Treasury Yields Decline in Spite of Price Inflation; Mortgage Rates vs. Treasuries

Curve Watcher's Anonymous has its eye on the US treasury yield curve today.



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Chart Symbols

• $TYX: 30-Year
• $TNX: 10-Year
• $FVX: 05-Year
• $IRX: 03-Month

A rally in the mortgage-bond market may send U.S. home-loan rates to the lowest in almost a year, bolstering a slowing real-estate recovery.

Yields on Fannie Mae securities that guide borrowing costs because they’re used to package new 30-year mortgages for sale fell 0.04 percentage point today to about 3.16 percent as of 1:50 p.m. in New York, according to a Bloomberg index. That would be the lowest closing level since yields reached a four-month low of 3.15 percent on Oct. 29, after they surged to as high as 3.81 percent in September.

The average rate offered on typical 30-year mortgages fell to a six-month low of 4.2 percent this week from a 2013 high of 4.58 percent in August, according to Freddie Mac surveys. Borrowing costs, which are driven by changes in lenders’ profit margins as well as bond yields, are up from a record low 3.31 percent in November 2012