Treasury Yields Rise Following .2% Rise in Retail Sales; Fed Tapering Begins in September?

The Census Bureau reports retail sales rose for a fourth consecutive month, up 0.2% in July. Retail sales missed economist expectations of a 0.3% rise, but June month was revised up.

Retail Sales vs. Previous Months



July 2013 Retail Sales vs. July 2012



I am not sure how much longer auto sales will lead retail sales, but sooner or later, a huge plunge is in store.

With mortgage rates generally tied to the 10-year treasury yield, housing is already under pressure from the rise in treasury yields.

Treasury Yields

Overall, retail sales were strong enough to push treasury yields back towards the July high.

The next three charts show treasury yields multiplied by 10. Shift the decimal point one digit to the left for an accurate read.

$TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield



$TYX 30-Year Treasury Yield



$FVX 5-Year Treasury Yield



Historical Perspective

Curve Watchers Analysis captured the following chart this morning.



click on chart for sharper image

• $TYX: 30-Year Treasury Yield - Green
• $TNX: 10-Year Treasury Yield - Orange
• $FVX: 05-Year Treasury Yield - Blue
• $IRX: 03-Mnth Treasury Yield - Brown