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Welcome to the Currency War, Part 9: What's Wrong With These Picture - John Rubino - Dollar Collapse

There are a few things Mr. Rubino has failed to grasp. Concerning the S&P 500 rising, it makes perfect sense when one remembers that capital does not respect national borders. Money is flowing into the American equity markets not only from the cheap cost of money in America, but from Euro users concerned about the safety of leaving their money in the bank and from Japanese investors who well understand that the yen has depreciated some 30% in the last 8 months. As well, Mr. Rubino has totally missed what might be thought of as the law of unintended consequences that Abenomics will bring about. That would be that borrowing costs for the Japanese government are certain to soar. With the yen depreciating as it is, no one with a still functioning prefrontal cortex will invest in Japanese government bonds offering next to nothing in interest. Yes, they could try to get around that problem by issuing bonds denominated in American dollars, but then they would have to pay back the investors with even more expensive American dollars....As for America trying to follow Abe's example, there is a very good reason why they cannot. There is a fundamental difference between the 2 bond markets. Virtually all Japanese government debt is owned by Japanese citizens and so payments made on it stay in Japan (at least initially). With America, some 40% of its national debt is held by foreigners and so a good sized portion of the interest payments head overseas immediately.

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Début de l'article :Japan's currency devaluation has worked beautifully. The yen is plunging, Japanese stocks are soaring, and the current account surplus -- the main measure of a country's ability to trade effectively -- is way up: Japan Current-Account Surplus Climbs as Abenomics Sinks Yen Japan's current-account surplus rose in March to the highest level in a year as a depreciating yen boosted repatriated earnings and brightened the outlook for the nation's exports. The ex... Lire la suite

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