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casamurphy
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ONLY CONTRARIANS WILL SURVIVE

- Egon von Greyerz - Matterhorn AM

It seems evident to me that a human population die-off is inevitable. Maybe as a species, though, we’ll get lucky and not even notice a relatively quick die-off.

Continued resource scarcity and unwinding of complexity could easily bring a tipping point towards significant population reduction over a relatively short period of time; while ironically, at the same time, allowing most people a somewhat normal life not characterized by constant war or famine; but instead simply defined by higher general mortality rates which are perceived as a new normal.

An 8 fold increase in the number of people dying every year would create a net population decrease of about 3% per year even if current birthrates continued unabated. At a 3% rate of decrease, world population would shrink from 7.4 billion to 1 billion in about 65 years. Birthrates, though, would also likely decrease during this time due to a shrinking population base. Therefore, with fairly small increases in net mortality, the current population can drop significantly in a relatively short time. Just ask yourself: “Would my life become unbearably abnormal if instead of only 1 or 2 people close enough to effect me die each year; 8 to 16 died instead?”

Within 2–3 short generations society could be back to living a pre-industrial circa 1800 life style with a world population similar to that era of 1 billion.

The extent to which people use pipe dreams about the future, to avoid adapting to a current reality imbued with decline, threatens to accelerate decline into collapse. I think the more we disabuse ourselves of the myth of perpetual human progress the better our chances of managing a gradual decline as opposed to falling off a cliff.

Commented 2532 days ago

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Beginning of the headline :We are currently standing before one of the most unique and frightening periods in history. Never have there been so many extremes in so many different areas. In the last 100 years everything seems to have developed so much faster, including population, technology, inflation, debt, money printing, budget deficits, stock, bond and property prices, crypto currencies etc. All of these areas are now in an exponential growth phase. The final stage of exponential growth is explosive and looks like a s... Read More

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