking for Newmont to trade near the $71
level next year and we agree. The question of course is how it will get to
that level.”
It wasn’t much longer and we issued a BUY ALERT to our
subscribers on October 5, 2006.
Buy Alert
October 5, 2006
As stated in the October report our analysis predicted that gold might
touch the $550 area, which is roughly the 300 day moving average. During
yesterday’s trading gold traded very close to this level. Furthermore,
in a recent issue we made the case that Newmont Mining could hit the $40.00
area and still remain in a major up trend.
Looking at the above chart we see that the past few trading sessions
Newmont fell rapidly on heavy volume. Much of the volume is short covering
and should be supportive of the price. Annotating this chart caught me a bit
off guard because the major up trend line did not intersect the $40.00 price
exactly. I had done this exercise previously (chart work) using another
charting service we have and the major up trend did intersect the $40.00 area
precisely.
I want to point this out for a couple of reasons, first technical
analysis is only a tool and it can vary depending upon how the data is
manipulated and how the chart itself is structured. Specifically, what is the
rise over run (remember your graphing work from junior high)? The above chart
is a semi-log scale so the grid is compressed in the vertical axis. Secondly,
we use technical analysis basically to confirm our work on a fundamental
level and by employing both as objectively as humanly possible bring our
readers the ability to anticipate this very volatile market.
We are definitely in a range where aggressive buying should take
place, but please do not be in too big a hurry. Only
looking backward will we know if this is the best buying opportunity we have
had in quite some time. We are still a bit wary of
the overall market and how much pressure may still be available to make the
precious metals look like poor performers through the United States
elections coming this November. As much as we all like to buy at exact
bottoms, it is actually safer to buy once a bottom is confirmed and pay up to
enjoy this level of comfort. Because we stated we would become more
aggressive during Phase 2 of this major bull market we are sounding the buy
alert now! BUT—taking your time over the next few months is still the
best strategy in our view.
Silver has remained stronger that gold, which is hard to believe,
based upon the pounding the metal has taken recently. The reason this
statement is correct is that the gold/silver ratio has remained around the 53
area. If gold were holding up better than silver the ratio would spread and
we might expect to see a 60 to 1 ratio for example. In fact we do not rule this
possibility out entirely and if it were to occur our thinking would be it is
the final piece of the puzzle to give us every confidence that the worst is
over and we should be fully invested.
Analyzing silver has always been more difficult than gold in my view
and with the new S-1 filing from Barclay’s to increase the number of
shares in the I-shares Silver Trust this might have the effect of putting a
floor near the $11.00 level for silver.
Summary: This
is a BUY ALERT
We want to see our readers move into this sector but with some
caution. The top tier stocks have not really signaled
that the short covering, which has begun, is completed. Secondly, the
political pressure to keep the entire “commodity sector” cool
through at least the election period still exists. Very conservative
investors may simply observe the market from here and only add to positions
once the market has confirmed a bottom.
What are we saying now? Have we confirmed a bottom? We explore this
issue and many more in the November edition of The Morgan Report.
For those that would like to follow are work closely we suggest the
following actions.
- Bookmark
our weekly metals report with Jim Puplava
- Bookmark Kereport.com with Al Korelin and Paul Warren they frequently interview
companies and writers in the natural resource sector
- Bookmark
our new radio
show on Kitco Silver
- Sign up for
our free email
service we send out any radio interviews or special
events to this list so they have the opportunity to listen or
participate.
- Bookmark FNMM.com, which
provides a Free, Market Perspective on politics, the economy and gives a
great deal of information on natural resources.
By: David Morgan
www.silver-investor.com
Mr. Morgan is a
contributor to Mining Industry Review an e-TV program, available at FreeMarketNews.com He also hosts a weekly Metals Wrap up each week on the Financial
Sense Hour see www.netcastdaily.com/fsnexwshour.htm
Mr. Morgan and has written numerous articles, his e-mail newsletter, The
Morgan Report is issued on a monthly basis and includes economic news,
overall financial health of the global economy, currency problems ahead and
the reason why people need to be invested in the precious metals. His website
is www.silver-investor.com. His
book “Get the Skinny on Silver Investing” should be available
shortly.
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