When it Doesn’t Rain, it Doesn’t Pour

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Published : January 18th, 2013
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

Read the Thursday Afternoon Wrap-Up for 1/17/2013, Special Alert Commentary and the Friday Morning Commentary for 1/18/2013

When I moved to the Denver/Boulder suburbs in May 2007, a significant factor in my decision was Colorado’s world-class skiing.  I had been to the Steamboat resort five times before; and each time the snow was plentiful, beautiful, and constant.

However, in recent years DROUGHT conditions have dramatically changed what was once one of the world’s great ski meccas; and, for that matter, other iconic North American areas like Utah, Tahoe, and Vancouver’s Whistler – the latter of which, barely had any snow for the 2010 Olympics.  I remember well, as I was in Vancouver for the Cambridge Conference a week before; when it was a balmy 60 degrees, accompanied by unending rain

Vancouver 2010 to Be Warmest Winter Olympics Yet

Aside from the 2011 ski season – which was fantastic – three of the past four years have been terrible; culminating in this year; as of now, the worst yet.  I had thought last year was bad, but this year I have yet to use my $500 ski pass because conditions have been so poor.  Heck, I can’t remember the last time it rained.

I guess there are worse things to worry about; but then again, for the Colorado economy, skiing is a MAJOR source of tourism and tax revenue; not to mention, in the other, aforementioned ski areas…

Vail Resorts 2012 earnings, revenue and skier visits down

More ominously, the expanding U.S. DROUGHT portends higher 2013 – and beyond -food prices…

Drought in Colorado and nationally will lead to higher food prices

…which for a nation subsisting on food stamps – could foster surging unrest

Federal Food Stamp Program Spent Record $80.4B in FY 2012

…as we learned in the Middle East in 2011; where citizens spend the largest percentage of their income on food…

Food prices taking bigger bite of budgets

….and ultimately, overthrew entire governments

Use your loaf: why food prices were crucial in the Arab spring

Sadly, 2013 has started as badly as 2012 ended…

2013 Already a Drought Disaster

..with an added “black swan” now in the mix; the potential un-navigability of the nation’s most important food transportation corridor…

Mississippi River May Soon Be Unnavigable, Despite Army Geoengineers’ Best Efforts

…which could yield surging prices…

World on track for record food prices ‘within a year’ due to US drought

…“water wars”…

Amid Drought, Water Wars Pick Up on Borders

…and ultimately, REVOLUTIONS…
Food prices may be catalyst for 2013 revolutions

As I write, the U.S. “FAO Food Price Index” is hovering just below 2011’s RECORD HIGHS; and if it breaks to new highs in 2013 …

…amidst an expanding global recession…

O.E.C.D., Slashing Growth Outlook, Warns of Global Recession

…and exploding Central bank MONEY PRINTING…

…the global ramifications could be CATASTROPHIC.

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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