October Open Forum

With 500 comments on the last one, a new month, a new season and a new Snapshot day upon us, I thought it was time for a fresh thread.

A few people have asked me about Snapshot day. Was it yesterday, at €984, or today, at €953? I should say that I don't put much stock in the middle quarters because they often show volatility that is not present when you only look at the major quarters. That said, Snapshot day is, in fact, this Friday, Oct. 4th. And MTM Party day is next Wednesday, Oct. 9th.

I'll show you what I mean about volatility when including every quarter. The first chart is only the annual snapshots since 2004, except for the last one on the chart which was mid-year at June 28, 2013. Aside from 2013 so far, it is a nice smooth trendline:


This second one is all of the mid-year and year-end snapshots only:


And this third chart includes every single quarterly snapshot since the end of 2001. Notice how bumpy it can be on shorter time frames:


Here's the data for all of the quarterly snapshots since Q4 2001:


As I write this, euro gold is at €951.66. Yesterday it was as high as €989. In fact, there was a €30 swing between the AM and PM fixes today. That's some volatility!

So what's your guess? What do you think will be this quarter's snapshot to be revealed on Oct. 9? Will it be over or under €919.92? Obviously the odds favor over, but as it stands right now we are only €31.74 away from the June low, and it dropped by that much today alone! Anyone brave enough to guess under?

This is, of course, just for fun, because I don't assign much significance to a 3rd quarter snapshot either way. But I am curious to see your guesses! :D

Sincerely,
FOFOA


And since Depeche Mode is currently touring the U.S., here's an appropriate tune that I enjoy:

It's Just a Question of Time!