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Professional stock market traders
manage risk very closely. In fact, stop loss levels tend to be set almost
directly below entry points, meaning they are comfortable owning a position
for a few minutes or a few days. If the trade does not work, they get out.
Traders look at risk-reward ratios on much shorter time frames than investors.
A good trading opportunity is not necessarily a good opportunity for
investment.
We believe the current rally is being
driven by traders, which is fine. Traders who "played" the current
rally will be more than happy to sell at the first sign of trouble, which
could come from this week's ISM report, Friday's employment report, or from
across the pond. Given the points that follow, do you really believe the
current rally in stocks is sustainable?
- The
problems in Europe are very serious and have not been addressed in a
meaningful way.
- The
debt debate in the United States will come back into the news cycle soon
- The
U.S. economy is stalling and the economic numbers have not shown signs
of improving.
- Estimates
for corporate profits may need to come down significantly in the next
few months.
- Rather
than helping stimulate growth, China is trying to tame inflation via
tighter monetary conditions.
- Global
stimulus spending helped fuel economic activity in Brazil, Russia, India,
and China - there will be no repeat performance to assist the global
economy this time. The United States will be cutting spending, not
increasing it.
- Housing
prices in the U.S. could fall another 10-25%, according to Robert Shiller, the economist who co-founded the
S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home
prices. Imagine the impact on banks and financial markets - scary.
- Investors
have lost faith in global policymakers.
- More
importantly, investors have lost faith in the Fed's ability to ride to
the rescue. If they launch another round of money printing (QE3), it
will have a much more muted impact on asset prices; it may even have
a negative impact using the "are things this bad?" rationale.
- Numerous
long-term bearish signals have materialized in recent weeks.
Countertrend rallies are common and help keep wary investors in weak
markets.
We believe the psyche of investors is
on the verge of reaching a tipping point, which could cause a very rapid
decline in asset prices. It is next to impossible to know if and when they
will reach for the sell button in unison, but the risk for such an event is
elevated and must be considered in all portfolio management decisions. Stocks
dropped 34% in twelve trading sessions in 1987. High volatility occurred
before that drop, indicating an increased willingness to run for the exits.
If you have not noticed, the markets have been volatile recently. An
"Oh, my God" type event is difficult to predict, but the conditions
are in place to make for an interesting next few months.
While the chart below is busy, the
basic takeaway is simple; the S&P 500 faces hurdles between 1,219 and
1,270. Let's assume traders take the market back to 1,270 - that represents a
4% gain from the August 31 close of 1,219. If stocks go on to make a lower
low later this year, the next logical retracement level comes in at 1,020,
which is a 16% drop from the August 31 market close. The blue lines, marked
A, are parallel trendlines from recent highs.
Points B and C show logical retracement levels monitored by traders. Point D
is the neckline from the topping pattern known as a head-and-shoulders
formation. As we mentioned on August 12, a rally back to the neckline is not
uncommon.
Unless something improves somewhere
in a better than expected manner, we are inclined to use the current
trader-induced rally to review bear-market friendly assets, such as bonds
(TIP, PCY, TLT, IEF) and stock market hedges (SH). We are also keeping an eye
on Fed-Friendly agriculture (DBA). We need to see a better entry point for
bonds and agriculture. Stock market hedges are looking more attractive the
higher the current rally goes. The chart of the S&P 500 below shows the
blue trendlines labeled A in the chart above,
allowing for a less cluttered review.
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are very
crowded trades at this point, which elevate the odds of significant downside
in the short-to-intermediate term. We would prefer to re-enter those markets
after some corrective or sideways price action. Agriculture may be a good
precious metals alternative, but a pullback might be needed first. The chart
of the S&P 500 below adds back another form of resistance.
Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco
Capital
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