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Malgré mon
emploi du temps toujours démentiel, je ne pouvais pas laisser passer
celle là: la crise de financement des états par le
déficit arrive plus vite que prévu, semble-t-il. Même
l'Allemagne et la Grande-Bretagne semblent touchées par des
difficultés à emprunter. Extrait du "Financial Times":
"Concerns
mount on ability to fund rising state debt
Fears are rising
over the ability of governments to raise the vast amounts of debt they need
to pay for economic stimulus packages and bank bail-outs.
Faced with the
prospect of governments issuing a total of more than €2,000bn
(£1,650bn) of bonds in the next year, bankers are warning of potential
problems in meeting funding needs.
Roger Brown, global
head of rates research at UBS, said: "Governments are already running into problems, which
does not bode well so early after the recapitalisations and extra funding
needs have been announced.
"We do have to
ask whether there will be enough investors to buy the bonds, or at the very
least over whether this will push yields substantially higher to attract
them. Given the volumes involved investors may decide to wait and see if
yields rise."
The rush of bond
issues comes against a background of record low yields in some countries
because of recession and fears of deflation. Last week, 10-year bonds in both
the US and the UK fell to 50-year lows.
However, faced with
contracting economies, lower tax receipts, and rising benefit payments, countries
could face higher debt-servicing costs as overall debt levels rise.
The
UK and Italy may face the greatest difficulties. The UK is expected to issue
£10bn of bonds this month. In the past, monthly volumes have averaged
about £2bn a month. The government is
also expected to issue £60bn in the remainder of the financial year to
the end of March - more than it would previously issue in an entire year.
In Italy, bond
issuance could rise to €220bn next year, with €100bn in
redemptions in the first half of the year - about €20bn higher than
usual - putting the government under even more pressure to raise money.
Even in the US and
Germany, which have the most liquid bond markets in the world, there have
been some warning signs. In
Germany, a bond auction failed last month, something
virtually unheard of until this year, while in the US some analysts say
yields could start to rise because of about $1,000bn (£650bn) in bonds
in the pipeline next year.
It is significant
that problems have
emerged in auctions for shorter-dated securities, which are usually the
easiest to sell. Last week, the UK and Italy were forced to
pay higher yields to attract investors in bond auctions for four and
three-year paper, respectively, compared with similar existing debt."
Pas besoin de
faire un dessin: Si même l'Allemagne a du mal à fourguer des
bons de terme plus court que ceux habituellement vendus aux enchères
(inversées), il y aura dès 2009 des banqueroutes d'états
incapables de se refinancer. Reste à parier sur lesquels ?
Vincent
Bénard
Objectif Liberte.fr
Egalement par Vincent Bénard
Vincent Bénard, ingénieur
et auteur, est Président de l’institut Hayek (Bruxelles, www.fahayek.org) et Senior Fellow de Turgot (Paris, www.turgot.org), deux thinks tanks francophones
dédiés à la diffusion de la pensée
libérale. Spécialiste d'aménagement du territoire, Il
est l'auteur d'une analyse iconoclaste des politiques du logement en France, "Logement,
crise publique, remèdes privés", ouvrage publié
fin 2007 et qui conserve toute son acuité (amazon), où il
montre que non seulement l'état déverse des milliards sur le
logement en pure perte, mais que de mauvais choix publics sont directement
à l'origine de la crise. Au pays de l'état tout puissant, il
ose proposer des remèdes fondés sur les mécanismes de
marché pour y remédier.
Il est l'auteur du blog "Objectif
Liberté" www.objectifliberte.fr
Publications :
"Logement: crise publique,
remèdes privés", dec 2007, Editions Romillat
Avec Pierre de la Coste : "Hyper-république,
bâtir l'administration en réseau autour du citoyen", 2003, La
doc française, avec Pierre de la Coste
Publié avec
l’aimable autorisation de Vincent Bénard – Tous droits
réservés par Vincent Bénard.
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