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overtheedge
Membre depuis mai 2012
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BEWARE: What If This Retail Silver Investment Shortage Doesn’t End? - Steve St Angelo - SRSRocco Report

I only gave you three stars and here is why.
"However, the important factor to understand is that most investors go after the WELL KNOWN product first and then switch to other products when availability is an issue. Anyone who regurgitates that there is still plenty of silver to purchase fails to grasp the underlying cause of this recent surge in silver investment."

Though partly true, within it is a non sequitur which calls into question your entire thesis.
The reason why folks buy well known products is the hype about liquidity spouted by a myriad of dealers, analysts and outright fools.
If there is some sort of black swan event, all products will increase in price and undoubtedly decrease in availability.
The high premiums exist because people will pay it and because of the mistaken belief that the premium can be passed on to a greater fool.
Low premium goods are readily available and come in the same weights as the well known goods.
Why would any logical reasoning person pay a high premium for one item over another item of the same physical character?
They mistakenly belief that the low premium good will appreciate less than the high premium good.

If you pay a $5USD premium for a silver eagle versus a $3USD premium for a silver medallion, then for every 10 eagles, you could have bought perhaps 12 medallions. And that is if the buyer can only afford a $200 purchase. What about purchases of $500, $1000 or more?
The people need to forget about high premium goods and go for total weight.
And if the world economy goes down the toilet, premiums will increase for all goods.

So here is the non sequitur element again. "Anyone who regurgitates that there is still plenty of silver to purchase fails to grasp the underlying cause of this recent surge in silver investment."
There is plenty of silver to purchase. Just not the high premium goods at the same low, low price.
Just offer $30USD for 2015 silver eagles and they will mysteriously show up.
The surge in silver investment(?) nee speculation in high premium goods is due to fear mongering, bad math skills and the hopes of another big score.

Wise wealth accumulation continues unabated.
Why pay $20 for wealth insurance increments when you can get the same coverage for $17 or less?
Let us assume prices escalate by 5X with silver going from $15/ozt to $75/ozt.
An eagle might go for $85, while a medallion might hit $80.
Notice the premiums have only increased to $10 and $5. That is 2X for the eagle and 1.6X for the medallion. No 5X increase in the premiums at all.
Now imagine that same $200 purchase and the 5X increase.
10 eagles at $85 versus 12 medallions at $80. $850 versus $960.
Simple math like this just isn't that difficult.

Some folks actually bought near the historical high and the premiums weren't outrageous.
Ah, but hidden in the previous sentence is that allusion to history.
Obviously few bother to look back on history unless there is a graph, table or chart with abundant commentary by some analyst to trying to influence the prospective buyer's thought process.

Premiums are based on the seigniorage, distribution and carry costs to include restocking.
Spot prices can fluctuate wildly, but seigniorage and distribution costs usually don't. Even the carry costs tend to be stable (there can be some fluctuations due to changes in interest rates), but the restocking price has to follow the spot price or the dealer will go out of business. The dealers have debt to service just like most of us.
But you all do as you inevitably will.

Commenté il y a 3271 jours

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Début de l'article :Not only has the present retail silver bullion product shortage continued for several months now, what happens if it never ends? This may seem like a play on hype, but if the U.S. or World experiences another Black Swan event like the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, physical silver demand will likely explode to levels much higher than today. One of my readers contacted me yesterday with some interesting information. He stated that he called his coin shop and found out that new Silver Eagle o... Lire la suite

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