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overtheedge
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"Reinstatement of the Dollar: a Blueprint" (Arthur Laffer, 1980)

- Nathan Lewis - New World Economics

The Spanish conquest of portions of Central and South America is not a valid case.
Although Cortes was doing his conquering thing in the 1520's, the flood of gold and silver didn't come until years later.
You forget that silver was the currency of trade. Gold was for major purchases.
The finest craftsmen of the day were in service to the wealthy and if you wanted to commission a work, you paid a substantial recompense to hire away these top-class craftsmen.
Then there was that not-so minor problem of the "Little Ice Age" that often resulted in large scale famine. Add in a little plague now and then and commodity prices can go nuts.
You forget that the Spanish Armada wasn't built in just a few months.
To build this required lots of skilled shipwrights and a large scale commodity support program.
Lastly, commerce was mostly local. No large scale shipping or just in time deliveries. Advertising was virtually non-existent. If you needed large amounts or specialized commodities, you sent purchasing agents scouring the various fiefdoms, kingdoms and major marketing centers such as Venice.

History is replete with cases of war reparations being spent willy-nilly in support of further conquests. Luxuries are addictive.
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That being said, there will not be any sudden new supplies of gold to be had. No new chemical extraction systems, no gold from sea-water, no, no, no. Scientific speculation is science fiction with the emphasis on FICTION. Ergo, considering the quantity of gold most probably above ground and the world-wide population and see what the numbers tell us. So maybe silver? Even worse due to consumer goods losses. Looks like we are gonna need maybe copper and nickel. Whatever the case, there will be more than a metal to commodity revaluation to contend with. Think weight and content as the new metric of currency. You really think this conversion could happen? The average American can't even grasp the metric system or balancing the family budget.

Or maybe we return to gold-backed currency and start down this same damn road again. Never forget human nature. Sooner or later, nature will always out itself. Luxuries are addictive.

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Début de l'article :Here's something that Arthur Laffer (who was also working closely with Chuck Kadlec at the time) put out in February 1980. Of course, in 1980 the dollar had been declining in value for a decade, and, at the time of this paper, had just had a real crash which brought its value momentarily to $850/oz. Mercantilist "easy money" was a disaster. There was a lot of talk at the time of reinstating a gold standard system, which at the time had been gone only nine years, sinc... Lire la suite

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