With the last major news item for 2013 less than 48 hours away, I thought
I would share some insights as to what the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) options
were pricing into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement due out
Wednesday.
After the news is released and the week ends, it will be time for Santa Claus
to come to Wall Street. While most people believe in the Santa Claus rally,
what few understand is the bullish undertones that traditionally accompany
a triple witching event.
This coming Friday, is a triple expiration. Equity options, index options,
and futures contracts will be expiring this Friday. This event is traditionally
known as "triple witching" and historically the quarterly expiration event
ushers in serious bullishness.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, "In the 31 years since the creation
of equity index futures, the S&P500 has risen 74% of the time during this
week. More recently, it has risen in ten of the past 12 years." The chart shown
below was posted on www.zerohedge.com and
was provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The chart above clearly demonstrates that the December triple witching event
is statistically relevant for higher prices. What many call the "Santa Claus
Rally" may have more to do with triple witching than whether Wall Street was
naughty or nice.
The data above would demonstrate that unless the Federal Reserve either shocks
the market or initiates a tapering of their quantitative easing program, we
are likely to see some strong bullish price action in stocks going into the
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While it can be argued as to whether or not a tapering has been fully priced
in, what is of keen interest to me is whether SPX option analysis confirms
a bullish disposition for future price action.
I want to be clear, that as an option trader I am constantly looking at probabilities
for trade selection. I use a variety of credit spreads to take advantage of
higher than normal implied volatility and use the passage of time as an additional
profit engine. Additionally I use probabilities to help me select the option
strikes that I am going to utilize for trade structures.
Based on the closing prices in the December Monthly (Exp. 12/20/13) S&P
500 Cash Index (SPX) on Monday December 16, 2013 the marketplace is pricing
in a fairly tight short-term range. This is to be expected when time to expiration
(in this case 4 days) is fairly short in duration. However, when we look at
the standard deviation analysis from Monday's close an interesting narrative
is born.
The 1 standard deviation (68% probability) price range in SPX based on Monday's
close is around 1,770 - 1,800. The SPX option market is pricing in that there
is a 68% chance that by the close Friday the SPX price will be in that range.
However, the 2 standard deviation (90% Probability) price range tells a considerably
different story.
The December Monthly SPX options show a 2 standard deviation range between
1,730 - 1,825. There is a 90% probability that at Friday's close price will
be in that range. However, when we look closer something interesting is revealed.
The Monday closing price for the SPX was 1,786.50. I would simply point out
that the SPX options marketplace is saying that the risk of a larger move to
the downside is more likely. Note that the 2 standard deviation upside price
level is roughly 40 points higher than Monday's closing price.
The 2 standard deviation downside range is more than 55 points lower. The
marketplace is clearly pricing in that should a price shock take place, it
will be much more devastating if prices move lower on the Federal Reserve's
statement. The price range is shown below on the SPX daily chart.
The fact that the option market is clearly favoring more downside potential
does not mean that the marketplace's reaction will force prices lower. The
extra risk premium to the downside exists because the marketplace believes
that there is more downside risk potential.
Unfortunately the SPX December monthly option chain cannot tell us much more
at this point in time about future price action. However, some analysis provided
by Bank of America Merrill Lynch solidifies my expectations that in the immediate
short-term more downside is likely. However, a major bottom is likely to form
which coincides with the December triple witching event. The chart below is
courtesy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The chart above demonstrates that the target range is somewhere between 1,745
and 1,775. In overnight futures trading on Sunday evening prices fell sharply,
but Monday's action caused prices to regain their footing. The recent lows
in the SPX just barely made it into the range highlighted above. My guess is
that one more pullback may occur before we see prices start moving higher due
to triple witching and seasonality.
However, what is most important for readers to understand is that the risk
should the Federal Reserve surprise the marketplace with a more hawkish action
could be quite bearish in nature. A tapering announcement or a larger than
anticipated tapering could cause the S&P 500 Index to react violently to
the downside.
I will be the first to admit I have no idea what is going to happen, but I
think hedging longs or taking some profits where available makes sense ahead
of the Federal Reserve's statement. While higher prices are more obvious based
on seasonality and the binary triple witching event, a downside move could
catch market participants off guard and strong short-term selling could result.
Short-term risk is high!
Happy Trading!
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