If the entire world only produces 880,000,000
ounces of silver per year...and if 75% of that silver is consumed
through the production of cell phones, solar panels and other
items...then how do The Banks manage price off of the remaining
220,000,000 ounces? The answer: Alchemy.
Look, you likely already know how The Bullion
Banks alchemize gold in order to control price. After the failure of the
US to manage price in the 1950s and the failure of The London Gold Pool
in the 1960s, the alchemy of paper/digital "gold" was formalized with
the creation of Comex gold futures in 1975. If you need a refresher,
perhaps you should take a moment and read this:
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8075/42-y...reserve-alchemy
Today, we want to focus upon how The Banks and
The Comex alchemize silver. Like the alchemy of gold, the alchemy of
paper/digital silver is also done to manage and control price. However,
where the gold price is managed in order to prop up and sustain
confidence in the fiat currency system, the alchemy of silver is
primarily done for profit. And which parties profit?
- The Banks which manage, manipulate and control price through the brute force of sheer market domination.
- Manufacturers who use silver as a key input in their products. For examples, check the list found here: target="_blank" http://www.silverusersassociation.org
If someone is profiting in this process, then it follows that someone is also losing. And who are the losers?
- Mining companies, their shareholders and their employees.
- Any and all investors and traders of physical silver.
So, with all that in mind, let's take a look at how The Banks alchemize "silver" for investment demand.
As with just about anything, and as we wrote here target="_blank"(https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8252/e...et-manipulation),
much of this can be explained through the lessons of Econ 101. Where
supply meets demand is where you discover price. If demand outstrips
supply, price is forced to rise. Conversely, if supply increases faster
than demand, prices fall.
Applying this lesson to silver...If industrial
production annually consumes about 3/4 of mine supply, leaving just
220,000,000 ounces per year for investment, then the shifting demand for
that 220,000,000 ounces would largely determine price. In years where
investment demand rose, leading to a shortfall in supply, prices would
rise. In years where investment demand fell, leading to a surplus in
supply, prices would fall.
And now we've come to the crux of the matter.
How do Banks manage price for themselves and the manufacturers when the
supply of actual, physical silver is so incredibly tight? The answer,
again, is alchemy. The Banks create all forms of virtual/paper "silver"
and then convince the investment world that it's a proxy for the real
thing. Whether through the creation of shares in the SLV and other ETFs
or the creation of futures contracts on The Comex, these forms of
digital silver take the place of actual, physical silver and are used to
meet the investment demand that exceeds the supply of real, physical
silver.
For today, let's just focus upon how The Comex
functions in this process. Again, in numbers that are approximations,
the world annually produces about 880,000,000 ounces of physical silver
per year. This leaves only about 220,000,000 ounces to satisfy
investment demand after industrial demands consume up to 660,000,000
ounces per year. How do The Banks on The Comex manage this investment
demand? Through the unfettered creation of paper derivative contracts
which are fed to speculators and traders who seek silver "exposure"
through investment.
Note the chart below and pay particular
attention to the bubbles showing total Comex silver contract open
interest at certain dates since late last year.
This post is not intended to describe again how
price is effected by the daily creation of open interest. Instead, note
the volume of the contract creation since the first of the year.
In the lower left, note that total Comex silver
open interest was 163,812 contracts on January 3, 2017. At 5,000 ounces
per contract, this represents a total of Comex obligation of 819,060,000
ounces of digital silver. Compare that to the CME Silver Stocks report
of that same date. Note that the total Comex vault supply of silver was
181,903,038 ounces with 28,050,481 ounces listed as "registered".
Now take a look at the upper left of that chart
back up above. Do you see that, as of last Friday, total Comex silver
open interest had grown to a new ALLTIME high of 234,558 contracts?
Let's do the math, shall we? Again, with each
Comex contract representing an eventual obligation to take or make
delivery of 5,000 ounces of silver, 234,558 contracts equates to a total
digital supply of 1,172,790,000 ounces of "silver".
Deciphering how much virtual/paper/digital
silver has been created thus far in 2017 in order to meet investment
demand is pretty simple:
Friday, April 21 paper supply: 1,172,790,000 ounces
Tuesday, January 3 paper supply: 819,060,000 ounces
DIFFERENCE: 353,730,000 ounces
So, how is it that price is only up 12%
year-to-date? Supply and demand. But not supply of simply physical
metal. Instead, this is about the supply of digital metal or "exposure"
and how this bank-created product is foisted upon the masses as a
substitute for the real thing.
How do The Banks and Silver Users solve the
problem of supply and demand? Well, if the world only has 225,000,000
ounces of silver each year available for investment demand, then you
simply create virtual/paper/digital silver in enough supply to soak up
the excess demand. And so far this year, The Banks have created over
350,000,000 ounces for this purpose.
Oh, and in case you're wondering, has the amount
of silver held on deposit at The Comex grown over this same time
period? I mean, to be fair, you would think that it should, right? Well
see below. Note that as of last Friday, the same date as the latest open
interest alltime high, total silver in the Comex vaults was still just
195,505,395 ounces of which 30,532,200 was listed as registered.
We've often described The Comex Pricing Scheme
as a fraud and a scam and you can once again see why in the data above.
While total, potential delivery obligations have grown by 353,730,000
ounces, total silver in the vaults has grown by just 13,602,357 ounces.
That's leverage of 26:1. But,
obviously, not ALL of the Comex silver is for sale. If we look at just
the supply of "registered" silver, we see that it has only grown by
2,481,719 ounces over the same time period.
The leverage of this silver versus total open interest is 142:1.
Anyway, we'll write about that again some other day. In the meantime, what is the point/objective of this post?
Simply...You need to realize and understand how
this works. The price of physical silver is determined NOT through the
trading of actual silver. Instead, paper derivative contracts that act
as proxies or substitutes for physical silver make up the vast majority
of the transactions and, as long as the investment world continues to
accept these worthless paper obligations and the scheme through which
the price is discovered, the fraud will continue.
All parties interested in fair pricing MUST reject The Bankers and their scheme:
- Investors must demand physical metal. NOT paper derivatives, NOT unallocated accounts and NOT shares of ETFs.
- Mining companies must demand delivery into a physical exchange for
their product and move their business away from the hyper-leveraged
paper exchanges.
- Traders must recognize that The Banks are using their ignorance
against them. Every trader that believes in "free and fair markets" in
nothing but the proverbial fool who is soon to be separated from his
cash.
Only when the world demands physical delivery
for their silver investments will The Bankers' schemes finally fail.
Only then will true and fair price discovery finally be made.
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Our Ask The Expert interviewer Craig Hemke began his career in financial services in 1990 but retired in 2008 to focus on family and entrepreneurial opportunities. Since 2010, he has been the editor and publisher of the TF Metals Report found target="_blank" at TFMetalsReport.com, an online community for precious metal investors.
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The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.
