1. Personal Note
As you surely have realized I
did not publish any analysis in english for more than one year.... I am sorry
for this but I experienced some big personal changes in my life as I got
married last summer... After that I had to focus on my priorities and
investing a lot of time and energy to write my free bi-weekly newsletter in
english was obviously not one of them.
The good news is that I now
decided to come up with a short update in english as often as I can or when I
feel the market might do an important move.
Besides that you can follow my
bi-weekly Gold & Silver edition in german here: http://www.proaurum.de/home/infos/chartanalyse.html
2. Update
Negative:
- Candlestick
topping pattern (shooting star after a strong uptrend) on the gold &
silver chart. A Shooting Star sends a warning that the top is near. It
got its name by looking like a shooting star. This pattern usually
presents itself as a sign of a short term correction rather than a more
potent reversal signal.
- Oil (-10%) &
CRB (-7%) already heavily down
- Wheat
sideways since end of July
- Corn down
13% since highs in mid of August
- Platinum
& Palladium both already corrected back to the middle Bollinger Band
- VIX at
record lows. Shows extreme complacency in the stock market
- Solution
& settlement in South Africa brings 22% salary increase & end of
strikes
- COT
structure very very bearish (especially silver). Commercials own biggest
short position in the last 12 months.
- October
often sees a wave of profit taking in precious metals
- EUR/US$
situation still unclear. Either a new uptrend for the Euro has started
and we are seeing the first correction after an impressive rally. Or
this was just a relief rally and the US-Dollar will mark new highs in
the coming months. I tend to believe we are in a new uptrend for the
Euro but markets will tell. Anyway, we are now in a correction of latest
rally that could retrace 50.00-61.80%. US-Dollar strength is generally
bad for stock markets, commodities and precious metals.
Positive:
- RSI still
embedded in gold & silver
- RSI still
embedded in USD
- Monthly
Bollinger Band offers more room to the upside. Currently US$1,843.50
- New uptrend
in precious metals that should carry gold up to US$1,880.00-1,920.00
until end of the year or spring 2013.
- Seasonality
until spring very promising.
- Never fight
the FED. Unlimited QE -> money printing all over the world will push
prices in all sectors higher...
Action to take:
- Hold any
physical position through this expected setback
- Hold any
paper position with leverage smaller than 3 through this expected
setback. Gold will move to US$1,900.00 within the next couple of months!
- Tighten stop
loss of any paper gold/silver position with leverage bigger than 3.
Immediate and important support is US$1,755.00. If it breaks correction
is confirmed.
- For very
speculative experienced and short term traders: short gold into any
strength towards US$1,780.50 on monday. Stop loss has to be around
US$1,787.50. Hold short position during correction down to US$1,720.00 -
1,715.00. I expect at least a test of the middle Bollinger Band in the
daily chart.
Long term:
- Nothing has
changed
- Precious
Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the
final parabolic phase (could start in 2013 & last for 2-3 years or
maybe later)
- Price target
Dow Jones/Gold Ratio ca. 1:1
- Price target
Gold/Silver Ratio ca. 10:1
