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overtheedge
Membre depuis mai 2012
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Give It A Doubt - Richard Mills - Ahead of the Herd

"Manufacturing has been hit hard by the $85 billion in across the board spending cuts – the ‘fiscal cliff’ that started in March. "

I'll give the above statement a doubt alright. Correlation is not evidence of causation. What were the manufacturers making and selling to the government that the sequestration cut off purchasing of? How many government employees got laid-off because of sequestration? Sure military spending dropped, but how much had a direct effect on manufacturing across the board? Did sequestration have some effect? Sure, but the above statement was disingenuous and appears more politically motivated against sequestration. The evidence is clear; the velocity of money had already slowed before sequestration took effect. This manufacturing slow-down was inevitable and will probably get worse, perhaps far worse.

How about no boom, no bust but rather just muddling along. Probably can't get better until the economic mess gets cleaned up. Mal-investments must be liquidated and the fools that made those mal-investments must take the economic hit. Failure is not an option, it is mandatory.

Example: If the Fed were held to the same liquidity standards like WaMu was, it would be broken up. Come on, mark to model (fantasy football) rather than mark to market (NFL)? It is the same over-valued crappy collateral whether it is on the books of BoA or the Fed.

All sequestration did was prove the utter incompetence of everyone elected to any and every office in Washington, DC. They can't balance a budget or balance the books.

Food is one commodity that will continue to be consumed buoying up the ag sector. Hygiene items will continue to be manufactured giving a market for those required feedstocks. Energy consumption might fall, but not into the dark. The high-tech industries might find that demand no longer exists and the commodity feedstocks needed will no longer be required.

If the commodity is required for the first tier of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, it will continue to find a market. Always bet on human nature.

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Début de l'article :Many, many years ago during a lengthy argument with a friend he told me to ‘give it a doubt’ – he meant I was wrong. The herd is convinced the commodities boom is over. Doom and gloom, the sky is falling, the bears argument sounds convincing - growth has stopped, economies are slowing. Looking at the TSX.V’s performance (most of the world’s min... Lire la suite

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