If the bulls cannot stop the selling, put in a bottom, and turn this around we might be in for something notable.
Hopefully the bulls will be able to get their act together to at least stop the selling as they square up their positions into the holiday.
I have to say that I am not 'feeling the fear' yet and the safehavens are notably quiet.
And it would not take a lot to turn the market higher. A word or two from Trump, or one of his proxies, or the Fed's Jay Powell would likely do the trick.
The risk in that is, of course, that if they give it a go and it does not stick, then after an initial bounce the market may take another leg down with a vengeance. And once the panic sets in, and the real fear selling is underway, it may be too late for jaw-boning to work, even if one if wielding the jawbone of a truly formidable donkey.
I have started to populate the spreadsheets I made in 2000, and last used in 2007, which track the movement of this market and compare it with significant declines from the past.
I have been underestimating the volatility in the NDX using eyeball measures on the chart. One really needs to plug the numbers in.
This is a light trading week. If the bulls cannot turn it on Wednesday or Friday then their hearts may not be in it.
The market is not dominated by 'value investing' but by momentum traders and algos. In that sense it is vulnerable to an outsized move, both up and down.
If there is a 'crash' as I noted some time ago there is little doubt it will be blamed on Trump's trade policies, and to some extent Brexit. This would be a coup for the globalists and freetraders.
They will never acknowledge that the Banks and their Fed willfully allowed an asset bubble to grow, for the third time, in order to continue the transfer of wealth to the top under the guise of investment and asset allocation.
When I dropped my son off at the airport I told him the stock market may crash while he is there, but not to be concerned because I have made provisions.
You may wish to do so as well, even though I still think a crash is a low probability event.
See you tonight.
