|
The
SP 500 has rallied to a post June 4th high of 1409 this week, about 13 points
shy of the Bull Market cycle highs of 1422 earlier this year.
The
rally has overlapped along the way, forming a series of
“3′s” which are sometimes found in impulsive bullish moves,
but usually found at the end of bull cycles whether they be short term or
long term cycles.
To
wit, the first 11 trading days off the 1267 SP 500 lows saw a 97 point rally,
again in only 11 trading days.
The
last 34 trading days we have only been able to move up about 44 further
points, indicating the rally is getting long in the tooth and a bit tired at
that.
So
11 days, 97 points… 34 more days, only 44 further points.
Another
10 trading days would mark a 55 fibonacci trading
day cycle, so we should be alert to potential rally highs between August 13th
and August 22nd as a window for a top.
A
few days ago I discussed we may see a continual sloppy drift up to 1425-1445
ranges, with 1434 a key pivot line to watch.
Although
the count doesnt really fit for me, if this rally
from the June lows is a 5th and final wave up… then a 5th wave rally to
complete a larger cycle often is characterized by a series of 3′s.
To
summarize:
The
first leg of the rally was a 3 wave rally to 1363, about 97 points in 11
days. We have continued with overlapping 3′s. This final stage of the
rally is likely going to be 5 waves or ABCDE in nature to complete the entire
cycle up from 1267
That
cycle high should come within the Aug 13th-22nd window and in the 1425-1445
ranges.
David Banister
The Market Trend Forecast
If you’d like to receive free weekly reports,
please check at www.markettrendforecast.com
|
