Un analyste de La Société Générale voit l’or à 10.000 dollars

Dylan Grice, un analyse de SocGen explique… à peu près tout, et notamment pourquoi, dans un monde ou toute honnêteté a disparu, le seul repère est l’or, et qu’il vaut désormais plus de 10.000 dollars l’once. Pour les lecteurs de l’anglais, cet article mérite le temps d’être lu. Extraits de l’étude de la Société Générale : The market for honesty: is $10,000 gold fair value? Last week, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) pledged to buy “unlimited” amounts of foreign exchange to prevent the Swiss franc from further appreciating. In other words, it is willing to print “unlimited” quantities of Swiss Francs, tolerating an 'unlimited' debasement of its currency. Why would the Swiss of all people, one of the world’s few remaining 'sound money' proponents make such a commitment? Because unlike its main ‘competitors’ in the market for currency (the major central banks), which are either debasing with abandon or looking as though they’re about to, Switzerland had been rewarded for its rectitude with an uncomfortable share of the world’s flight capital and a painful currency overvaluation. So the SNB has given up trying to be honest in a dishonest world. So let me explain why I believe printing money to be a fundamentally dishonest endeavour. Think about how it works. When the central bank, at zero cost, increases the monetary base by 1%, where does that money go? Answer: into the market for government bonds. Since printing the money to buy government bonds costs nothing, government revenues are obtained ostensibly for free. Of course, it buys those bonds in the secondary market rather than from the government directly, and the pretense of an arm’s length transaction between government and central bank is thus maintained, with all parties claiming a separation of monetary and fiscal policy. But it’s only a pretense. By issuing bonds to itself the government seems to have miraculously raised revenue without burdening anyone else. This is probably why the mechanism is universally adopted throughout the world’s financial system. Yet free money does not, and cannot, exist. Since there can be no such thing as a government, or anyone else for that matter, raising revenue "at no cost" simple logic tells us that someone, somewhere has to pay. But who? This is where the subtle dishonesty resides, because the answer is that no-one knows. If the money printing creates inflation in the product market, the consumers in that produc...

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