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Hu's defeat vs. Jiang's victory
We disagree
with media reports that China's new Politburo Standing Committee is dominated
by relatively conservative members. What we see is a complete defeat of
current President Hu's CCLY clique and a victory of retired President Jiang's
Shanghai clique. In recent days, Jiang's unusually frequent and high-profile
public appearances suggest he is still highly influencing policy making and
senior official appointments.
As a result,
except for new President Xi Jinping (not
necessarily associated with any clique) and new Premier Li Keqiang (Hu's CCYL clique), all of the other five new
committee members are considered associated with Jiang's Shanghai clique or
favored by Jiang. In addition, current President Hu will unexpectedly no
longer serve as military leader after stepping down from the position of
Party leader.
Not necessarily a conservative committee
We believe
the reasons why some may consider the new committee as conservative are: 1)
Zhang Dejiang, who was educated in North Korea, was
appointed the 3rd on the committee, and 2) Candidates like Wang Yang, who has
been outspoken and aggressively called for political reform and grassroots
democracy, were not selected. We don't think it's necessarily the case that
the new committee is so conservative. Newly appointed President Xi Jinping is known for his support for market-oriented
reform. Unlike outgoing President Hu, who came from a humble family, Xi's
princeling background and political resources will enable him to push ahead
reform.
In addition,
the stances that China's leaders hold are not necessarily the same on
political and economic issues. Hu's CCYL clique, especially outgoing Premier
Wen, firmly supports further political reform, but in terms of economic
policies, they focus more on reducing regional imbalances and income
disparity than on market reform. In contrast, Jiang's Shanghai clique tends
to focus more on economic reform but they're more politically conservative.
Another possible reshuffle in 2017
According to
current rule, Politburo Standing Committee members have to retire after
turning 70. If the "retire-at-70" rule doesn't change, five of the
seven members on the new committee will retire after the first five-year
term. In 2017, there is likely to be another reshuffle on the committee; only
President Xi and Premier Li will remain on the committee. Because retired
President Jiang is already 86, he is very unlikely to maintain his current
influence after five years. In addition, all of the five members who will not
be eligible after 2017 are considered associated with Jiang. It's very
likely, at that time, that outgoing President Hu plays a major role in
appointing the next committee, and the policy priority may be changed
accordingly.
The following
table shows the composition and ranking of the new Politburo Standing
Committee as well as their eligibility for reappointment according to current
rule. The other three people were potential candidates but they were not
selected this time.
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