Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - The Oddest Thing

My net asset value premium indicator shows that gold is commanding a higher premium over NAV as compared to silver, for the first time that I can ever recall.

I do not remember seeing the premium on gold higher than the premium on silver, as shown in the Sprott precious metal funds. Ever. At least not while the funds are not in the midst of implementing a shelf offering.

When I saw the results my jaw dropped. I have checked and rechecked them. And my own estimates of their NAV track perfectly with their indicative intraday indicators, so I am fairly sure there is not an error in the fund calculations.

And as confirmation, the premium of the Central Gold Trust is higher than the premium of the Central Fund of Canada, which is a mix of silver and gold. That is strange.

Something is a bit odd in this market.

Last week someone notified me of some unusual trading patterns in the gold funds. I have been keeping an eye on them, but never expected this.

Silver has a much higher beta than gold. If this continues, if the gold premium continues to exceed silver, it would suggest a clear signal that at least some market participants are pricing in an unusual financial event.

What that might be, I cannot say. I do not even know if it is positive or negative for the precious metals market or their related markets, except to speculate.

On one hand it could represent some manipulative action in the silver market, some unusual effort to cap its tendency to rally.

On another hand it might be a precursor to a dramatic market decline in equities, with a safe haven move into gold ahead of time.

And it could also merely be particular buying pressure from official sources in gold that has not yet spilled over into the silver market.

Take your pick. They are all equally defensible at this point, until we obtain more data.

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