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Contrary Gold Futures 3 - Adam Hamilton - Zealllc

What i look at most closely is capital flows. This past week seemed quite instructive with regard the price action in gold that we are likely to experience over the intermediate term. The action on Thursday and Friday illustrate what i mean. On Thursday the US dollar was down sharply. Gold saw a modest gain of $10. On Friday the dollar was up marginally. Gold tanked, losing nearly $30. To me that is saying that gold is not yet ready for the long promised breakout. Indeed, unless we see gold close above $1,450, it remains in danger of another significant drop. And another significant drop may well be what is required before gold is able to get back on the rally tracks....As there seems to be far more danger in both Japan and Europe at the moment, it appears quite unlikely that the US dollar is about to go in the tank. Indeed, money should continue to flow into the US for the foreseeable future and that will make for a very difficult environment for gold to flourish.

As for contrarian investing, while it may have its place, it seems quite dangerous. Back in mid February of 1980, with gold already down some 20% from its high, a contrarian would have backed up the proverbial truck to load up on gold. That individual would have had to wait 26 years just to break even. And it was not because those were great times. US national debt tripled in that time, Japan's economy tanked, with their stock market collapsing from 40,000 to about 1/4 of that value. There was also the Asian currency crisis and Russia (not exactly a mid-tier nation) defaulted. Yet gold was utterly nonresponsive. The lesson being that just because everyone who wanted out had already sold, did not mean that new buyers were ready to step in. Things run in cycles despite the best efforts of the central banks to remove the business cycle and sometimes a given thing has just run its course.....Bottom line: while sentiment can prove instructive, it is far less accurate than following the money when it comes to investing.

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Début de l'article :Futures speculators are extraordinarily bearish on gold today.Their short positions on it are extreme and unprecedented, the highest seen by far in gold's entire dozen-year secular bull.They expect downside gold momentum to persist indefinitely.But despite their reputation for sophistication, futures speculators are notorious for betting wrong at extremes.Their bearishness is a very bullish contrarian omen for gold.Given gold's horrendous 2013 so far, you really can't blame futures speculators f... Lire la suite

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