In response to Just How Distorted is the U.S. Unemployment Rate Number?, reader Bjorn asked "care to take a guess on the percentage of fraud among the population receiving disability compensation?"
Fraud Incentive
My Reply Follows:
I suspect fraud is in the neighborhood of 25-50% (and higher would not surprise me one bit). The reason is that States Have an Incentive to Promote (Not Stop) Disability Fraud.
This all goes back to 1996 when president Bill Clinton promised to "end welfare as we know it". He did indeed do just that, and fraud is the result.
Why?
The federal government pays disability, but states pay part of welfare costs. This creates a huge incentives for states to actively promote disability fraud (simply to get people off state-sponsored welfare programs).
Fraud escalated dramatically in the wake of the housing crash as jobs became scarce.
I discussed this previously in Unwilling to Work; 25% in Hale County AL Collect Disability, 14 Million Nationwide; A Simple Solution
Here is the key snip.
Clinton Ends Welfare As We Know It
In 1996 Bill Clinton signed a welfare reform act, that he proclaimed to
be the "End of Welfare As We Know It". It was. People moved off welfare
on to even easier to get disability programs.
Part of Clinton's welfare reform plan pushed states to get people on
welfare into jobs, partly by making states pay a much larger share of
welfare costs.
The incentive "worked" using the term loosely. Welfare rolls shrank but disability rolls soared.
Welfare Costs States Money Disability Doesn't
[From the NPR report "Unfit For Work" - Please read this snip. It's key to understanding the fraud promotion claim]
A person on welfare costs a state money. That same resident on
disability doesn't cost the state a cent, because the federal government
covers the entire bill for people on disability. So states can save
money by shifting people from welfare to disability. And the Public
Consulting Group is glad to help.
PCG is a private company that states pay to comb their welfare rolls and
move as many people as possible onto disability. "What we're offering
is to work to identify those folks who have the highest likelihood of
meeting disability criteria," Pat Coakley, who runs PCG's Social
Security Advocacy Management team, told me.
The company has an office in eastern Washington state that's basically a
call center, full of headsetted women in cubicles who make calls all
day long to potentially disabled Americans, trying to help them discover
and document their disabilities:
"The high blood pressure, how long have you been taking medications for
that?" one PCG employee asked over the phone the day I visited the
company. "Can you think of anything else that's been bothering you and
disabling you and preventing you from working?"
The PCG agents help the potentially disabled fill out the Social
Security disability application over the phone. And by help, I mean the
agents actually do the filling out.
There's a reason PCG goes to all this trouble. The company gets paid by
the state every time it moves someone off of welfare and onto
disability. In recent contract negotiations with Missouri, PCG asked for
$2,300 per person. For Missouri, that's a deal -- every time someone
goes on disability, it means Missouri no longer has to send them cash
payments every month. For the nation as a whole, it means one more
person added to the disability rolls.
Disability Fraud
Who is making the case for the other side? Who is defending the government's decision to deny disability?
Nobody.
And that in a nutshell explains soaring disability roles and massive fraud.
When Jobs Are Plentiful
When jobs are plentiful, most people would prefer to work. But, when jobs are scarce, and welfare pays more than a minimum wage job, many would prefer not to work.
I wrote about this aspect on August 20 in
Why Work for $7.25 When Welfare Pays $15.00 in 12 States and $8.00 in 33 States? Is a Low Minimum Wage the Problem?
When states come in and actively promote fraud as a means to get people off welfare, guess what happens?
Disability fraud is the answer.
Thank Bill Clinton!
Key Stats
Here are some stats from "
Unfit for Work"
- Every month 14 million Americans receive a disability check.
- In 1961 the leading cause of disability was heart disease and strokes, totaling 25.7% of cases. Back pain was 8.3% of cases.
- In 2011 the leading cause of disability was a hard to disprove back
pain, totaling 33.8% of cases. The second leading cause was an equally
difficult to disprove "mental illness" at 19.2%. Strokes and heart
disease fell to 10.6%.
- In Hale County Alabama 1 in 4 receive disability checks.
- One thing nearly every case in Hale County Alabama has in common is
Dr. Perry Timberlake who defines disability in a rather creative way.
- Once people go onto disability, they almost never go back to work.
Fewer than 1 percent of those who were on the federal program for
disabled workers at the beginning of 2011 have returned to the
workforce.
Quantifying the Fraud
Fraud varies state by state with welfare benefits and by how aggressive states are in pushing people off of welfare on to disability programs.
Given the incentive of states to push people into disability programs, and for people to never leave disability once in the program, a reasonable person would expect fraud to be rampant.
I guess 25-50% of disability claims are fraudulent, but higher would not surprise me in the least given back pain has soared from 8.3% to 33.8% and "mental illness" is at 19.2%. Combined that is whopping 53% of disability claims!
Unemployment Numbers
Inquiring minds are asking "
how does this affect unemployment numbers?"
That's a good question, so let's crunch some numbers.
With 14 million collecting disability benefits ...
- 25% Fraud would add 3.5 million to the Labor Force
- 33% Fraud would add 4.7 million to the Labor Force
- 50% Fraud would add 7.0 million to the Labor Force
Let's assume 25% fraud, a rather modest assumption given the incentives for states to promote fraud coupled with the fact that a whopping 53% of disability claims are for suspicious reasons.
The examples below assume use of my practical definition of unemployment:
Those who want a job, but do not have one. I also assume those fraudulently collecting disability payments would want a job if the payments stopped.
Base Numbers (from the latest jobs report - see
BLS in Wonderland)
- Civilian Labor Force: 155,486
- Unemployed: 11,316,000
To the base numbers we need to add those not in the labor force but want a job.
That number is 6,285,000 (for a chart and further details, see
Just How Distorted is the U.S. Unemployment Rate Number?)
Calculation Assuming 25% Fraud
Labor Force: 155,486,000 + 6,285,000 + 3,500,000 = 165,271,000
Unemployed: 11,316,000 + 6,285,000 + 3,500,000 = 21,101,000
Unemployment Rate: 21,101,000 / 165,271,000 = 12.77%
Calculation Assuming 33% Fraud
Labor Force: 155,486,000 + 6,285,000 + 4,700,000 = 166,471,000
Unemployed: 11,316,000 + 6,285,000 + 4,700,000 = 22,301,000
Unemployment Rate: 22,301,000 / 166,471,000 = 13.40%
Calculation Assuming 50% Fraud
Labor Force: 155,486,000 + 6,285,000 + 7,000,000 = 168,771,000
Unemployed: 11,316,000 + 6,285,000 + 7,000,000 = 24,601,000
Unemployment Rate: 24,601,000 / 168,771,000 = 14.58%
That is the disability fraud angle. It does not include those fraudulently receiving standard welfare (nor does it include those working part-time but want a full-time job).
The welfare fraud calculation is complicated by the fact that many on welfare work. Nonetheless, it's reasonably safe to add another 0.5% to 1.0% to account for welfare fraud (for those not yet pushed into disability fraud).
Comparison to BLS
Using my practical definition of unemployment, and factoring in disability fraud (but not welfare fraud), a realistic unemployment rate ranges from 12.77% to 14.58%.
For comparison purposes, the BLS has a base unemployment rate of 7.3% and a U-5 Rate of 8.7% (supposedly counting those who want a job but did not look).
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
