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In last
December’s “2012
EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events.
Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly
when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought
pieces. I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry;
so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer…
I mean,
who knows what will happen? There are simply too many moving parts to gauge,
as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile,
unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world –
increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking
incomprehensible damage by accident. Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature
– who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown
of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become
comical at best.
Nearly all
“2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple
extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all
human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries
investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the
near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.
Given
these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention
– both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions
– “pulled out of my arse,” as
some might say. Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to
continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months. Forgive me if I too,
fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”
That said,
I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality
– by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…
- The European debt crisis will
dramatically deteriorate
- The U.S. Economy will weaken
- “Global QE” will
become increasingly OVERT
- Gold will rise for the 12th
straight year
- Gold will not remain below
its 200 DMA for long
- The gold/silver ratio will
decline
- Market volatility will
EXPLODE
- Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
- The 2012 U.S. elections will
break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and
SURPRISES
- Most investments will be
deadly
Frankly,
the ONLY thing I did not gauge correctly was the extent TPTB would
intervene to prevent the inevitable from occurring. That is why I was
incorrect about points #7 and #10 – while being DEAD ON about the other
eight.
Going into
2013, the aforementioned inevitability appears FAR MORE acute than a
year ago. That is, Currency
Collapse, Hyperinflation & Social Unrest are GUARANTEED to spread
through the Western world; with the only question being when.
Will it be
2013, or will TPTB survive another – likely traumatic –
year or two before the END GAME expresses itself in 2014 or 2015? Frankly, I
have no idea; although the list of potential “swans”
– black, white, or otherwise – grows longer
each day. Thus, I have decided to “go with my gut” on forecasting
2013; that is, to utilize the ultimate in extrapolation bias –
by giving the EXACT same forecast as a year ago!
Sorry to
disappoint those hoping I’d predict WAR – or PEACE, for that
matter – as I haven’t a clue what will ultimately occur. However,
I have learned well that “the trend is my friend;” and given what
I view as a dramatic deterioration in global political, economic,
and social trends over the past 12 months, “the trend”
should only GAIN momentum in 2013.
Frankly,
the only real question I have is whether TPTB will still have the
ability to disprove points #7 and #10; as only massive MONEY PRINTING,
MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA can prevent market volatility and
significant asset losses. And I’m not talking the “2012
level” of such intervention; but a new, “amped-up 2013
level” that puts 2012 to shame.
Can they
do so without DESTROYING confidence – and with it, countless fiat
currencies? I don’t know, and I’m TERRIFIED to find out.
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