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If traders in
the commodities markets were to check into a Psyche ward, the files would no
doubt read "Bi-Polar" or Schizophrenic." This is so, because commodity
traders have a habit of fixating on a set of data one day, and then quickly
forgetting about the data the very next day, and re-focusing on something
else. Market sentiment often turns on a dime, and without notice. This
shifting of sentiment in commodity futures is nothing new, of course. That's
why for decades, dabbling in commodities was considered too risky for most
investors, since sentiment, by definition, is unpredictable and impossible to
measure.
Bipolar
disorder, describes a set of behaviors that causes people to have big swings
between severe high and low moods, and switching from feelings of being
overly happy and joyful to feelings of sadness and depression. Because of the
highs and the lows -- the condition is referred to as "bipolar"
disorder. In between episodes of mood swings, there are moments of so-called
normalcy. Schizophrenia on the other hand is characterized by delusions,
hallucinations, and incoherence, and is classified as a "thought"
disorder while Bipolar Disorder is a "mood" disorder. In either
case, these traits help to explain some of the reasons behind erratic price
movements on a daily basis that vexes many retail traders.
In 2011,
commodity traders started out with a positive frame of mind. The Federal
Reserve's money printing operation, dubbed "QE-2," was running at
full steam and flooding the world with cheap dollars. However, markets do not
travel in straight lines. There are always zig zags along the way. There were numerous minefields that
commodity traders had to navigate through, before reaching the finish line
for 2011. There was the loss of Libya's oil output, an earthquake and tsunami
in Japan, the Silver bubble, the collapse of the Greek bond market, the Bank
of England's QE-2 scheme, the ECB's 11th hour rescue of the Euro-zone's
banking system, and finally, signs that China's factory sector was sagging
under the weight of Beijing's monetary tightening campaign and clampdown on
real estate.
In recent
years, the wild swings and volatility of the markets has become greatly
magnified, due to the actions of high frequency traders (HFT), who specialize
in day trading, - the buying and selling huge blocks of equities, often
moving in sync with whatever direction the wind might be blowing on any given
day. Two-thirds of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq is now handled by computer programs,
that doesn't require any human input. While equity markets are still
the favorite den of speculation for HFT traders, many of these "black
box" traders are now setting up shop in the commodities markets.
At the peak
of the commodities boom in April 2011, about $412-billion was stashed away in
managed commodity funds, buoyed by the Fed's radical QE-1 and QE-2 money
printing schemes. The Fed's experiment with QE was a huge success, that is to
say, the Fed was able to conjure-up the illusion an economic recovery by
simply printing vast quantities of paper currency that was covertly channeled
into the stock market through its agents on Wall Street. Furthermore, the Fed
proved that it could prevent the specter of deflation, by cheapening the
value of the US-dollar in relation to other currencies. For eight straight
months, the Dow Jones Commodity index zig-zagged
its way higher, as the Fed fulfilled its pledge to inject $600-billion of
freshly printed US$'s into the coffers of the Wall Street Oligarchs.
When the Fed
first telegraphed its QE-2 scheme in August 2010, the high octane MZM money
supply was languishing at a -2.3% annualized rate. By the time the Fed
finished QE on June 30th, 2011, - MZM was expanding briskly at a +9.9% clip.
Some traders reckoned the Fed was aiming to artificially inflate the value of
the US-stock market, others figured the Fed was trying to spur Beijing into
appreciating the value of the Chinese yuan at a
faster rate against the US-dollar. Whatever the Fed's motives for QE-2,
rioters soon began taking to the streets in Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Morocco,
and Yemen, ostensibly aimed at toppling repressive governments, - but also
expressing extreme anxiety and anger over skyrocketing food prices, that was
fueled by hallucinogenic effect of QE on traders in London and New York.
Commodities
are priced in US-dollars, and with the Fed flooding the world with dollars,
traders piled into markets. Copper climbed to a record $10,000 /ton in
London, North Sea Brent rose to $125 /barrel, Corn futures in Chicago hit
$7.50 /bushel, Silver futures soared to $49.50 /oz,
and rubber jumped to all-time peaks in Shanghai and Tokyo. Coffee, cotton,
and sugar also soared to all-time highs. Tyson Foods' (TSN.N) chief operating
officer predicted a "new norm" for corn prices at $7 a bushel that
was pushing up costs for cattle, chicken and hog feeders. Corn prices had
nearly doubled since the middle of 2010, and Tyson said it expected to spend
$500-million more on grain in its fiscal 2011, a +13% increase over the
roughly $4-billion the company spent on grain in 2010. Regardless, the Fed's
policy remained unchanged; - aiming to inflate the value of the stock market
with unlimited injections of liquidity and locking short-term interest rates
at near zero-percent, which in turn, fanned wild-eyed speculation.
While the Fed
wasn't scheduled to turn-off QE-2 until the end of June 2011, some commodity
traders decided to jump off the QE-2 bandwagon a few months early. They
figured that the bullish trade had become too crowded, and that the timing
was ripe for a nasty shakeout. On April 12th, Goldman Sachs shocked the
markets, by urging its clients to dump positions in crude oil, copper, cotton
and platinum. On May 3rd, Societe Generale joined Goldman Sachs in warning of tougher times
for commodities prices. "The conclusion of the second round of
quantitative easing, (QE-2), will deprive commodities of a key ingredient of
their winning streak," the French bank said. "This suggests that
the commodities bull-run support by QE-2 may run out of steam in the third
quarter if the global economy shows any signs of weakening. The end of QE-2
on June 30th could well herald the end of the commodities bull market. If
emerging market economies slow and abundant liquidity dries up after QE-2,
deflation fears may be back on the agenda in the second half of 2011," SocGen warned.
Two-days
later, on May 5th, commodity markets were rocked by a nearly unprecedented
onslaught of panic selling as modest early profit-taking snowballed into one
of the worst days on record. In a slide reminiscent of the steep sell-off in
the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Brent crude oil dived a record $12
/barrel, and natural gas dropped over -7%. Tin was the biggest loser among
industrial metals, shedding -7% to $28,500 /ton at one point. Chicago Corn
fell -3% to $7.05 /bushel and soybeans fell -2.3% to $13.19 / bushel.
Ironically, the May 5th plunge in commodities happened around the 1-year
anniversary of the May 6th 2010 "Flash Crash," on Wall Street, when
the Dow Industrials plunged -1,000-points.
Silver was
the catalyst for the slide, tumbling by nearly $5 /oz,
its biggest one-day dive since 1980. Prior to May 1st, the white metal was
zooming higher in a speculative frenzy, touching an all-time high of $49.50
/ounce from around $18 /oz in late August 2010 when
the Fed first telegraphed QE-2. Now however, Silver was on course for its
steepest fall in almost 30-years, losing -27% in a single week to $35.287 on
May 6th . Silver led the rout, undermined by the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange's decisions to increase margins for new
speculative positions by +245% in the prior weeks and months. After the May
2010 commodity plunge, fund managers were still divided over what direction
prices were headed next.
The tug-of
war in the commodity markets tipped in favor of the Bears in August, just as SocGen had predicted. While the Fed's QE-2 scheme was
generally credited for fueling the speculative run-up in commodities, led by
the Silver market, working against the bullish tide was the People's Bank of
China (PBoC). While the Fed was launching QE-2 in
Nov '10, the PBoC was draining 1-trillion yuan of liquidity from the Shanghai money market, by
lifting bank reserve requirement ratios (RRR) 150-basis points to 19-perent.
The PBoC was using calibrated hikes in banks'
reserve requirement ratios (RRR) as its main tool to tackle the commodity
price bubbles inflated by the Fed. The PBoC moved away
from using open market operations, a mechanism it has relied on for years, to
soak-up excess money. By June 2011, the PBoC had
resolutely lifted RRR's to a record 21.5%, with each half-point increase
draining 350-billion yuan out of the Shanghai money
markets.
On July 7th,
the ECB also took aim at the commodity Bulls, by hiking its overnight repo
rate for the second time to 1.50%, as the Euro-zone's inflation rate
ratcheted upwards to 3%. "Looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to
stay above target in the coming months," warned former ECB chief Jean
"Tricky" Trichet. "
Upward pressure on inflation, mainly from energy and commodity prices,
is also still discernible in the earlier stages of the production process. We
will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside
risks to price stability," he added, leaving the door open for a third
rate hike later in the year.
Yet another
big impetus for a sharp slide in commodity markets in the second half of
2011, were widespread fears that the Euro currency union might break apart,
and the upward spiral in Euro-zone bond yields could plunge Europe into a
severe recession, - thus denting demand for commodities. The catalyst was the
Greek bond market, which collapsed amid widespread recognition that Athens
was insolvent, and couldn't repay € 370-billion debts. Contagion sales
of Euro-zone bonds soon spread from the peripheral Greek, Irish, and
Portuguese bond markets, to hit the core of the Euro-zone - Italy and Spain.
Soon afterwards, spurred by a sharp slide in the Italian and Spanish bond
markets, the Euro fell to the psychological $1.300-level, which in turn,
triggered selling in the base metals, grains, and soft commodities.
Italy became
the epicenter of the Euro-zone's debt crisis. Suddenly, the US-dollar began
to look less ugly than the Euro. If handled badly, a disorderly rout in the
Italian bond market, - the world's third largest debtor with
€1.9-trillion in public debt and €3.5-trillion in total debt,
equaling a total of 310% of its GDP, could trigger the collapse the
Euro-zone's banking network and usher in a world wide
credit crunch. European banks have historically been large players in issuing
letters of credit, used to finance global trade over the high seas. European
banks have a strong presence in emerging markets such as Latin America and
Asia, and provide for more than a third of trade finance loans worldwide.
The
commodities markets got a reprieve from the selling onslaught, on October
6th, when the Bank of England (BoE) said it would inject a further
£75-billion into the London money markets through January 2012,
effectively monetizing the government's debts, and increasing the size of its
QE-2 money printing scheme to £275-billion. The Dow Jones Commodity
index rebounded +10% in October , based on ideas that the Fed would soon
follow the BoE's lead, and launch a third round of QE, that could total as
much as $550-billion.
Still, there
are many moving parts that can impact the price of globally traded
commodities. China has the most populous nation on the planet, with more than
1.3-billion people. It is also one of the most rapidly developing countries,
logging an annualized +9% growth rate for the past 20-years. The developed
nations in North America and Europe are smaller in terms of population, and
their economies are expanding more slowly, if at all. So emerging markets in
general and China in particular, have the greatest influence over commodity
prices. China is acknowledged to be the world's largest importer of copper,
cotton, gold, rubber, iron ore, soybeans, zinc, and the second largest
consumer of corn and crude oil.
There is a
significant amount of guesswork that goes into quantifying the exact share of
China's demand for global commodities. Furthermore, trying to accurately
determine at what speed the Chinese economy is expanding is also difficult.
Many private economists have cast doubt on the reliability of Chinese
economic statistics. The biggest problem today is that Beijing is fudging
numbers in the name of politics, and that statisticians miss huge segments of
the private sector, which don't get counted in any surveys.
China is both
the world's largest consumer and producer of raw steel, and along with other
key industries such as automotive, textile, and petrochemical industries, its
steel output is considered a key barometer of its overall economy. Over the
past 30-years, China's steel production has increased at a rapid pace as the Middle
Kingdom has industrialized and urbanized. The expansion of steel production,
particularly over the past decade, has been a significant driver of China's
demand for raw materials, especially iron ore and coking coal. This has
resulted in a huge increase in China's imports of these commodities.
China now
accounts for 45% of global steel production, which is significantly higher
than its share of 15% at the start of the decade. China is itself a major
producer of iron ore and possesses extensive reserves. However, these
reserves have relatively low average iron content at around 33%, compared
with 62% in Australia and around 65% in Brazil and India. This lower iron
content makes it more expensive to process. Strong demand for steel has seen
the imported share of China's iron ore supply increase from around 10% in the
late 1980's to more than 50% currently . In recent
years, more than 80% of China's iron ore imports have come from Australia's
top miners, Brazil's Vale, and India.
So when
China's government reported that the country's output of raw steel had fallen
to 55-tons in November, and -9% less than the 60.25-million tons produced in
May, it set off alarm bells. Traders began to conjure-up fears that China's
economy was slowing at a much faster rate than expected. Exaggerated fears of
a "hard landing," made plausible by the unrelenting slide in the
Shanghai red-chip market, triggered a sharp plunge in the price of iron ore
to as low as $116 /ton, after spending much of the year between $165 and $185
/ton.
Steel futures
traded in Shanghai slumped to around 4,450-yuan a ton, after falling to as
low as 4,100 yuan in October, spooked by a slide in
the official purchasing managers' index (PMI), - the earliest indicator of
China's industrial activity. The factory PMI fell below the 50-mark in
November for the first time since early 2009. Slower demand for steel would
cut China's appetite for iron ore. Nearly 91% of the crude steel produced in
China comes from integrated mills, which use iron ore as primary ingredient.
According to
the China Daily, housing prices are up +140% nationwide in China since 2007
and, more importantly, eightfold in major cities like Beijing over the last
eight years. Real estate construction is a major driver for steel, using 54%
of supply. Overall, as much as 25% of China's economy may be tied up in real
estate and related industries. The danger of a too tight monetary policy is a
deflating real estate bubble that if it occurred, would result in
bankruptcies of builders, big loan losses to banks, and much slower economic
growth. However, such exaggerated fears never seem to actually materialize.
The effects
of a sharp slowdown in construction in China would adversely impacts prices
for cement, steel, copper and other raw materials traded on world markets.
It's estimated that if China's economic growth rate would slow to around +5%,
it could weaken demand for imported commodities by -20-percent. Iron ore
accounted for 73% of Australia's miner Rio Tinto's 2010 earnings, compared to
a 40% contribution for # 3-miner BHP Billiton. Yet every ton of crude steel
production also requires 600-kilograms of coking coal. BHP Billiton is the
world's biggest producer of coking coal. And since iron ore and coking coal
are Australia's biggest export earners, they are closely watched by traders
in the Australian dollar.
India 's economic growth rate skidded to +6.9% in the
July-September quarter, from +8.5% last year, and is forecast to slow further
amid a worsening global outlook. High inflation fueled in part by QE schemes
in England, Japan, and the US, forced India's central bank to hike interest
rates 13-times, for a total of 375-basis points since March 2010, to 8.50% in
October. Policy inertia and corruption scandals have also slowed the flow of
crucial foreign investment and knocked the Indian rupee to record lows.
European banks - which provide about $150-billion, or over 50% of foreign
currency loans to Indian companies, are starting to pull back, making it
harder to finance foreign trade, with a shrinking availability of letters of
credit. India 's industrial output fell -5.1% in
October compared with a year earlier, going negative for the first time in
two years, and rattling the commodities markets.
Gold imports
by India, the world's top consumer, plunged -56% to 125-tons in the fourth
quarter, cutting full-year imports by 8.4% to about 878-tons of gold in 2011,
down from 958-tons in 2010, the Bombay Bullion Association said on Jan 2nd. The
World Gold Council had predicted that India would buy about 281-tons in the
fourth quarter, taking total imports over 1,000-tons. However, due to record
high prices and high interest rates, Indian traders became net sellers of
Gold in the fourth quarter. In local currency terms, the price of Gold gained
+26% in 2011, due to a -16% drop in the value of the rupee against the US$.
The historic
Gold rally, lasting for 11-straight years of gains, squeaked out a +10% gain
in 2011 versus the US$. But since peaking in late August, Gold stumbled to
the threshold of a Bear market, tumbling -20% lower from its record high of
$1,924 /oz. In hindsight, Gold topped out soon after the Fed halted QE-2, -
MZM, began to flatten out and receded a bit, after many months of explosive
growth. The US-dollar's rally against the Euro, combined with monetary
tightening campaigns in Brazil, China, Chile, the Euro-zone, India, and
Russia, all contributed to a broad sell-off in the commodity indexes, and
sweeping Gold lower.
The Dow Jones
Commodity Index, - utilized as a measure of real-time inflationary pressures
in the global economy, began to tumble significantly in the second half of
2011. The inflationary pressures that were bubbling in the first half of last
year - began to rapidly unwind in the second half. By year's end, the Dow
Jones Commodity Index closed at the 140-level to stand -15% lower for the year.
Official government statistics on inflation should ratchet downward in the
months ahead to reflect lower commodity prices. Gold traders are several
steps ahead, having already discounted a lower global inflation rate, by
knocking Gold to $1,565 /oz. .
So What's
Next, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the
future," -- Yogi Berra used to say. There are many moving parts from
around the world that can influence commodity markets at any given point in
time. As such, traders often exhibit both bi-polar and schizophrenic
behavior, making forecasts a hazardous business. However, there are signals
that the latest slide in the Dow Jones Commodity Index has descended to low
enough levels to persuade Bargain hunters to bid for several key commodities.
Traders are watching for signs that Chinese importers are taking advantage of
the recent sharp slide in commodities, in order to re-stock their depleted
inventories.
Chinese users
of cotton started buying the white fiber in mid-October after it fell below
$1 /pound. Cotton plunged from a record high of $2.25 last March, and skidded
to 85-cents. Beijing purchased 2.1-million tons of cotton below $1 /lb for its reserves. US-farmers are expected plant -15%
less cotton this year, since market prices are below break-even costs at
roughly, $1 /pound. Cotton has rebounded to 96-cents /lb,
but could be a laggard among the commodity sector in 2012. Sugar futures are
more promising, and rallied +5% to start the New Year, with volume surging to
around 103,000-lots, or nearly double the 30-day average. Spillover strength
for sugar stemmed from broad based buying of commodities, especially North
Sea Brent crude oil, which averaged $110 /barrel for all of 2011.
North Sea
Brent crude oil found a floor at $100 /barrel last year, buoyed by
"quantitative easing" in England, Japan, and the US. Thanks to QE,
the price of crude oil is roughly $25 /barrel higher than otherwise. To
counter the inflationary effects of QE, the People's Bank of China hiked its
overnight loan rate +125-bps higher to 6.56%, in order to drain liquidity and
cool its economy's demand for crude oil. Also, Saudi Arabia, the central banker
of crude oil, boosted its daily output to 10-million barrels per day, to
offset the loss of Libyan oil, and to allow Asian and Western clients to
build-up their oil stockpiles.
In the not so
distant future - indeed perhaps only months from now - the US Treasury and
Europe may enact a mix of sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) as
part of an effort to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Sanctions against the CBI would leave Iran's oil customers without any way to
pay for their crude, effectively triggering a partial boycott on Iranian oil
exports. A European embargo of 450,000-bpd of Iranian crude oil would
constitute a new phase of economic confrontation between Iran and the West.
In response, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia , Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are expected
to increase their oil exports to the European Union and Asian nations once
sanctions on Tehran's energy exports and its central bank begins in the
coming months. There's also discussion with emerging oil exporters, such as
Libya, Iraq, Ghana and Angola, to increase their production capacities to
guard against any shortages caused by the West's embargo against Iran. Oil
traders are taking note, and have bid-up the price of Brent crude oil to $113
/barrel.
Oil prices
could quickly surge far above last year's high of $125 /barrel, if Tehran
makes good on its threats to bomb the Strait of Hormuz. After 10-days of
naval exercises by Iran in the Gulf, Iran's army chief Major General Ataollah Salehi issued a stern
warning, "Iran advises, recommends and warns the US not to move its
carrier back to the previous area in the Gulf because Iran is not used to
repeating its warnings and warns just once." Many traders brushed-off Salehi's comments as empty rhetoric, and instead, poured
more than $1-trillion into world equity markets on the same day. Yet other
traders saw the situation differently. The US-dollar soared +30% in a single
day to 17,800-Iranian Rials, and the price of Gold
jumped $50 /oz to as high as $1,615 /oz. If crude
oil turns sharply higher, it could also boost the price of corn, ethanol,
heating oil, gasoline, rubber, silver, and sugar.
Corn prices
stabilized below $6 /bushel and attracted strong buying interest from the
industrial farm factories and feedlots. Last year, a staggering 33.5-million
cows, 110-million hogs, and 9.3-billion chickens were slaughtered in
US-processing plants. Each pound of beef produced requires 6.5-pounds of corn
for feed. Production of ethanol hit a record high last year, and is consuming
40% of the US corn supply. Corn futures in Chicago rebounded by 10% higher
over the past 2-weeks to $6.58 /bushel, as harsh weather threatened crop
production in South America. US-corn stockpiles already whittled to 15-year
lows. Soybean futures also jumped +10% higher in the past two weeks, to
around $12.20 /bushel.
Corn and
Sugar are becoming increasingly linked in the global markets. With their dual
usage in sweeteners and bio-ethanol, increasingly sugar is looking more and
more like corn . Brazil ,
the top sugar producer, is shifting more of its cane output to sweeteners,
rather than bio-fuels. This has left Brazil, historically the top Ethanol
exporter, on track to become a net importer of US-corn based Ethanol in the
year ahead. Coffee futures could turn higher, after Vietnam, the world's
second-biggest coffee producer after Brazil, said it expects to cut its
supply by around 20% in the year ahead to 1.1-million tons.
Chinese steel
mills started buying iron ore last month, after prices briefly fell towards
$120 /ton, to replenish stockpiles before their New Year holidays start on
January 22nd. India's government is unhappy with the current low level of
iron ore prices, and is engineering a sharp reduction in foreign sales by
hiking export taxes +50-percent. Iron ore prices have since rebounded by+10%
to $140 /ton, bolstered by an uptick in China's factory PMI to 50.3.
Copper
rebounded to $3.52 /pound on the first day of trading in 2012, after finding
strong handed buyer in the low $3 /lb area in the
fourth quarter. Traders in Shanghai are restocking copper, after local supplies
were whittled down to a 2-½-year low at 57,000-tons. The US-factory
sector expanded in Q'4 at its fastest pace in six months, led by a rise in
new orders for factory made goods, apparently immune to Europe's economic
slump and triple-digit oil prices. US home building is on the upswing,
supporting copper prices.
It's an
election year for the presidency in the United States, and 15 out of 17
Treasury bond dealers predict the Fed will unleash QE-3 in the months ahead.
If correct, QE-3 would provide a major shot of adrenalin for commodity
markets and precious metals. Already, the European Central Bank has embarked
on "backdoor QE," and is flooding the European banking system with
a tsunami of Euros. Ironically, a weaker Euro led to a weakening of commodity
prices in 2011, but that faulty linkage could begin to break down soon.
Downside
risks to commodities and precious metals include a deeper than expected
recession in Europe and so-called "hard landing" for China's
economy. However, central banks in China and the Emerging nations are
expected to counter any sharp downturn in the global economy, by lowering
their lending rates, and joining the G-5 central banks by liquidity into the
markets. For precious metals, it'll be another wild rollercoaster ride. Gold
and Silver are expected to track commodity indexes, and finish higher with
respectable gains in 2012.
Looking at
the big picture, the "Commodity Super Cycle" that began 10-years
ago has been interrupted for the short-term, but still remains intact for the
longer-term, - a cycle that could extend for at least another decade. Each
day, the world's population increases by 225,000-human beings. By 2030, the
world's GDP is expected to double in size to $130-trillion, assuming a +3.5%
annual growth rate. Such massive demands on the earth's finite resources will
eventually outpace supply and lead to severe shortages of many commodities
worldwide. Tighter supplies would be rationed through much higher prices.
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