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overtheedge
Membre depuis mai 2012
680 commentaires - suivi par 6 personnes

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A laissé un commentaire sur l'article :

Solid Payrolls Will Send Gold and Silver to New Lows

- Sam Kirtley - Sk Options Trading

Excellent analysis and completely worthless.
I have used all the bullish arguments you cited. I still do. Are you right? Probably, but in the short term only. (few weeks to few months)

1. All that matters here that that Fed thinks this data is accurate
In order for this statement to be accurate, it MUST be true. But we are 5 years into this mess and the Fed still hasn't solved the economic mess. Assumption being that the Fed has the capacity/capability/willingness to manipulate the markets of the world. You've discounted politics.

2. Gold prices have fallen $500, how many mines have shut down production and cut supply as a result?
Why would they? Most are still making a profit. Not much, but they can pay the bills. Of course the flip-side of your argument is, "How many mines didn't begin production until gold prices were $500 higher than today.

3. The fact that the Fed is still doing its 80bln a month as part of the QE3 announced in September is irrelevant
If you say so? There is a far larger market out there than just gold. So the assumption that QE-whatever is the sole or major driver for gold pricing is irrelevant. Short-term phenomenon versus long-term effects.

4. Maybe the physical gold price in reality is higher than the gold futures price, but it’s not $500 higher, it’s not even $100 higher and frankly we would be surprised if it were more than 5% higher than spot gold.
You haven't been watching the physical market closely. Granted CB buying might be paying a premium of 5%, but 50 million small purchases of 5 grams is 250 metric tonnes. These folks are paying substantially more than 5% premium. But again, I'll grant you that fabrication costs for smaller products cost more per tonne. Premiums are still premiums.

5. Just because something is low does not mean it cannot go lower, just as if something is high that does not mean it cannot go higher.
Correct.

The problem with any analysis such as this is that investor intent is NOT homogeneous. There are short-term, long-term, paper versus physical. And then there is the real wild-card: generational savers.

Coming back to the employment figures, what has been the ratio of revision downward to accurate or revision upward?
"I don't think we are in Kansas anymore, Toto."
Beware of sticking with the same analytical tools when there is a new paradigm in town.

But once again, excellent analysis and no more accurate than mine. Had you tossed in a time element, your argument would have had far more value. But then again, reading goat entrails is subject to interpretation. I just play the long-term percentages with the knowledge that no fiat currency has ever survived in the long-term. I'll leave you with this thought. If the Fed must manipulate the market, the game is rigged. Sooner or later, it will ALWAYS out itself.

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Début de l'article :With US Non-Farm Payrolls coming in at a solid +175k, gold and silver prices are set to take another leg lower as a complete absence of additional quantitative easing removes the need to buy gold as a hedge against further easing of US monetary policy. We therefore see both gold and silver prices taking another large leg lower in coming months, with both precious metals hitting new multi-year lows before too long. Fundamental Drivers The mechanics at play here are not overly complex, with employ... Lire la suite

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