When we talked about the gold market in early January it was almost a hand holding exercise, something we have done a few times in the past year. We’re happy to say that our timing with those (we hope) calming missives has been pretty good and the early January message was no different. As the Kitco chart below clearly shows, the year end selling did indeed prove to be short lived. After gathering itself for a few days at the $610 level, gold moved relentlessly back towards $650 by month end. Gold was briefly knocked back in the past couple of days but, again, this has more to do with short term profit taking and sell stops getting hit than it does with anything fundamental.
As we moved through the second half of the month there were a number of stronger than expected US statistics, notably Q4 growth and Consumer Confidence but they caused barely a ripple in the Gold market. As we predicted a month ago, employment numbers indeed weakened significantly in December. We stress again that we don’t expect the US economy to fall apart but it should be weak enough to forestall rate hikes, if not to generate any near term cuts. That alone should be enough to keep a lid on the Dollar.
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