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overtheedge
Member since May 2012
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Calculating the "Fair Value" of Gold

- Paul Tustain - Galmarley.com

"Though small, the risk of severe inflation and currency devaluation is material at perhaps 0.5% in the next 15 years. "

So I hope that blue pill works out for you. Without severe inflation and negligible currency devaluation, the rate of return on PMs might be minimal. Still, I would agree that gold/silver makes for a good savings account.

The red one seems to have eliminated most all of my optimism. Just an old fool's guess, but I figure >50% probability of economic collapse in the next 3-5 years.

My reasoning is simple. The PTB will commit to the most probable courses of action that might succeed first. If these fail, they do the next one that has a lower probability of working ad nauseum . Been 5 years now and we are down to what course of action? When you are playing against world-class, you don't call in the third string junior varsity to win.

There is a thing called "The Law of Diminishing Returns." It isn't just a good idea, it is the law. The PTB seems to not understand this.

But perhaps this long drawn out mess is all about providing an opportunity for the few to shift resources in order to effect a measure of damage control.

We still agree, gold/silver make for a good defensive savings account. 0.5%/15 year or >50%/5 year, with enough bread and circuses inevitability can be delayed longer than we might imagine.

Commented 4210 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :In the absence of cashflow, judging gold's present "fair value" means analysing it like an insurance actuary would... Read More

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