The Wise Sages of Ancient days used to say, "The fate of a Liar, is that nobody
believes him, - even when he's speaking the truth!" Such is the predicament
of Japan's propaganda artists, including the Prime Minister, the Finance minister,
and central bank chief, who are all trying to cover-up their boldest scheme
yet, to crush the value of the Japanese yen, against the currencies of its
major trading partners. On May 11th, the finance chiefs of the Group of Seven
(G-7) gave Tokyo the green light to continue with its radical QE scheme, which
has already led to a -24% devaluation of the yen against the US-dollar, and
a -33% devaluation against the Euro, since market savvy traders first got wind
of the plot in late November.
In an age when ruling coalitions of every political stripe distort the truth
to promote their self interests, it's hardly surprising that Japan's ruling
LDP party is steadfastly denying that it's engaging in a "beggar thy neighbor" devaluation
of its currency. By the same token, Tokyo's fraudulent claim that its economy
is still plagued by a negative rate of inflation (deflation), is so wildly
at odds with reality that it's routinely regarded with cynicism and disbelief.
On May 9th, the US-dollar's exchange rate rose above the key threshold of ¥100
for the first time in 4-½-years, extending a +30% surge since mid November.
The US-dollar's advance didn't stop at ¥100, - it quickly surged to ¥102
the next day. The sharp move is just the latest episode in the mad scramble
to dump the Japanese yen - as the BoJ unleashes its most radical scheme ever
- "Big Bang" QE - designed to crush the yen's exchange rate. It's already dragged
the Bank of Australia and the Bank of Korea into a regional currency war with
Tokyo, with the Asian central banks cutting their loan rates last week, and
hinting at more to come, trying to cap the rise of the Aussie dollar and the
Korean won against the yen.
Tokyo's "shock and awe," - would double Japan's monetary base from ¥135-trillion
($US1.4-trillion) to ¥270-trillion in two years. This will be achieved
by stepped-up purchases of long-term government bonds (JGB's) , and lifting
the average maturity of its holdings from three to seven years. The BoJ will
buy ¥7-trillion of JGB's per month, - the equivalent of 1% of gross domestic
product (GDP) every month for the remainder of 2013, and 1.1% per month in
2014. Given that Japan's economy is one-third of the size of the US's, the
scope of Japan's QE scheme is three times more potent than the Fed's QE scheme.
Publicly, Tokyo insists that its radical scheme to double in the basic Japanese
money supply over a period of 21-months is purely about trying to end two decades
of prolonged deflation. Apparently, none of the G-7 finance chiefs criticized
the BoJ's monetary easing or the yen's sharp devaluation, during the May 11th
gathering - "Japan's stance is gaining broader understanding," Finance chief
Taro Aso said at a joint press conference. "The BoJ isn't targeting currency
rates, which are determined by the markets," added BoJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda.
In Tokyo, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe added, "I'm not in a position to comment on
an appropriate currency level. Basically, our policies are not aimed at weakening
the yen. Various factors are behind exchange-rate moves. Among them, monetary
policy plays a major one." But he added "the BoJ's policy steps could indirectly
result in a weaker yen and boost share prices, and help to lift corporate earnings," Abe
declared.
Japan to double Monetary Base, Here's Tokyo's sleight of hand, - a devaluation
of a currency, whether deliberate or just a side-effect of QE, is still a tactical
devaluation. The goal of Japan's monetary policy is quite simple - boost the
market value of the Nikkei-225 and Topix indexes by weakening the yen's exchange
rate . As noted in the Wall Street Journal, "The G-20 communiqué offered
a message that "countries can continue to devalue their currencies so long
as they don't explicitly say they want to devalue their currencies. This contradiction
between economic word and deed shows the degree to which policymakers have
defaulted to easy money as the engine of growth. The rest is commentary," the
WSJ's editors wrote.
"This monetary easing is in an entirely new dimension," the newly installed
BoJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda declared, following the bank's April 4th decision.
Kuroda emphasized the break with history, repeatedly pointing to a graph showing
the planned jump in the country's monetary base. "Incremental steps of the
kind we've seen so far weren't going to get us out of deflation. I'm certain
we have now adopted all policies we can think of to meet the +2% price inflation
target. And if prices did not rise as expected, the BoJ would not hesitate
to step up the easing program," Mr Kuroda warned. This radical stance represents
a big sea change from his predecessors, who were faulted for being too ready
to pull back from QE.
Prior to Mr Abe's election victory in mid December, the BoJ kept a relatively
tight rein on the monetary base. Under the guidance of BoJ chief Masaaki Shirakawa,
Japan's monetary base grew at +4% per year, on average, for the 5-year period
ending in December of 2012. There was a brief spike in Japan's monetary base
in March of 2011, when the BoJ took emergency measures to protect the nation's
banking system in the wake of a crippling earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The
BoJ injected a total of ¥60.6-trillion yen ($739-billion) into the Tokyo
money markets, and increasing the monetary base by +23%. However, the short-term
liquidity injections were allowed to fully expire, - draining the excess liquidity.
However, since Nov '12, Japan's monetary base has soared +11% to a record ¥150-trillion,
and now stands +23% higher than a year ago. This time, nobody expects the latest
increase in the money supply to be temporary or rolled back. The BoJ says it
will increase the monetary base until it reaches a whopping ¥270-trillion.
In turn, the tsunami of excess liquidity flowing from Tokyo is expected to
crush the value of the Japanese yen against its trading partners, while fueling
bubbles in global stock markets, via the infamous "Yen Carry" trade, which
could grow in size to more than $1-trillion of highly leverage bets.
Japan abandons Older Policy of FX Intervention, adopts full scale QE, For
Tokyo, the nuclear option of central banking - QE, - is working to crush the
exchange rate of the yen, whereas its past policies of direct interventions
in the foreign currency markets, mostly failed. Nearly 21-months ago, Japan
injected ¥4.5-trillion into the currency markets, and bought $58-billion
in one day's work of intervention as it acted strongly to put a floor under
the US$ at ¥76. Traders said the Bank of Japan intervened on behalf of
the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on August 4, 2011, concentrating its firepower
in the US-dollar against the yen. However, that intervention foray couldn't
even lift the US$ much above ¥79. A few months later, in Nov '11, the US$
was sagging again, and tumbled to Tokyo's red line in the sand at ¥76.
Japan is estimated to have injected ¥8-trillion on Oct 31st, 2011 alone,
a daily record, and spent about ¥1 trillion in the days that followed in
follow-up action probably intended to keep markets more on edge for fear of
more big moves. The MoF admitted that it sold a record ¥9.1- trillion yen
and bought $115-billion in currency intervention in the month through Nov 28th,
2011. The MoF still has sizable ammunition for intervention - it has parliamentary
approval to borrow up to ¥37-trillion to be used for future yen-selling
interventions. Although the US$ did rebound by ¥6 in Q'1 of 2012, to as
high as ¥82.5 in March '12, the rally soon fizzled out. By June of 2012,
the US$ had fallen back again to ¥77.
Tokyo Engineers big Nikkei Rally As a side note, on Mar 21st, 2011, corporate
raider Warren Buffett made a bold prediction, saying that the devastating impact
of the earthquake and tsunami to hit Japan's economy, was the kind of extraordinary
event that creates a buying opportunity for shares in Japanese companies. "It
will take some time to rebuild, but it will not change the economic future
of Japan. Frequently, something out of the blue like this, an extraordinary
event, really creates a buying opportunity. I have seen that happen in the
US, I have seen that happen around the world. I don't think Japan will be an
exception," said the 80-year-old "Sage of Omaha" known for his long-term investing
strategy. Buffet was correct, - a little more than two years later, the Nikkei-225
is surging towards the 15,000-level, up +56% from the 9,600-level that prevailed
when Buffet made his prediction.
However, it was a very rocky road for the Nikkei-225's recovery. Buffet's
Bullish prediction was placed in great doubt in May of 2012, when the Nikkei-225
fell to the 8,542-level, capping a -10% decline for the month. Short selling
of Japanese stocks accounted for 32% of the total value of shares traded in
the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The yen's strength against the US-dollar and against
the Euro in 2011 was crushing the income of Japanese Multi-Nationals' earned
from overseas. Sony earns 70% of its revenue outside Japan and Panasonic 48%.
Japan's biggest makers of phones, televisions and chips - Sony 6758.T, Panasonic
6752.T and Sharp 6753.T lost a combined $17-billion for the fiscal year, -
the worst losses in their histories. Fitch Ratings lowered the debt ratings
of both Sony and Panasonic one notch to BBB-, keeping both on negative outlook,
while lowering the outlook on Sharp's BBB- to negative, and was poised to downgrade
all three companies to junk status in the next 12 months.
However, it's a completely different outlook today. Thanks to Tokyo's shift
to Big-bang QE - Japan's Nikkei-225 index has surged +75% higher since mid-November,
reaching for 15,000, its highest level in 5-½-years. The earnings season
is in full swing, and the yen's fall enables Japanese exporters to earn more
from foreign currency profits. On May 13th, blue-chip exporters soared, with
Panasonic jumping +7.6% higher after saying its operating profit will likely
jump +55% this fiscal year. Hitachi <6501.T> surged +7.8% after it forecast
a +18.5% jump in operating profit for this fiscal year. For every 1-yen increase
in the US-dollar's value, - it leads to a +2.4% increase in Nissan Motor's
operating profit and +3.3% at Toyota Motor. Overall, Nikkei-225 companies'
operating profits are expected to rise +28% compared with a year ago, if the
US-dollar can stay near ¥100.
BoJ aims to fuel Inflation by Crushing the Yen, On April 22nd - Japan's central
bank chief Kuroda reiterated that Japan's Big-bang QE scheme would continue
until Japan achieves a +2% inflation rate. Mirroring Kuroda's views, Finance
chief Taro Aso said the yen's weakness is a "byproduct of QE," but the ultimate
aim is to end deflation and boost economic growth. " My position is that the
yen's decline may have resulted from our policies, but the aim of our policies
is to escape deflation. Yen weakness is a byproduct," he explained.
Crushing the value of the yen is about the only mechanism that Tokyo has readily
available in order to boost Japan's inflation rate to +2%. That's a pretty
tall order, since Tokyo massages its inflation data, and uses fuzzy math to
calculate its cost of living index. The methodology is completely under the
control of Tokyo's financial warlords, and the inflation data is routinely
rigged to show a perpetual pattern of deflation. Last week, Japan said its
consumer price index was -0.9% lower in April, compared with a year earlier.
Once every five years, the Japanese government revises the basket of products
used to derive its consumer price index to better reflect trends in household
spending. Government apparatchiks routinely remove the goods and services that
are increasing in price from the index, and replace them with goods and services
that are falling in price. At the last revision in July '11, Tokyo shaved -0.75%
off its CPI rate. Five years earlier, it shaved -0.50% off its CPI. In other
words, the brazen BoJ could triple its money supply, before Tokyo would ever
admit that its inflation rate has reached +2% that's common everywhere else
in the world.
BoJ chief Kuroda sounded confident on May 11th that the central bank could
prevent an upward spike in Japanese bond yields. "I do not expect a sudden
spike in long-term bond yields. In the long-run, if the economy recovers and
inflation heads towards +2%, we might see nominal interest rates rise but that's
natural." The rigging of Japan's CPI data is to be expected, so JGB traders
should only trust the actual prices in the global commodity markets for real-time
clues about the future direction of inflation, and not rely on doctored-up
government statistics.
Despite Kuroda's belief that the BoJ can easily continue to manhandle Japan's
$10.5-trillion government bond (JGB), some market investors are starting to
question the wisdom of owning ultra-low yielding JGB's. On May 13th, ten-year
JGB futures price posted its biggest three-day drop in 2-½-years, and
skidded to a 1-year low. The Tokyo Stock Exchange briefly suspended JGB trading
as a circuit breaker was triggered. The 10-year cash bond yield shot upwards
to as high as 0.86%, extending its biggest surge in 5-years.
JGB yields initially plunged in a knee-jerk reaction to a historic low of
0.315% upon hearing the details of the BoJ's scheme to purchase of ¥ 7.5-trillion
of JGB's each month, which might lead to a scarcity of bonds. But it did not
take a single day for the market to reverse course. The 10-year yield is now
more than 2.5-times as high as it record low of 0.315% hit on April 4th. As
part of its two-year Big-bang QE, the BoJ bought ¥ 1.2-trillion of bonds
on May 13th, but that failed to stop the uptick in JGB yields to 0.86%. Still,
for Nikkei bulls, - there's no need to panic - as the 10-year yield is still
comfortably below 1%.
How long can Tokyo's financial warlords continue brainwash the Japanese public
into believing that the bogeyman of deflation is still haunting its economy?
No doubt, MoF apparatchiks will continue to fudge the official inflation numbers.
However, the truth is, - the Continuous Commodity Index, measuring the cost
of a basket of 17-equally weighted commodities, is now trading +26% higher
than a year ago, when priced in yen. A further weakening of the yen would only
increase the cost of imported goods for Japanese consumers. Already, the cost
for imported fossil fuels jumped +10% last year to ¥24-trillion, even before
the US$ crossed ¥90 . Be careful of what you wish for, since a higher cost
of living can sap the disposable income of your citizens, and lift JGB yields,
which in turn, can also cause an economic recession.
How high can US$ fly, versus Yen? If the yen begins to plummet into a free-fall,
Japan's competitors in China, Germany, Korea and the US might cry foul and
demand that Tokyo either scale back its Big-bang QE operations or stop them
completely. Otherwise, other central banks might push back against Tokyo in
a full scale currency war, the likes of which, the world has never seen before.
However, Tokyo is confident it can prevent a free-fall of the yen, and that
it can carefully orchestrate a gradual devaluation, with verbal Jawboning exercises
and utilizing its enormous war chest of foreign currency reserves, now totaling
$1.26-trillion, and mostly consisting of US-dollars.
Although Japan is supposed to refrain from using its FX reserves for purposes
of direct intervention in the currency markets, according to the Feb 12th G-20
communiqué, the renegade BoJ is expected to begin clandestine sales
of US-dollars at higher levels, in order to keep a two-way market intact, and
prevent a currency free-fall. Where would Tokyo try to cap the US-dollar's
advance? On January 18th, Koichi Hamada, the chief architect of "Abenomics," gave
a subtle hint to reporters at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in
Tokyo , saying the US-dollar can rise to ¥ 110 before excessive inflation
risks kick in. "If the US-dollar goes above ¥110, there may be reason for
worry," he said, signaling that Tokyo would try to engineer a rally for the
US-dollar in staggered step patterns, - gaining about ¥3 and pulling back ¥1,
until it reaches ¥110.
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