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silverback
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Lagging Indicators and Nagging Fundamentals - Andy Sutton - My Two Cents

There is also the possibility that people will run up their consumer credit with the idea that when it is maxed out they have no intention of paying the money back. I am almost 70 and have prided myself that I always pay my debts. Sometimes to the detriment of my families comfort. The government is now rewarding deadbeats. With the new mortgage deal (and don't for a second believe that banks are going to pony up the 25 bil., you and I will in added fees) I have toyed with the idea of cashing in all of my assets, divide them between our children, buy a 1/2 mil. dollar house (with no intention of even making the first payment) and maxing my cards. I will be dead before the dookie hits the fan.

As for the employment picture, the following is from Jim Sinclair's site last week.

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 8.3%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: You just said 8.3%.
ABBOTT: 8.3% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 8.3% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 8.3%…
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 8.3% or 16%?
ABBOTT: 8.3% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.
COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, you can’t count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work, can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To who?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work… Those who are out of work stopped looking.
They gave up and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment rolls, that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how you get to 8.3%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don’t want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?
COSTELLO: That would be frightening.
ABBOTT: Absolutely.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an economist.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!

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Début de l'article :After the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface... Lire la suite

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