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overtheedge
Membre depuis mai 2012
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"China Urbanization Growth Fallacy"; Trouble with Ponzi Schemes; Stopped Clock Syndrome; Wrong vs. E - Mish - Global Economic Analysis

Urbanization occurs because of the efficiency of scale in centralized manufacturing over distributed manufacturing.

Any infrastructure built to accommodate the expanded employee base is an operational expense. It is never a quality investment. Example: Detroit. Lose the auto making jobs and the support infrastructure became almost worthless. Profits are possible and usually probable for those who get in early and sell into the growing market.

You are correct in that the growth is in debt and not in enduring wealth. Without constant financial inputs obtained through borrowing, the infrastructure deteriorates rapidly. Consider the eventual outcome of deferred maintenance.

"A dollar collapse has supposedly been coming every year for over 10 years."
This has been a belief since 1971 (Nixon and gold) and really started catching fire during the Arab oil embargo. See: Howard Ruff.
Some predicted the dollar collapse as far back as 1913.

Consider this as just a journey. Destination is known, but the adventure along the way is the unknown. Unknown defines an adventure otherwise it is just an itinerary. So time-dependent predictions are pretty worthless. Eventuality always happens. Fits and starts are just fits and starts.

Make sure your seats and tray tables are in the upright and locked position. Fasten your seat-belts. Please review the exit locations and emergency procedures. Its gonna be a hard landing. When? It is always too soon.

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Début de l'article :China bulls point to China's plans to move millions from farms to cities as some sort of guarantee that that China's growth will continue. What If? What if such analysis is ass backwards? What if urbanization is the result, not the cause of growth? What if pressures to maintain the symbolism of growth (as opposed to actual growth) do far more harm than good. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets tackles the above questions via email on "The Urbanization Fallacy". What follows is a sy... Lire la suite

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