Winter of the World

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Published : September 28th, 2012
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Category : Market Analysis

 

 

 

 

I’ve read a lot of books, nearly all fiction. My intense focus on day-to-day events – financial and otherwise – has ALWAYS consumed me, so by the end of each day, I need a break from reality. That said, some of the best authors are those that combine historical characters and stories with fictional ones; an exercise that both educates and entertains the reader.


Sebastian Junger’s Perfect Storm is a great example of combining the REALITY of the Andrea Gail’s disappearance during the “1991 Perfect Storm” and the fictional account of its crew’s last hours; while James Michener is the “gold standard” of the “historical fiction” genre, having created it over a 60-year writing career. Similarly, Stephen King has expertly incorporated knowledge of his home state of Maine into his writing; as has Pat Conroy with Charleston, South Carolina and Nelson DeMille with our mutual home of Long Island, New York.


However, today’s undisputed champion of “historical fiction” is the British writer, Ken Follett. At 63, Follett has been writing for nearly 40 years. However, until his masterpiece Pillars of the Earth was published in 1989, Follett books were principally fiction – for the most part, World War II spy novels like “Eye of the Needle.”


Pillars of the Earth and its equally brilliant sequel – World Without End – are historical fiction pieces focused first on Olde England of the mid-12th Century, and then the same region 150 years later. Following World Without End, Follett contracted to write an epic trilogy covering major wars of the 20th Century. The first entry, 2010’s Fall of Giants, taught me more about World War I – while enthralling me for 1,000 pages – than I learned in my entire life; and thus far, the sequel, “WINTER OF THE WORLD” has me glued to my Kindle.


World Without End stopped at the end of World War I in 1918, and Winter of the World picks up the saga of its main characters 15 years later; in Germany, the UK, Russia, and America. The book starts out in March 1933 Germany; two months after Hitler was elected Chancellor, en route to taking full dictatorial power a year later via the newly created office of Führer und Reichskanzler.


On Tuesday, I wrote the following:


This morning, I read a profound statement that turned my entire thought process of the past century upside down. Not only was it ominous – and eerily similar to the terrifying outcome I foresee – but completely refutes the “consensus” view of history. I was going to address it this morning, but it is too meaningful to be lost in the morning commentary. Thus, it will be the topic of Thursday’s RANT topic – given that both today’s and Wednesday’s are already spoken for.


That statement came from Winter of the World, “time stamped” March 1933…


What on Earth is happening here in Germany? Maud said: “We were doing all right in the mid-Twenties, with a democratic government and growing economy. But everything was ruined by the Wall Street crash of 1929, and now we’re in the depths of a depression.” Her voice shook with an emotion that seemed close to grief. “You can see a hundred men standing in line for one advertised job. I look at their faces. They’re desperate. They don’t know how they’re going to feed their children. Then the Nazis offer them hope, and they ask themselves: What have I got to lose?


I cannot speak for Europeans, but certainly Americans; whom have been taught in every middle school, high school, and university that onerous reparations from the 1919 Treaty of Versailles created the German economic implosion that left it prone to a charismatic demagogue. Essentially ALL educated Americans are aware of the Treaty of Versailles; and those versed in finance, the Weimar Hyperinflation of 1922-23




However, there is a “convenient gap” in American history books between 1923 and 1930, where it is assumed – by teachers and students alike – Germany endured seven years of unbearable economic depression. However – per the passage above – Germany quickly recovered from its hyperinflation, as the global “can” was “kicked down the road” by the American-led boom of the “roaring twenties.”


Like the 1980 and 1990s – when global “economic growth” was fueled by post-gold standard MONEY PRINTING – the 1920s expansion was fueled by debt and speculation financed principally by the newly-formed U.S. Federal Reserve. In fact, the impact of such unabated speculation was so powerful, it temporarily lifted sickly, post-War European economies like Germany…


The Roaring Twenties Bubble & the Stock Market Crash of 1929


However – again per the book passage – it was the Stock Market Crash of 1929 that set Germany on its collision course with Hitler. Clearly, the “modern-day equivalent” of the 1929 crash is 2008’s Global Meltdown I – a “shot heard round the world” that reverberates louder each day; particularly in Europe…


Printing more money to save a failed system


…and especially Greece, the “weakest link” in the European Community; where a combination of mis-management, poor financial advice (by Goldman Sachs, among others), and a negligent populace have placed the nation’s economic and financial situation at “DEFCON 1”…


One Third Of Athens Businesses Shuttered


The ECB, European Community, and EuroZone leadership in Brussels – aided by other Western world “henchmen” like the Federal Reserve – are desperately trying to prevent Greece’s HOPELESS situation from spilling over to the rest of the PIIGS – and by extension, ALL of Europe – via its only remaining tools; MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA. However, Greece’s financial and economic implosion is becoming IMPOSSIBLE to hide


Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50%


mask


Greek Economy Shrank 6.2% in Second Quarter


…or contain


Greek unemployment rises to 24.4%


…and SHORTLY, will no longer be able to be “papered over” with goosed financial assets…




…as the inexorable, long-term trend CANNOT be stopped…




…particularly on “MAIN STREET”…


Thousands of Greeks Protest Planned Pay Cuts


…whose denizens made an initial statement at the polls in May


Radical left and neo-Nazis score well in Greek elections


…and today, is moving further down the “road to perdition”…


Popularity Of Greek Neo-Nazi Party Continues Surging


Central bank MONEY PRINTING was not the only cause of World War II, but clearly played a far larger role than we have been told. Not to mention, the strange “coincidence” that World War I commenced just six months after the Federal Reserve was created.


Read this RANT, then think long and hard of the direction you believe the world is headed, and what role MONEY PRINTING is likely to have. Afterwards, don’t walk, but RUN to…


PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it NOW!



 

 



Data and Statistics for these countries : Germany | Greece | Russia | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Germany | Greece | Russia | All
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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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