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overtheedge
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Pivotal Events - Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

"Cole Porter's classic song "I Get A Kick Out Of You" includes a fascinating line: "Fighting vainly the old ennui."

One could change it to "fighting the old complacency" and become contemplative.

Our guess has been that business reports and the stock market would be positive until the action in spreads becomes dramatic."

If we look at Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, on the lowest tier is a thing called homeostasis. This effectively means lifestyle stability on a personal level.
It also explains a lot of the complacency among investors, unreasonable beliefs in cycles with chartists tendering unfounded nonsense and a whole plethora of hatred for banksters.

Bull markets go on forever (until they don't).
Fibonacci numbers explain it all except we have to allow deviations from exactitude.
Folks read and believe analysts even after the same analyst has been wrong more often than right.
Bankers continue to be bankers and draw the ire from borrowers for forcing the borrowers to honor their contract.
All faults, errors and damn fool decisions were caused by someone else.
If we just make a policy and stick to it, all will be fine in Mudville.

Homo sapiens hates change. It is the antithesis of stability. We attempt to preserve when the nature of nature is change.
Our specie has fought a long hard battle to avoid nature and force stability upon an unstable environment.
In this case, it is the world of finance.
It is fundamentally impossible to maintain any stability in economics when you have eliminated stability in money, when you permit tuning of the financial environment and believe the gnomes have everything under control.

Nature always outs itself.
Everything will revert to the means and then some. The pendulum swings both ways yet it is in harmony with reality.

And homo sapiens, a barely house-broken animal, continues to express its animal heritage.
Animals respond favorably to positive stimuli and remember. Where to find food, water, sex and shelter.
However responses to negative stimuli is slow in coming and memories of the bad experience fade rapidly from the animal's memory bank.
An excellent example is chicken when a hawk flies over. They scatter and hide, but moments later come back out even though the hawk isn't far away.
Although homeostasis is a desired environment, it is a dead end in more than one way.
Look at Maslow's second tier, the security level of homeostasis.

It is most ironic that the only groups that can somewhat avoid devotion to homeostasis are bankers and military special forces.
Charles Darwin made statements alluding to "Survival of the Fittest".
This "fittest" would have better been explained as "most adaptable to a rapidly changing environment".
Ergo military special forces survive and bankers make money.
And complacency is rampant across the realm.
The vast majority don't see it coming and never will.
The same majority has no clear memory of past monetary collapses. They believe it was just a minor anomaly that the gnomes will purposely avoid.
I weep for the specie.

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Début de l'article :The following is part of Pivotal Events that was published for our subscribers July 24, 2014. Signs Of The Times "Social reform, which the country welcomed and still demands, seems to have been perverted by lesser members of the New Deal general staff to the purposes of making war upon the existing social and economic order, a war inspired by nothing more than the existing malice against any measure of personal success." - Wall Street Journal, March 6, 19... Lire la suite

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