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Currency Markets: The Next Crisis Has Begun - Toby Connor - Gold Scents

The dollar did not break through the 80.40 handle as asserted in this piece. It began the day at 81.60 and has slipped to 81.27 as this is being written.

While Mr. Connor may be correct about the dollar slipping all the way down to 72 on its index by November of this year, i just do not see it happening. My expectation is that we will see the dollar in the vicinity of 84 at that time. It will do so as a result of trouble in the Euro, which should manifest itself toward the end of September. There are any number of reasons why Europe will be on everyone's radar at that time and none of them are good. But with regard to the dollar, if nothing more than talk of tapering the Fed's QE 3 program has served to bolster dollar strength, imagine what trimming $10B a month from their purchasing program would do for it. And i see that as at least a 50-50 chance by October.

The trouble with Mr. Connor's analysis is that he looks at the dollar in isolation, ignoring what is happening in the rest of the world. As everything is connected, such analysis is largely without merit. A far superior analyst of such matters is Gary Dorsch over at Global Money Trends.

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Début de l'article :Today the dollar broke through 80.40. This is a major development as it signals that the current daily cycle topped in only 2 days, thus confirming that the intermediate cycle has also topped.I've been warning for months and months that this was coming. Anyone with a modicum of common sense knew that printing trillions of dollars was going to eventually have consequences. There is no escaping the inevitable; if you aggressively debase your currency eventually you are going to have a currency cri... Lire la suite

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