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One is the star of the year so far, grinding higher in
what could be the launch phase of a new bull market as confidence wanes in
the face of NIRP and other desperate global policy actions, and the
realization that this disgraceful policy designed to spur speculation and
asset price appreciation is all policy makers have got left in their bags of
tricks. The endgame is a bag with a hole in it; a monetary
black hole.
The other grinds on in what could be the last significant
hope replenishing bounce before new downside is explored. Various US
and global indexes are already in bear markets but casino patrons are trained
to look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow as "the stock market"
and these have not yet gone 'bear'. If the current bear-trend bounce
fails however, that confirmation would be coming promptly.
The comments above are verified by the charts of gold vs.
the S&P 500 and the Euro STOXX 50. The bullish move and current
consolidation are representative of all major stock markets. This is a
trend change in gold vs. stocks (joining gold vs. commodities, which turned
up long ago).
Charts are and are not lots of things, but one thing they
are is 100% accurate pictures of history. Very recent history has seen
gold break bear market trends as measured in these stock markets. As
you can see by weekly RSI and the MACDs faded into the background gold became
over bought vs. stock markets. That was impulsive and potentially a bull
market signal, but it has also been in need of a cool down, which is thus far
taking the form of a bull flag consolidation, which will provide a test of
the bull thesis.
 
Gold vs. Long-term US Treasury bonds is also making a
step in a positive direction toward trend change, but is not nearly as
advanced.
The above items indicate changing trends in confidence by
the investing masses in global Central Banks that have had a really good run
over the last few years, with ironclad confidence in their policies by
conventional market participants. Of course, hard core gold bugs would
not bow to this unprecedented case of global financial fascism, and for their
beliefs they were served years of pain. Now the cycles appear to be
changing.
Through gold's bear market I, a believer in more honest
monetary systems, had to call it what it was. Beliefs and the biases
they inspire had to be subjugated to the simplicity of charts like this one
that said "Gold is below the EMA 75? It's in a bear market."
Not having cheered gold in the face of the bear evidence, I feel I have the
right to claim now that gold has broken the bear market limiter and made a
strong (but not yet definitive) case for the beginning of a bull market.
As for stocks, the S&P 500 has made a weekly moving
average signal that produced bear markets in 2 of the last 3 instances.
 Yes, the market is
bouncing and we anticipated this in NFTRH well before the current crop of
now-bullish momentum players came out of hiding.
Here is the view of the troubled, but unbroken US
headline indexes. As we have been noting, the SPX and Dow can break
above the weekly EMA 50's and still remain in a bear trend (NDX, in
maintaining a series of higher highs and higher lows is in a relative bull
stance) after bouncing from critical support as expected.
It is in the broader indexes that the US market really
flashes bearish. All items are in intermediate bear trends but bouncing
back to critical former support, now resistance. If they manage to
negate the trends then so be it. We go with what the markets instruct,
not our biases or egos. But the fact is that this is a bear bounce
only, until otherwise indicated.
The global picture is similar, except that most global
stock markets are bouncing from already mature bear trends as opposed to the
US market's newer bear trends.
Transitioning back to gold, the yellow metal is an
insurance policy and a holder of value, long-term. The miners are the
speculation associated with this boring asset and they are decidedly not
boring. While we have been expecting a cool down (AKA correction), this
has not yet come to be. HUI is in the hands of the momentum players
now, desperately buying in so as not to miss the train. Sooner or later
they will be punished and people should be actively managing a sector that
may be birthing a baby bull market per their own orientations (i.e. trade,
buy the dips, etc.). Personally, I mostly trade it now and will look to
establish longer-term positions later.
We call it a potential baby bull not simply because HUI
broke above key resistance (now support) at 140, but due to other signals
like the SPX-Gold and STOXX-Gold ratios above and the HUI-Gold ratio below.
Here is the bigger picture view, also making progress but
with some work to do as the long-term bull signal would come with a cross up
of the moving averages
NFTRH manages not only the general views like those
above, keeping subscribers update to date each week with a detailed report on
events, but also in-week as dynamic markets go through their motions
presenting opportunities to gain capital and also protect it. We have
been right on with the market's themes all along, not by trying to play Swami
or Guru, but by staying on the pulse of macro trends, indicators and market
technicals. That is the only way to manage soundly. Assuming you
are not a day trader or pure momentum player, I am sure that you will find
value in this hard working, time-tested and quality service.
NFTRH.com
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