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overtheedge
Membre depuis mai 2012
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The Mob

- Tim Wood - Cyclesman.com

The seers always brag about their successful auguries. But rarely confess their failures. In those few instances where they will comment, they provide a litany of excuses why the failure occurred.

Perhaps the constant blather about cycles and cycles of cycles sets up a self-reinforcing prediction. Did the cycle clearly and prominently exist before it was identified?

Some of my past jobs required the use of statistics. I learned that statistics don't and can't prove anything. They only provide a measurement of probabilities.
But probability is NOT proof. It is not evidence. It is the reading of goat entrails by the so-called and self-appointed seers. Only the "official" seers can tell that a 4 year cycle has morphed into an extended 4 year cycle. Either 4 is 4 or I'm confused. The Fibonacci sequence is a fixed sequence and there is NO variability. The Golden ratio to 5 places is 1.6180339... (okay, I gave you a few more) and it is not some range from 1.37 - 1.93 unless it is Thursday in which case it might be 2.5 or a sack of turnips.

Mayhaps the herd eagerly follows the seers into economic perdition. I will support your argument that; to paraphrase Nietzsche, "Individuals are rarely insane, but it is the rule for people in groups". Herd mentality is the general rule. The public rushes to follow the false-prophets who labor so diligently over their charts like the seers of old spreading out goat entrails for more accurate divination.

Please understand, I do like charts. If you don't know where you came from, you can't begin to determine where you are.
But predictions are right or they are wrong. And every prediction requires a date-time group aka when. Never some amorphous "within the next 3-6 weeks, months or years".

Extended 4 year cycles? Where did I put that "Preparation H"?

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Début de l'article :It seems to be human nature to hear what one wants to hear and most advisors, so-called "analysts", newsletter writers and commentators seem to feed people the popular line. Why? Because they are people, too and they are also influenced by popular opinion, linear thinking and the here and now. It's just human nature to have prejudices, think in a linear fashion and gravitate toward an opinion that supports one's own thinking. But, such practices are not objective and tend to lead tow... Lire la suite

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