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Cours Or & Argent

Gold Sentiment Not Bearish Enough

IMG Auteur
Publié le 21 mars 2015
433 mots - Temps de lecture : 1 - 1 minutes
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SUIVRE : Precious Metals
Rubrique : Analyses Techniques

Precious metals are closing the week out with a good rally. The Federal Reserve nonsense proved to be a catalyst as it can be in either direction. Regardless of the Fed, the precious metals sector was oversold and due for a bounce. We wrote about that last week. Maybe this could be the bear market bottom. Maybe not. It concerns us that Gold is rebounding from an area of insignificant long term support amid sentiment that is not at a bearish extreme. Extreme bearish sentiment coupled with very strong support raises the probability of a major rebound or bear market bottom. I don't see that for Gold, yet.

Below is a weekly line chart of Gold with its net COT position at the bottom. Gold will close the week around $1180/oz and avoid a break below the channel. However, Gold's COT is far from a bearish extreme. Gold's three best rallies in the past two years began with its net speculative position at or below 10% (of open interest). As of last Tuesday the net position was 22%. Gold may need this to be below 10% before it can bottom.

In the next chart we plot the premium/discount to net asset value (NAV) for a pair of closed end funds. CEF (which is shown at the top) is a closed end fund that owns Gold and Silver. GTU is a closed end fund which owns Gold. Both funds are currently trading at +7% discounts to NAV. While a 7% discount is big it is well below the largest discounts seen in late 2000 (~18%) and late 2014 (13%). GTU's largest discount was 12% in late 2014.

24hGold -  Gold Sentiment Not ...

Interestingly, the mining companies aren't expecting or may not be prepared for $1000-$1100/oz Gold. The graph below is from consulting firm PwC. Look at how few companies are valuing their reserves and resources at sub $1200 Gold!

24hGold -  Gold Sentiment Not ...

With the sector in a downtrend, bulls need to see some combination of extreme bearish sentiment, extreme oversold conditions and strong technical support. Metals and miners are rallying so sentiment figures to improve a bit before it can reverse course. In the big picture sentiment is quite bearish but the indicators argue it's not quite at an extreme. The COT is one example and the premium/discount in closed end funds is another. Technically, Gold does not have strong support until well below $1100/oz. We'd like to see Gold falling below $1100/oz, getting more oversold and nearing strong support with sentiment reaching bear market extremes. Those are the conditions for great buying opportunities that can lead to a bear market bottom.

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Gold has been severely manipulated ever since the shifty eyed crook nixon closed the conversion of devils dollars for GOLD.
That GOLD managed to reach $800 in the eighties and $1900 in 2011 is quite remarkable given that even then there was
manipulation going on via the Cheating Metal Exchange,Lousy Bullion Manipulators Association,Algorythm traders etc.
Golds natural course has even been distorted by the IMF,WB ,Central banks and massive hedge funds........that said how
can anyone believe CHARTS with all this manipulative data going in to their make up.Shit in Shit out as the OLD maxim
goes.
Now in the five decades or more that I have been in the market I have never ever seen GOLD and GOLD SHARES or any
COMMODITY AND THEIR shares as LOW and I mean throw away LOW as they are today.
jordan you must rank as the greediest sod on the planet,do you think santa claus will be coming down your chimney any day
now to hand you shares for NOTHING??? ................Gentle folk out there I leave you with this time honoured saying

"NEVER FINE TUNE YOUR BUYING ,NEVER FINE TUNE YOUR SELLING,AS THEY DON'T RING A BELL AT EITHER THE TOP OR THE
BOTTOM OF THE MARKET''
FOR THE greedy feckless jordan I say to him "THE BULLS MAKE MONEY,THE BEARS MAKE MONEY BUT THE PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED"
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Gold has been severely manipulated ever since the shifty eyed crook nixon closed the conversion of devils dollars for GOLD. That GOLD managed to reach $800 in the eighties and $1900 in 2011 is quite remarkable given that even then there was manipulation  Lire la suite
neville - 22/03/2015 à 06:56 GMT
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